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The new Keynesian Phillips curve revisited

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  • Boug, Pål
  • Cappelen, Adne
  • Swensen, Anders Rygh

Abstract

Several authors have questioned the evidence claimed by Galí and Gertler (1999) and Galí et al. (2001) that a hybrid version of the new Keynesian Phillips curve approximates European and US inflation dynamics quite well. We re-examine the evidence using the vector autoregressive framework and likelihood based methods, paying particular attention to the stationary and nonstationary, and possibly cointegrated, nature of variables involved. Our results show that the exact as well as the inexact form of the hybrid NKPC are clearly at odds with the European data. On the other hand, Galí and Gertler (1999) finding that the inexact hybrid NKPC is a "good first approximation" to the US inflation dynamics seems less at odds with the data. However, the assumption of the model that the stochastic term forms a sequence of innovations may be problematic as we find indication of autocorrelation in the estimated residuals. The exact form of the hybrid NKPC is firmly rejected by the US data.

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  • Boug, Pål & Cappelen, Adne & Swensen, Anders Rygh, 2010. "The new Keynesian Phillips curve revisited," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 34(5), pages 858-874, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:dyncon:v:34:y:2010:i:5:p:858-874
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    2. Rao, B. Bhaskara & Paradiso, Antonio, 2011. "Estimates of the US Phillips curve with the general to specific method," MPRA Paper 28411, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Malikane, Christopher & Mokoka, Tshepo, 2012. "Monetary policy credibility: A Phillips curve view," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(3), pages 266-271.
    4. Tiwari, Aviral Kumar & Oros, Cornel & Albulescu, Claudiu Tiberiu, 2014. "Revisiting the inflation–output gap relationship for France using a wavelet transform approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 464-475.
    5. Sophocles Mavroeidis & Mikkel Plagborg-Møller & James H. Stock, 2014. "Empirical Evidence on Inflation Expectations in the New Keynesian Phillips Curve," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 52(1), pages 124-188, March.
    6. Soeren Johansen & Anders Rygh Swensen, 2021. "Adjustment coefficients and exact rational expectations in cointegrated vector autoregressive models," Discussion Papers 21-07, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics.
    7. Arye L. Hillman, 2008. "Globalization And Social Justice," The Singapore Economic Review (SER), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 53(02), pages 173-189.
    8. Nymoen, Ragnar & Swensen, Anders Rygh & Tveter, Eivind, 2012. "Interpreting the evidence for New Keynesian models of inflation dynamics," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 253-263.
    9. Fanelli, Luca, 2008. "Evaluating New Keynesian Phillips Curve under VAR-Based Learning," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 2, pages 1-24.
    10. Takamitsu Kurita & Patrick James, 2022. "The Canadian–US dollar exchange rate over the four decades of the post‐Bretton Woods float: An econometric study allowing for structural breaks," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 73(3), pages 856-883, July.
    11. Swensen, Anders Rygh, 2014. "Some exact and inexact linear rational expectation models in vector autoregressive models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 123(2), pages 216-219.
    12. Giray Gozgor, 2013. "The New Keynesian Phillips Curve in an Inflation Targeting Country: The Case of Turkey," International Journal of Business and Economic Sciences Applied Research (IJBESAR), International Hellenic University (IHU), Kavala Campus, Greece (formerly Eastern Macedonia and Thrace Institute of Technology - EMaTTech), vol. 6(1), pages 7-18, April.
    13. Krogh, Tord S., 2015. "Macro frictions and theoretical identification of the New Keynesian Phillips curve," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 191-204.
    14. Pål Boug & Ådne Cappelen & Eilev S. Jansen & Anders Rygh Swensen, 2021. "The Consumption Euler Equation or the Keynesian Consumption Function?," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 83(1), pages 252-272, February.
    15. Andreas Benedictow & Pål Boug, 2013. "Trade liberalisation and exchange rate pass-through: the case of textiles and wearing apparels," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 45(2), pages 757-788, October.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    European and US inflation The new Keynesian Phillips curve Exact and inexact rational expectations Vector autoregressive models Likelihood based methods;

    JEL classification:

    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation

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