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High Yielders: the Spread on German Interest Rates

Author

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  • Carlo Ambrogio Favero
  • Francesco Giavazzi
  • Luigi Spaventa

Abstract

This paper is a first attempt at evaluating the determinants of the total interest rate differentials on government bonds between high yielders, namely Spain, Italy, Sweden, and Germany. In particular, we address the question of the relative importance of local and global factors in the determination of such spreads. We identify and measure two components of total yield differentials: one due to expectations of exchange rate depreciation, which we call the exchange rate factor; and another which reflects the market assessment of default risk. We propose and discuss a measure of the exchange rate factors and of the default risk premium based on interest rates swaps. Overall our investigation provides strong evidence in favour of the existence of a common trend for the Spanish and Italian spreads on Bunds, which is not shared by the Swedish spread. Such trend is driven by international factors and is independent from country-specific shocks. Country-specific shocks are only relevant in explaining short-term cycles around the common stochastic trend.
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Suggested Citation

  • Carlo Ambrogio Favero & Francesco Giavazzi & Luigi Spaventa, "undated". "High Yielders: the Spread on German Interest Rates," Working Papers 102, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
  • Handle: RePEc:igi:igierp:102
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    JEL classification:

    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • F30 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - General

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