IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Login to save this article or follow this journal

Euro area inflation persistence

  • Nicoletta Batini

    ()

This paper presents evidence on the lag between monetary policy actions and the response of inflation in the euro area as a whole as well as in Germany, Italy and France. In line with previous findings for the US and the UK, results here show that this lag is longer than one year both in the euro area and in individual countries, and that a lag of this length has existed in Europe at least since the collapse of the Bretton Woods system, despite the numerous changes in European monetary policy regime thereafter. Results based on alternative definitions of inflation persistence support these findings, although, they suggest that at the country level, a drop in German inflation persistence and a sizeable shift in the mean of inflation particularly in Italy and France are beyond doubt. The paper shows that euro area inflation persistence could well be an intrinsic phenomenon rather than a ?statistical fluke? due to aggregation. JEL Classification: E4, E5

(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1007/s00181-006-0064-7
Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.

Article provided by Springer in its journal Empirical Economics.

Volume (Year): 31 (2006)
Issue (Month): 4 (November)
Pages: 977-1002

as
in new window

Handle: RePEc:spr:empeco:v:31:y:2006:i:4:p:977-1002
Contact details of provider: Postal: Stumpergasse 56, A-1060 Vienna
Phone: ++43 - (0)1 - 599 91 - 0
Fax: ++43 - (0)1 - 599 91 - 555
Web page: http://link.springer.de/link/service/journals/00181/index.htm

