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The Lag from Monetary Policy Actions to Inflation: Friedman Revisited

  • Batini, Nicoletta
  • Nelson, Edward

This paper updates and extends Friedman's (1972) evidence on the lag between monetary policy actions and the response of inflation. Our evidence is based on UK and US data for the period 1953-2001 on money growth rates, inflation and interest rates, as well as annual data on money growth and inflation. We reaffirm Friedman's result that it takes over a year before monetary policy actions have their peak effect on inflation. This result has persisted despite numerous changes in monetary policy arrangements in both countries. Similarly, advances in information processing and in financial market sophistication do not appear to have substantially shortened the lag. The empirical evaluation of dynamic general equilibrium models needs to be extended to include an assessment of these models' ability to account for the monetary transmission lags found in the data. Copyright 2001 by Blackwell Publishers Ltd.

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Article provided by Wiley Blackwell in its journal International Finance.

Volume (Year): 4 (2001)
Issue (Month): 3 (Winter)
Pages: 381-400

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Handle: RePEc:bla:intfin:v:4:y:2001:i:3:p:381-400
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  1. Friedman, Benjamin M & Kuttner, Kenneth N, 1992. "Money, Income, Prices, and Interest Rates," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(3), pages 472-92, June.
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  8. Gerlach, Stefan & Svensson, Lars E. O., 2003. "Money and inflation in the euro area: A case for monetary indicators?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(8), pages 1649-1672, November.
  9. Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Charles L. Evans, 2001. "Nominal rigidities and the dynamic effects of a shock to monetary policy," Working Paper 0107, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
  10. Laurence H. Meyer & Chris Varvares, 1981. "A comparison of the St. Louis Model and two variations: predictive performance and policy implications," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Dec, pages 13-25.
  11. Jeffrey C. Fuhrer, 2000. "Habit Formation in Consumption and Its Implications for Monetary-Policy Models," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(3), pages 367-390, June.
  12. Rochelle M. Edge, 2000. "Time-to-build, time-to-plan, habit-persistence, and the liquidity effect," International Finance Discussion Papers 673, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  13. Lucas, Robert Jr., 1972. "Expectations and the neutrality of money," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 4(2), pages 103-124, April.
  14. V. V. Chari & Patrick J. Kehoe & Ellen R. McGrattan, 2000. "Sticky Price Models of the Business Cycle: Can the Contract Multiplier Solve the Persistence Problem?," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 68(5), pages 1151-1180, September.
  15. Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Charles L. Evans, 1997. "Monetary policy shocks: what have we learned and to what end?," Working Paper Series, Macroeconomic Issues WP-97-18, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
  16. Kenneth N. Kuttner & Adam S. Posen, 2001. "Beyond Bipolar: A Three-Dimensional Assessment of Monetary Frameworks," Working Paper Series WP01-7, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
  17. Frederic S. Mishkin & Adam S. Posen, 1998. "Inflation Targeting: Lessons from Four Countries," NBER Working Papers 6126, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  18. Michael F. Bryan & William T. Gavin, 1991. "A different kind of money illusion: the case of long and variable lags," Working Paper 9122, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
  19. Friedman, Milton, 1972. "Have Monetary Policies Failed?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 62(2), pages 11-18, May.
  20. Whitney K. Newey & Kenneth D. West, 1986. "A Simple, Positive Semi-Definite, Heteroskedasticity and AutocorrelationConsistent Covariance Matrix," NBER Technical Working Papers 0055, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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  23. Christopher J. Erceg and Andrew T. Levin, 2001. "Imperfect Credibility and Inflation Persistence," Computing in Economics and Finance 2001 19, Society for Computational Economics.
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  25. repec:cup:macdyn:v:3:y:1999:i:2:p:278-91 is not listed on IDEAS
  26. Bennett T. McCallum, 1999. "Analysis of the Monetary Transmission Mechanism: Methodological Issues," NBER Working Papers 7395, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  27. Andrew Levin & Christopher J. Erceg & Dale W. Henderson, 1999. "Optimal Monetary Policy with Staggered Wage and Price Contracts," Computing in Economics and Finance 1999 1151, Society for Computational Economics.
  28. Nelson, Edward, 2001. "What Does the UK's Monetary Policy and Inflation Experience Tell Us About the Transmission Mechanism?," CEPR Discussion Papers 3047, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  29. Huffman, Wallace E & Lothian, James R, 1980. "Money in the United Kingdom, 1833-80," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 12(2), pages 155-74, May.
  30. McCallum, Bennett T., 1999. "An Interview With Robert E. Lucas, Jr," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 3(02), pages 278-291, June.
  31. Milton Friedman & Anna Jacobson Schwartz, 1970. "Monetary Statistics of the United States: Estimates, Sources, Methods," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number frie70-1, December.
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