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External Shocks and Monetary Policy. Does it Pay to Respond to Exchange Rate Desviations?

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  • Rodrigo Caputo

    () (Central Bank of Chile, Agustinas 1180, Santiago, Chile.)

Abstract

There is substantial evidence suggesting that central banks in open economies react to exchange rate fluctuations, in addition to expected inflation and output. In some developing countries this reaction is comparatively larger and it is nonlinear. In an estimated structural macro model for Chile, this paper assesses the advantages and potential costs of adopting such a reaction function. We conclude that, in the face of most of the external shocks, a policy rule that responds to exchange rate misalignments smooths inflation and output variability, while marginally increasing interest rate fluctuations. On the other hand, for some domestic innovations such a rule performs poorly. When all the shocks are considered at the same time, this rule generates important welfare gains. Finally, when the volatility of external shocks rises, increasing the response to exchange rate misalignments brings welfare improvements. In fact, a more aggressive response to the exchange rate offsets the impact that greater external volatility has on output and inflation, at the cost of inducing higher interest rate fluctuations. In this way, one can interpret the nonlinear reaction to the exchange rate as an optimal response to a more volatile external environment. JEL Classification: D43, L13

Suggested Citation

  • Rodrigo Caputo, 2009. "External Shocks and Monetary Policy. Does it Pay to Respond to Exchange Rate Desviations?," Revista de Analisis Economico – Economic Analysis Review, Ilades-Georgetown University, Universidad Alberto Hurtado/School of Economics and Bussines, vol. 24(1), pages 55-99, Junio.
  • Handle: RePEc:ila:anaeco:v:24:y:2009:i:1:p:55-99
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    Cited by:

    1. Alberto Naudon & Joaquín Vial, 2016. "The evolution of inflation in Chile since 2000," BIS Papers chapters,in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Inflation mechanisms, expectations and monetary policy, volume 89, pages 93-116 Bank for International Settlements.
    2. Argov, Eyal & Elkayam, David, 2007. "An Estimated New Keynesian Model for Israel," MPRA Paper 9412, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Argov, Eyal & Binyamini, Alon & Elkayam, David & Rozenshtrom, Irit, 2007. "A Small Macroeconomic Model to Support Inflation Targeting in Israel," MPRA Paper 4784, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Ronald H. Lange, 2013. "Monetary policy reactions and the exchange rate: a regime-switching structural VAR for Canada," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 27(5), pages 612-632, September.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Small Open Economy; Optimal Monetary Policy; Taylor Rules; Exchange Rate.;

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E53 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Deposit Insurance

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