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Inflation dynamics and the New Keynesian Phillips curve in EU-4

Author

Listed:
  • Borek Vasícek

    (Departament d'Economia Aplicada, Universitat Autonoma de Barcelona)

Abstract

The paper seeks to shed light on inflation dynamics of four new EU member states: the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland and Slovakia. To this end, the New Keynesian Phillips curve augmented for open economies is estimated and additional statistical tests applied. We find the following. (1) The claim of New Keynesians that the real marginal cost is the main inflation-forcing variable is fragile. (2) Inflation seems to be driven by external factors. (3) Although inflation holds a forward- looking component, the backward-looking component is substantial. An intuitive explanation for higher inflation persistence may be rather adaptive than rational price setting of local firms.

Suggested Citation

  • Borek Vasícek, 2009. "Inflation dynamics and the New Keynesian Phillips curve in EU-4," Working Papers wpdea0912, Department of Applied Economics at Universitat Autonoma of Barcelona.
    • Handle: RePEc:uab:wprdea:wpdea0912
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    Cited by:

    1. Katarína Danišková & Jarko Fidrmuc, 2011. "Inflation Convergence and the New Keynesian Phillips Curve in the Czech Republic," Czech Economic Review, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, vol. 5(2), pages 099-115, August.
    2. Tomislav Globan & Vladimir Arčabić & Petar Sorić, 2016. "Inflation in New EU Member States: A Domestically or Externally Driven Phenomenon?," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 52(1), pages 154-168, January.
    3. Vít Pošta, 2015. "Semi-structural estimates of time-varying NAIRU based on the new Keynesian Phillips curve: evidence from Eastern European economies," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 49(4), pages 1217-1243, December.
    4. Ahmad Zubaidi Baharumshah & Siew-Voon Soon & Mark E. Wohar, 2021. "Phillips Curve for the Asian Economies: A Nonlinear Perspective," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 57(12), pages 3508-3537, September.
    5. Malikane, Christopher, 2014. "A new Keynesian triangle Phillips curve," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 247-255.
    6. Daniela Milučká, 2014. "Inflation dynamics in the Czech Republic: Estimation of the New Keynesian Phillips curve," International Journal of Economic Sciences, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2014(2), pages 53-70.
    7. Melecky, Martin, 2012. "Macroeconomic dynamics in Macedonia and Slovakia: Structural estimation and comparison," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 1377-1387.
    8. Carlos A. Medel, 2018. "Forecasting Inflation with the Hybrid New Keynesian Phillips Curve: A Compact-Scale Global VAR Approach," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(3), pages 331-371, July.
    9. Sushanta Mallick & Ricardo Sousa, 2013. "Commodity Prices, Inflationary Pressures, and Monetary Policy: Evidence from BRICS Economies," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 24(4), pages 677-694, September.
    10. repec:rau:journl:v:20:y:2025:i:2:p:65-84 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Baxa, Jaromír & Plašil, Miroslav & Vašíček, Bořek, 2015. "Changes in inflation dynamics under inflation targeting? Evidence from Central European countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 116-130.
    12. Vašíček, Bořek, 2012. "Is monetary policy in the new EU member states asymmetric?," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 235-263.
    13. Selen Başer Andiç & Hande Küçük & Fethi Öğünç, 2015. "Inflation Dynamics in Turkey: In Pursuit of a Domestic Cost Measure," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 51(2), pages 418-431, March.
    14. Katarína Danišková & Jarko Fidrmuc, 2012. "Meta-Analysis of the New Keynesian Phillips Curve," Working Papers 314, Leibniz Institut für Ost- und Südosteuropaforschung (Leibniz Institute for East and Southeast European Studies).

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation

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