More information through EDIRC

Order Information: Web: http://link.springer.de/orders.htm

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Davis, George K & Kanago, Bryce E, 2000. "The Level and Uncertainty of Inflation: Results from OECD Forecasts," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 38(1), pages 58-72, January.
  2. Clarida, Richard & Gali, Jordi & Gertler, Mark, 1997. "Monetary Policy Rules in Practice: Some International Evidence," Working Papers 97-32, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University.
  3. Jondeau, E. & Le Bihan, H., 2001. "Testing for a Forward-Looking Phillips Curve. Additional Evidence from European and US Data," Working papers 86, Banque de France.
  4. Gerlach, Stefan & Svensson, Lars E. O., 2003. "Money and inflation in the euro area: A case for monetary indicators?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(8), pages 1649-1672, November.
  5. Coenen, Gunter & Wieland, Volker, 2005. "A small estimated euro area model with rational expectations and nominal rigidities," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 49(5), pages 1081-1104, July.
  6. Gabriel Fagan & JÊrÆme Henry, 1998. "Long run money demand in the EU: Evidence for area-wide aggregates," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 23(3), pages 483-506.
  7. Laurence Ball, 1990. "Credible Disinflation with Staggered Price Setting," NBER Working Papers 3555, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Julio Rotemberg & Michael Woodford, 1997. "An Optimization-Based Econometric Framework for the Evaluation of Monetary Policy," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1997, Volume 12, pages 297-361 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Jeremy Rudd & Karl Whelan, 2001. "New tests of the New-Keynesian Phillips curve," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2001-30, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  10. Christopher Sims & Tao Zha, 2002. "Macroeconomic switching," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Mar.
  11. Benoît Mojon, 1997. "Looking for French Monetary Policy," Working Papers 1997-10, CEPII research center.
  12. Galí, Jordi & Gertler, Mark & López-Salido, J David, 2001. "European Inflation Dynamics," CEPR Discussion Papers 2684, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  13. Margaret M. McConnell & Gabriel Perez Quiros, 1998. "Output fluctuations in the United States: what has changed since the early 1980s?," Staff Reports 41, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  14. Richard Clarida & Jordi Gali & Mark Gertler, 1998. "Monetary Policy Rules and Macroeconomic Stability: Evidence and Some Theory," NBER Working Papers 6442, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  15. Michael Woodford, 2001. "The Taylor Rule and Optimal Monetary Policy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(2), pages 232-237, May.
  16. Rudebusch, Glenn & Svensson, Lars, 1999. "Eurosystem Monetary Targeting: Lessons from U.S. Data," Seminar Papers 672, Stockholm University, Institute for International Economic Studies.
  17. Christopher J. Erceg & Andrew T. Levin, 2001. "Imperfect credibility and inflation persistence," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2001-45, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  18. Jeff Fuhrer & George Moore, 1993. "Inflation persistence," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 93-17, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  19. Pierpaolo Benigno & David López-Salido, 2002. "Inflation persistence and optimal monetary policy in the euro area," International Finance Discussion Papers 749, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  20. Issing, Otmar, 1997. "Monetary targeting in Germany: The stability of monetary policy and of the monetary system," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 67-79, June.
  21. Coenen, Gunter, 2007. "Inflation persistence and robust monetary policy design," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 111-140, January.
  22. Timothy Cogley & Thomas J. Sargent, 2002. "Evolving Post-World War II U.S. Inflation Dynamics," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2001, Volume 16, pages 331-388 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  23. Fuhrer, Jeffrey C, 1997. "The (Un)Importance of Forward-Looking Behavior in Price Specifications," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 29(3), pages 338-50, August.
  24. Laurence Ball & N Gregory Mankiw & Ricardo Reis, 2003. "Monetary Policy for Inattentive Economies," Economics Working Paper Archive 491, The Johns Hopkins University,Department of Economics.
  25. Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Charles Evans, 2001. "Nominal Rigidities and the Dynamic Effects of a Shock to Monetary Policy," NBER Working Papers 8403, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  26. Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Charles L. Evans, 1997. "Monetary policy shocks: what have we learned and to what end?," Working Paper Series, Macroeconomic Issues WP-97-18, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
  27. Mojon, Benoît & Kashyap, Anil K. & Angeloni, Ignazio & Terlizzese, Daniele, 2002. "Monetary Transmission in the Euro Area : Where Do We Stand?," Working Paper Series 0114, European Central Bank.
  28. Angeloni, Ignazio & Dedola, Luca, 1999. "From the ERM to the euro: new evidence on economic and policy convergence among EU countries," Working Paper Series 0004, European Central Bank.
  29. Gali, Jordi & Gertler, Mark, 1999. "Inflation dynamics: A structural econometric analysis," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 195-222, October.
  30. Gunter Coenen & Volker Wieland, 2002. "Inflation dynamics and international linkages: a model of the United States, the euro area, and Japan," International Finance Discussion Papers 745, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  31. Granger, C. W. J., 1980. "Long memory relationships and the aggregation of dynamic models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 14(2), pages 227-238, October.
