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Testing the New Keynesian Phillips curve

Author

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  • Bårdsen, Gunnar

    () (Norges Bank, University of Oslo and Norwegian University of Science and Technology)

  • Jansen, Eilev S.

    (Dept. of Economics, University of Oslo)

  • Nymoen, Ragnar

    () (Dept. of Economics, University of Oslo)

Abstract

The dynamic properties of the The New Keynesian Phillips curve (NPC) is analysed within the framework of a small system of linear di.erence equations.We evaluate the empirical results of existing studies which uses ‘Euroland’ and US data. The debate has been centered around the goodness-of-fit, but this is a weak criterion since the NPC-fit is typically well approximated by purely statistical models (e.g., a random walk). Several other parametric tests are then considered, and the importance of modelling a system that includes the forcing variables as well as the rate of inflation is emphasized. We also highlight the role of existing studies in providing new information relative to that which underlies the typical NPC. This encompassing approach is applied to open economy versions of the NPC for UK and Norway.

Suggested Citation

  • Bårdsen, Gunnar & Jansen, Eilev S. & Nymoen, Ragnar, 2003. "Testing the New Keynesian Phillips curve," Memorandum 18/2002, Oslo University, Department of Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:hhs:osloec:2002_018
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    File URL: http://www.sv.uio.no/econ/english/research/unpublished-works/working-papers/pdf-files/2002/Memo-18-2002.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Eilev S. Jansen, 2004. "Modelling inflation in the Euro Area," Working Paper Series 4104, Department of Economics, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, revised 01 Jun 2004.
    2. John C. Driscoll & Steinar Holden, 2002. "Coordination, Fair Treatment and Inflation Persistence," NBER Working Papers 9174, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Wallis, Kenneth F., 2004. "Comparing empirical models of the euro economy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 21(5), pages 735-758, September.
    4. Nicoletta Batini, 2006. "Euro area inflation persistence," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 31(4), pages 977-1002, November.
    5. Gunnar Bårdsen & Eilev S. Jansen & Ragnar Nymoen, 2002. "The Empirical (ir)Relevance of the New Keynesian Phillips Curve," Working Paper Series 2102, Department of Economics, Norwegian University of Science and Technology.
    6. Robert J. Gordon, 2013. "The Phillips Curve is Alive and Well: Inflation and the NAIRU During the Slow Recovery," NBER Working Papers 19390, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Pål Boug & Ådne Cappelen & Anders Rygh Swensen, 2006. "The New Keynesian Phillips Curve for a Small Open Economy," Discussion Papers 460, Statistics Norway, Research Department.
    8. Luca Bindelli, 2005. "Testing the New Keynesian Phillips curve: a frequency domain approach," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2005 69, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
    9. Ieva Rubene & Paolo Guarda, 2004. "The new Keynesian Phillips curve: empirical results for Luxembourg," BCL working papers 11, Central Bank of Luxembourg.
    10. McAdam, Peter & Willman, Alpo, 2003. "New Keynesian Phillips Curves: a reassessment using euro-area data," Working Paper Series 265, European Central Bank.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    New Keynesian Phillips curves; US inflation; Euro inflation; UK inflation; Norwegian inflation; Monetary policy; Dynamic stability conditions; Evaluation; Encompassing tests;

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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