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New Keynesian Phillips Curve and inflation dynamics in Australia

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  • Abbas, Syed Kanwar
  • Sgro, Pasquale M.

Abstract

The New Keynesian Phillips Curve (NKPC) was developed as a response to the New Classical critique that Keynesian macroeconomics lacked micro-foundations. The NKPC provides theoretical micro-foundations that attempt to explain, inter alia, nominal rigidities and, explicitly price stickiness. This paper investigates the validity of the NKPC for Australia. In contrast to the findings for the USA and Euro area, we find that neither the output gap nor marginal cost appears to be a key driving force variable across different set of instruments and estimators (GMM and 2SLS) over the sample period from 1959 to 2009. The flattening of the NKPC along with significant presence of price stickiness is also found in the data. In particular, the reduced form coefficients and implied estimates from the structural parameters of the model support the view that inflation dynamics are forward looking while the role of lagged inflation is also statistically important only after 1980s. However, we claim that the forward looking baseline NKPC contrary to the hybrid NKPC is stable and better explains inflation dynamics for the Australian economy.

Suggested Citation

  • Abbas, Syed Kanwar & Sgro, Pasquale M., 2011. "New Keynesian Phillips Curve and inflation dynamics in Australia," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 2022-2033, July.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:28:y:2011:i:4:p:2022-2033
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Tiwari, Aviral Kumar & Oros, Cornel & Albulescu, Claudiu Tiberiu, 2014. "Revisiting the inflation–output gap relationship for France using a wavelet transform approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 464-475.
    2. Carlos A. Medel, 2015. "Inflation Dynamics and the Hybrid New Keynesian Phillips Curve: The Case of Chile," Monetaria, Centro de Estudios Monetarios Latinoamericanos, vol. 0(1), pages 25-69, january-j.
    3. Abbas, Syed K. & Bhattacharya, Prasad Sankar & Sgro, Pasquale, 2016. "The new Keynesian Phillips curve: An update on recent empirical advances," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 378-403.
    4. Medel, Carlos A., 2015. "Forecasting Inflation with the Hybrid New Keynesian Phillips Curve: A Compact-Scale Global VAR Approach," MPRA Paper 67081, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Syed Kanwar Abbas & Prasad Sankar Bhattacharya & Debdulal Mallick & Pasquale Sgro, 2016. "The New Keynesian Phillips Curve in a Small Open Economy: Empirical Evidence from Australia," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 92(298), pages 409-434, September.
    6. repec:bla:ecorec:v:92:y:2016:i:299:p:548-567 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. repec:exl:25engi:v:27:y:2016:i:3:p:276-284 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Malikane, Christopher, 2012. "The microfoundations of the Keynesian wage-price spiral," MPRA Paper 42921, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 29 Nov 2012.
    9. Xu, Yingying & Chang, Hsu-Ling & Lobonţ, Oana-Ramona & Su, Chi-Wei, 2016. "Modeling heterogeneous inflation expectations: empirical evidence from demographic data?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 153-163.
    10. Malikane, Christopher, 2014. "A new Keynesian triangle Phillips curve," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 247-255.
    11. Goyal, Ashima & Arora, Sanchit, 2016. "Estimating the Indian natural interest rate: A semi-structural approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 141-153.
    12. Christopher Malikane & Tshepo Mokoka, 2014. "The new Keynesian Phillips curve: endogeneity and misspecification," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 46(25), pages 3082-3089, September.
    13. Malikane, Christopher, 2012. "Inflation dynamics and the cost channel in emerging markets," MPRA Paper 42688, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Szafranek, Karol, 2017. "Flattening of the New Keynesian Phillips curve: Evidence for an emerging, small open economy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 334-348.
    15. Ahrens, Steffen & Hartmann, Matthias, 2014. "State-dependence vs. timedependence: An empirical multi-country investigation of price sluggishness," Kiel Working Papers 1907, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).

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