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Monetary Policy in a Small Open Economy with a Preference for Robustness

  • Dennis, Richard
  • Leitemo, Kai
  • Söderström, Ulf

We use robust control techniques to study the effects of model uncertainty on monetary policy in an estimated, semi-structural, small-open-economy model of the U.K. Compared to the closed economy, the presence of an exchange rate channel for monetary policy not only produces new trade-offs for monetary policy, but it also introduces an additional source of specification errors. We find that exchange rate shocks are an important contributor to volatility in the model, and that the exchange rate equation is particularly vulnerable to model misspecification, along with the equation for domestic inflation. However, when policy is set with discretion, the cost of insuring against model misspecification appears reasonably small.

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Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 6067.

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Date of creation: Jan 2007
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Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:6067
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  1. Dennis, Richard, 2007. "Optimal Policy In Rational Expectations Models: New Solution Algorithms," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 11(01), pages 31-55, February.
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  24. Tommaso Monacelli, 2003. "Monetary Policy in a Low Pass-Through Environment," Working Papers 228, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
  25. Kenneth D. West, 2004. "Monetary Policy and the Volatility of Real Exchange Rates in New Zealand," NBER Working Papers 10280, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  26. Leitemo, Kai & Söderström , Ulf, 2004. "Robust monetary policy in the New-Keynesian framework," Research Discussion Papers 31/2004, Bank of Finland.
  27. Calvo, Guillermo A., 1983. "Staggered prices in a utility-maximizing framework," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 383-398, September.
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  29. Bennett T. McCallum & Edward Nelson, 2000. "Nominal Income Targeting in an Open-Economy Optimizing Model," NBER Working Papers 6675, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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