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A New Keynesian Triangle Phillips Curve

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  • Malikane, Christopher

Abstract

We propose a solution to address the observed negative sign on the marginal cost variable in new Keynesian Phillips curve estimations. Our solution is based on an elaborate specification of the cost function faced by firms and the formulation of a reduced-form production function which is characterised by non-linear input-output relations. The resultant Phillips curve features the standard hybrid expectational term, labour share, output gap, speed-limit effects and supply shock variables. In general, GMM estimations of the model for developed and emerging markets yield a positive and significant coefficient on the labour share and the output gap. We conclude that supply shock variables are essential to the empirical validity of the cost-based Phillips curve.

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  • Malikane, Christopher, 2013. "A New Keynesian Triangle Phillips Curve," MPRA Paper 43548, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:43548
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    2. Karol Szafranek, 2016. "Linking excessive disinflation and output movements in an emerging, small open economy A hybrid New Keynesian Phillips Curve perspective," NBP Working Papers 239, Narodowy Bank Polski, Economic Research Department.
    3. Rinke, Saskia & Busch, Marie & Leschinski, Christian, 2017. "Long Memory, Breaks, and Trends: On the Sources of Persistence in Inflation Rates," Hannover Economic Papers (HEP) dp-584, Leibniz Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät.
    4. Lasha Arevadze & Tamta Sopromadze & Giorgi Tsutskiridze & Shalva Mkhatrishvili, 2020. "Identifying the Phillips Curve in Georgia," NBG Working Papers 01/2020, National Bank of Georgia.
    5. Phiri, Andrew, 2016. "Changes in inflation persistence prior and subsequent to the subprime crisis: What are the implications for South Africa?," MPRA Paper 70645, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Szafranek, Karol, 2017. "Flattening of the New Keynesian Phillips curve: Evidence for an emerging, small open economy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 334-348.
    7. Granville, Brigitte & Zeng, Ning, 2019. "Time variation in inflation persistence: New evidence from modelling US inflation," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 30-39.
    8. Kalim Hyder & Stephen G. Hall, 2020. "Estimates of the New Keynesian Phillips Curve for Pakistan," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 59(2), pages 871-886, August.
    9. Xu, Qifa & Niu, Xufeng & Jiang, Cuixia & Huang, Xue, 2015. "The Phillips curve in the US: A nonlinear quantile regression approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 186-197.
    10. Lee, Dong Jin & Yoon, Jai Hyung, 2016. "The New Keynesian Phillips Curve in multiple quantiles and the asymmetry of monetary policy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 102-114.
    11. Xu, Yingying & Chang, Hsu-Ling & Lobonţ, Oana-Ramona & Su, Chi-Wei, 2016. "Modeling heterogeneous inflation expectations: empirical evidence from demographic data?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 153-163.
    12. Rasaki, Mutiu Gbade & Malikane, Christopher, 2015. "Macroeconomic shocks and fluctuations in African economies," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 39(4), pages 675-696.

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    Keywords

    new Keynesian Phillips curve; marginal cost; supply shocks;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • B22 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - History of Economic Thought since 1925 - - - Macroeconomics

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