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Understanding the dynamics of labor shares and inflation

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  • Lawless, Martina
  • Whelan, Karl T.

Abstract

Calvo-style models of nominal rigidities currently provide the dominant paradigm for understanding the linkages between wage and price dynamics. Recent empirical implementations stress the idea that these models link inflation to the behavior of the labor share of income. GaI´ et al. (2001) argue that the model explains the combination of declining inflation and labor shares in Euro area. In this paper, we show that with realistic parameters, the canonical Calvo-style model cannot explain the joint behavior of inflation and the labor share in Europe. In addition, we show that the model fails very badly in sectoral data with consistently negative estimated coefficients on the labor share in a number of different inflation specifications. Indeed, the use of a traditional output gap measure proved more successful in terms of a positive relationship with inflation.

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  • Lawless, Martina & Whelan, Karl T., 2011. "Understanding the dynamics of labor shares and inflation," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 121-136, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jmacro:v:33:y:2011:i:2:p:121-136
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    Cited by:

    1. Milda Norkute, 2015. "Can the sectoral New Keynesian Phillips curve explain inflation dynamics in the Euro Area?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 49(4), pages 1191-1216, December.
    2. Abbas, Syed K. & Bhattacharya, Prasad Sankar & Sgro, Pasquale, 2016. "The new Keynesian Phillips curve: An update on recent empirical advances," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 378-403.
    3. Kuttner, Ken & Robinson, Tim, 2010. "Understanding the flattening Phillips curve," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 110-125, August.
    4. Sekine, Toshitaka, 2009. "Another look at global disinflation," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 220-239, June.
    5. Emna Trabelsi, 2016. "Transparency on inflation of OECD countries? An Application of LSDVC Estimator on a dynamic Panel Model," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 36(2), pages 1095-1126.
    6. Agénor, Pierre-Richard & Bayraktar, Nihal, 2010. "Contracting models of the Phillips curve empirical estimates for middle-income countries," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 555-570, June.
    7. Christoffel, Kai & Kuester, Keith & Linzert, Tobias, 2009. "The role of labor markets for euro area monetary policy," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 53(8), pages 908-936, November.
    8. Claire A. Reicher, 2016. "Matching labor’s share in a search and matching model," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 50(4), pages 1229-1254, June.
    9. Luciano BOGGIO & Vincenzo DALL’AGLIO & Marco MAGNANI, 2010. "On Labour Shares in Recent Decades: A Survey," Rivista Internazionale di Scienze Sociali, Vita e Pensiero, Pubblicazioni dell'Universita' Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, vol. 118(3), pages 283-333.
    10. Girardi, Riccardo & Paruolo, Paolo, 2013. "Wages and prices in Europe before and after the onset of the Monetary Union," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 643-653.
    11. Malikane, Christopher, 2014. "A new Keynesian triangle Phillips curve," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 247-255.
    12. Sandeep Mazumder, 2012. "The Volcker--Greenspan--Bernanke Phillips Curve," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(4), pages 387-391, March.
    13. Christopher Malikane & Tshepo Mokoka, 2014. "The new Keynesian Phillips curve: endogeneity and misspecification," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 46(25), pages 3082-3089, September.
    14. Chi, Wei & Qian, Xiaoye, 2013. "Regional disparity of labor's share in China: Evidence and explanation," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 277-293.
    15. repec:ilo:ilowps:484122 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. Medel, Carlos A., 2015. "Forecasting Inflation with the Hybrid New Keynesian Phillips Curve: A Compact-Scale Global VAR Approach," MPRA Paper 67081, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. Petrella, Ivan & Santoro, Emiliano, 2012. "Inflation dynamics and real marginal costs: New evidence from U.S. manufacturing industries," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 36(5), pages 779-794.
    18. Benjamin Bridgman, 2014. "Is Labor's Loss Capital's Gain? Gross versus Net Labor Shares," BEA Working Papers 0114, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
    19. Dünhaupt, Petra., 2013. "Determinants of functional income distribution : theory and empirical evidence," ILO Working Papers 994841223402676, International Labour Organization.
    20. Belanger, Gilles, 2014. "The Overlooked Assumption Behind the New Keynesian Phillips Curve," MPRA Paper 55629, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    21. Aurelijus Dabušinskas & Dmitry Kulikov, 2007. "New Keynesian Phillips curve for Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania," Bank of Estonia Working Papers 2007-07, Bank of Estonia, revised 26 Aug 2007.
    22. Guerriero, Marta & Sen, Kunal, 2012. "What Determines the Share of Labour in National Income? A Cross-Country Analysis," IZA Discussion Papers 6643, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
    23. Michael Siegenthaler & Tobias Stucki, 2014. "Dividing the Pie: The Determinants of Labor's Share of Income on the Firm Level," KOF Working papers 14-352, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich.

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    Keywords

    Inflation Labor shares;

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity

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