  32. Carlo Favero & Francesco Giavazzi & Luigi Spaventa, 1996. "High Yields: The Spread on German Interest Rates," NBER Working Papers 5408, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  33. Batini, Nicoletta & Nelson, Edward, 2001. "The Lag from Monetary Policy Actions to Inflation: Friedman Revisited," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 4(3), pages 381-400, Winter.
  34. Steinar Holden & John C. Driscoll, 2001. "A Note on Inflation Persistence," NBER Working Papers 8690, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  35. Monticello, Carlo & Tristani, Oreste, 1999. "What does the single monetary policy do? A SVAR benchmark for the European Central Bank," Working Paper Series 0002, European Central Bank.
  36. McAdam, Peter & Willman, Alpo, 2003. "New Keynesian Phillips Curves: a reassessment using euro-area data," Working Paper Series 0265, European Central Bank.
  37. Glenn D. Rudebusch, 1996. "Do measures of monetary policy in a VAR make sense?," Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory 96-05, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  38. Fagan, Gabriel & Henry, Jérôme & Mestre, Ricardo, 2001. "An area-wide model (AWM) for the euro area," Working Paper Series 0042, European Central Bank.
  39. Bårdsen, Gunnar & Jansen, Eilev S. & Nymoen, Ragnar, 2003. "Testing the New Keynesian Phillips curve," Memorandum 18/2002, Oslo University, Department of Economics.
  40. Mojon, Benoît & Peersman, Gert, 2001. "A VAR description of the effects of monetary policy in the individual countries of the euro area," Working Paper Series 0092, European Central Bank.
  41. Nicoletta Batini & Brian Jackson & Stephen Nickell, 2002. "The Pricing Behaviour of UK Firms," Discussion Papers 09, Monetary Policy Committee Unit, Bank of England.
  42. Kuttner, Kenneth N & Posen, Adam S, 2001. "Beyond Bipolar: A Three-Dimensional Assessment of Monetary Frameworks," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 6(4), pages 369-87, October.
  43. Nicoletta Batini & Joseph Pearlman, 2002. "Too Much Too Soon: Instability and Indeterminacy with Forward-Looking Rules," Discussion Papers 08, Monetary Policy Committee Unit, Bank of England.
  44. Neil R. Ericsson & David F. Hendry & Grayham E. Mizon, 1998. "Exogeneity, cointegration, and economic policy analysis," International Finance Discussion Papers 616, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  45. V. Anton Muscatelli & Patrizio Tirelli & Carmine Trecroci, 1998. "Institutional Change, Inflation Targeting and the Stability of Interest Rate Reaction Functions," Working Papers 20, University of Milano-Bicocca, Department of Economics, revised Oct 1998.
  46. Shumway, C. Richard & Davis, George C., 2001. "Does consistent aggregation really matter?," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 45(2), June.
  47. Ma, Adrian, 2002. "GMM estimation of the new Phillips curve," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 76(3), pages 411-417, August.
  48. Wesche, Katrin, 1996. "Aggregation Bias in Estimating European Money Demand Functions," Discussion Paper Serie B 393, University of Bonn, Germany.
  49. Nicoletti-Altimari, Sergio, 2001. "Does money lead inflation in the euro area?," Working Paper Series 0063, European Central Bank.
  50. Smets, Frank, 2000. "What horizon for price stability," Working Paper Series 0024, European Central Bank.
  51. Taylor, John B., 2000. "Low inflation, pass-through, and the pricing power of firms," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 44(7), pages 1389-1408, June.
  52. Gunter Coenen & Juan Luis Vega, 2000. "The Demand for M3 in the Euro Area," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 0976, Econometric Society.
  53. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2003. "Has the Business Cycle Changed and Why?," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2002, Volume 17, pages 159-230 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  54. Peersman, Gert & Smets, Frank, 2001. "The monetary transmission mechanism in the euro area: more evidence from VAR analysis," Working Paper Series 0091, European Central Bank.
  55. Buiter, Willem H & Jewitt, Ian, 1981. "Staggered Wage Setting with Real Wage Relativities: Variations on a Theme of Taylor," The Manchester School of Economic & Social Studies, University of Manchester, vol. 49(3), pages 211-28, September.
  56. Calvo, Guillermo A., 1983. "Staggered prices in a utility-maximizing framework," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 383-398, September.
  57. Trecroci, Carmine & Vega, Juan Luis, 2000. "The information content of M3 for future inflation," Working Paper Series 0033, European Central Bank.
  58. Benoît Mojon, 1998. "Monetary Policy Under a Fixed Exchange Rate Regime, the Case of France 1987-1996," Working Papers 1998-14, CEPII research center.
  59. Friedman, Milton, 1972. "Have Monetary Policies Failed?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 62(2), pages 11-18, May.
  60. von Hagen, J, 1995. "Inflation and Monetary Targeting in Germany," Papers 03, American Institute for Contemporary German Studies-.
  61. Artus, P. & Avouyi-Dovi, S. & Bleuze, E. & Lecointe, F., 1991. "Transmission of U.S. monetary policy to Europe and asymmetry in the European monetary system," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 35(7), pages 1369-1384, October.
  62. Nicoletta Batini & Brian Jackson & Stephen Nickell, 2000. "Inflation Dynamics and the Labour Share in the UK," Discussion Papers 02, Monetary Policy Committee Unit, Bank of England.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:empeco:v:31:y:2006:i:4:p:977-1002. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Sonal Shukla)

or (Christopher F Baum)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.