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New Keynesian Phillips Curves: a reassessment using euro-area data

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  • McAdam, Peter
  • Willman, Alpo

Abstract

Using euro-area data, we re-examine the empirical success of New Keynesian Phillips Curves (NKPCs). The nature of our re-evaluation relies on the actual empirical underpinnings of such estimates: we find existing estimates un-robust and - given that key parameters are generally calibrated rather than estimated - potentially at odds with the data. We re-estimate with a wellspecified optimizing supply-side (which attempts to treat non-stationarity in factor income shares and mark-ups) and this allows us to derive estimates of technology parameters and marginal costs. Our resulting estimates of the euro-area NKPCs are robust, provide reasonable estimates for fixed-price durations and discount rates and embody plausible dynamic properties. Our method for identifying and estimating New Keynesian Phillips curves has general applicability to a wide set of countries and might also be used in identifying sectoral NKPCs. JEL Classification: E31

Suggested Citation

  • McAdam, Peter & Willman, Alpo, 2003. "New Keynesian Phillips Curves: a reassessment using euro-area data," Working Paper Series 265, European Central Bank.
  • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:2003265
    Note: 50336
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    File URL: https://www.ecb.europa.eu//pub/pdf/scpwps/ecbwp265.pdf
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    Cited by:

    1. Carl R. Gwin & David D. Van Hoose, 2008. "Disaggregate Evidence On Price Stickiness And Implications For Macro Models," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 46(4), pages 561-575, October.
    2. Fabio Rumler, 2007. "Estimates of the Open Economy New Keynesian Phillips Curve for Euro Area Countries," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 18(4), pages 427-451, September.
    3. Rumler, Fabio & Valderrama, Maria Teresa, 2010. "Comparing the New Keynesian Phillips Curve with time series models to forecast inflation," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 126-144, August.
    4. Nicoletta Batini, 2006. "Euro area inflation persistence," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 31(4), pages 977-1002, November.
    5. Alistair Dieppe & Jerome Henry & Peter Mc Adam, "undated". "Labour market dynamics in the euro area: A model-based sensitivity analysis," Modeling, Computing, and Mastering Complexity 2003 09, Society for Computational Economics.
    6. Maritta Paloviita, 2008. "Comparing alternative Phillips curve specifications: European results with survey-based expectations," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(17), pages 2259-2270.
    7. Carlos A. Medel, 2015. "Inflation Dynamics and the Hybrid New Keynesian Phillips Curve: The Case of Chile," Monetaria, Centro de Estudios Monetarios Latinoamericanos, CEMLA, vol. 0(1), pages 25-69, january-j.
    8. Fabio Rumler, 2006. "The New Keynesian Phillips Curve for Austria – An Extension for the Open Economy," Monetary Policy & the Economy, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 4, pages 55-69.
    9. Ascari, Guido & Rankin, Neil, 2007. "Perpetual youth and endogenous labor supply: A problem and a possible solution," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 708-723, December.
    10. Paloviita, Maritta, 2005. "The role of expectations in euro area inflation dynamics," Scientific Monographs, Bank of Finland, number 2005_032.
    11. Filippo Altissimo & Michael Ehrmann & Frank Smets, 2006. "Inflation persistence and price-setting behaviour in the euro area : a summary of the Inflation Persistence Network evidence," Working Paper Research 95, National Bank of Belgium.
    12. Carlos A. Medel, 2018. "Forecasting Inflation with the Hybrid New Keynesian Phillips Curve: A Compact-Scale Global VAR Approach," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(3), pages 331-371, July.
    13. Luis F. Céspedes & Marcelo Ochoa & Claudio Soto, 2005. "The New Keynesian Phillips Curve in an Emerging Market Economy: The Case of Chile," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 355, Central Bank of Chile.
    14. Vermeulen, Philip, 2007. "Can adjustment costs explain the variability and counter-cyclicality of the labour share at the firm and aggregate level?," Working Paper Series 772, European Central Bank.
    15. Nicoletta Batini, 2006. "Euro area inflation persistence," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 31(4), pages 977-1002, November.
    16. Sigal Ribon, 2004. "A New Phillips Curve for Israel," Bank of Israel Working Papers 2004.11, Bank of Israel.
    17. repec:onb:oenbwp:y::i:102:b:1 is not listed on IDEAS
    18. Filippo Altissimo & Michael Ehrmann & Frank Smets, 2006. "Inflation persistence and price-setting behaviour in the euro area – a summary of the IPN evidence," Occasional Paper Series 46, European Central Bank.
    19. Ieva Rubene & Paolo Guarda, 2004. "The new Keynesian Phillips curve: empirical results for Luxembourg," BCL working papers 11, Central Bank of Luxembourg.
    20. Peter McAdam & Alpo Willman, 2004. "Supply, Factor Shares and Inflation Persistence: Re‐examining Euro‐area New‐Keynesian Phillips Curves," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 66(s1), pages 637-670, September.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Euro-Area; inflation dynamics; Phillips Curves; supply-side;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation

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