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Estimates of the US Phillips curve with the general to specific method

  • Rao, B. Bhaskara
  • Paradiso, Antonio

This paper distinguishes between the long run and short run Phillips curve (PC) and uses the micro theory based specification, with forward looking expectations, for the long run PC. The long run and the implied short run dynamic equations are estimated in one step with the general to specific method (GETS). Our approach has two distinct advantages. Firstly, classical estimation methods can be used, irrespective of the stationarity properties of the variables. Secondly, instead of arbitrarily adding the lagged inflation rate to the theory based long run PC to capture persistence in inflation, our approach shows that persistence effects can also be captured through the dynamic adjustment equations. This has an added advantage because it offers a more flexible lag structure to estimate dynamic adjustments compared to the partial adjustment process in the hybrid NKPC.

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File URL: http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/28411/3/MPRA_paper_28411.pdf
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Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 28411.

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Date of creation: 16 Jan 2011
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Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:28411
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  1. Boug, Pål & Cappelen, Adne & Swensen, Anders Rygh, 2010. "The new Keynesian Phillips curve revisited," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 34(5), pages 858-874, May.
  2. B. Bhaskara Rao & Rup Singh & Saten Kumar, 2010. "Do we need time series econometrics?," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(7), pages 695-697.
  3. B. Bhaskara Rao, 2007. "Estimating short and long-run relationships: a guide for the applied economist," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 39(13), pages 1613-1625.
  4. Jordi Gali & Mark Gertler, 2000. "Inflation Dynamics: A Structural Econometric Analysis," NBER Working Papers 7551, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Guerron-Quintana, Pablo A., 2011. "The implications of inflation in an estimated new Keynesian model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 35(6), pages 947-962, June.
  6. Robert Shimer, 2012. "Reassessing the Ins and Outs of Unemployment," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 15(2), pages 127-148, April.
  7. Rudd, Jeremy & Whelan, Karl, 2003. "Can Rational Expectations Sticky-Price Models Explain Inflation Dynamics," Research Technical Papers 5/RT/03, Central Bank of Ireland.
  8. Jeremy Rudd & Karl Whelan, 2005. "Modelling inflation dynamics: a critical review of recent research," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2005-66, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  9. Pearce, Douglas K, 1979. "Comparing Survey and Rational Measures of Expected Inflation: Forecast Performance and Interest Rate Effects," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 11(4), pages 447-56, November.
  10. Baghestani, Hamid & Noori, Esmail, 1988. "On the rationality of the Michigan monthly survey of inflationary expectations," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 27(4), pages 333-335.
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