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European Inflation Dynamics

  • Galí, Jordi
  • Gertler, Mark
  • López-Salido, J David

We provide evidence on the fit of the New Phillips Curve (NPC) for the Euro area over the period 1970–1998, and use it as a tool to compare the characteristics of European inflation dynamics with those observed in the U.S. We also analyse the factors underlying inflation inertia by examining the cyclical behaviour of marginal costs, as well as that of its two main components, namely, labour productivity and real wages. Some of the findings can be summarized as follows: (a) the NPC fits Euro area data very well, possibly better than US data, (b) the degree of price stickiness implied by the estimates is substantial, but in line with survey evidence and US estimates, (c)\ inflation dynamics in the Euro area appear to have a stronger forward-looking component (i.e., less inertia) than in the US, (d) labour market frictions, as manifested in the behaviour of the wage markup, appear to have played a key role in shaping the behaviour of marginal costs and, consequenty, inflation in Europe.

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Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 2684.

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Date of creation: Jan 2001
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:2684
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  1. Stock, James H. & Watson, Mark W., 1999. "Forecasting inflation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 293-335, October.
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  4. Blanchard, Olivier & Wolfers, Justin, 2000. "The Role of Shocks and Institutions in the Rise of European Unemployment: The Aggregate Evidence," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 110(462), pages C1-33, March.
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  8. Gunter Coenen & Volker Wieland, 2000. "A Small Estimated Euro-Area Model with Rational Expectations and Nominal Rigidities," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 1284, Econometric Society.
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  12. Roberts, John M., 1997. "Is inflation sticky?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(2), pages 173-196, July.
  13. Benabou, R., 1991. "Inflation and Markups: Theories and Evidence from the Retail Trade Sector," Working papers 587, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
  14. Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Charles L. Evans, 1996. "Sticky price and limited participation models of money: a comparison," Staff Report 227, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
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  17. Fuhrer, Jeffrey C. & Moore, George R. & Schuh, Scott D., 1995. "Estimating the linear-quadratic inventory model Maximum likelihood versus generalized method of moments," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 115-157, February.
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  25. Taylor, John B, 1980. "Aggregate Dynamics and Staggered Contracts," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 88(1), pages 1-23, February.
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