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Mis-Specification in Phillips Curve Regressions: Quantifying Frequency Dependence in This Relationship While Allowing for Feedback

  • Richard A. Ashley
  • Randall J. Verbrugge.

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File URL: http://ashleymac.econ.vt.edu/working_papers/ashley_verbrugge.pdf
File Function: First version, 2003
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Paper provided by Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University, Department of Economics in its series Working Papers with number e06-11.

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Length: 50 pages
Date of creation: 2006
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:vpi:wpaper:e06-11
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  1. Robert J. Gordon, 1998. "Foundations of the Goldilocks Economy: Supply Shocks and the Time-Varying NAIRU," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 29(2), pages 297-346.
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  3. Robert G. King & James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1995. "Temporal instability of the unemployment-inflation relationship," Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, issue May, pages 2-12.
  4. Comin, D. & Gertler, M., 2003. "Medium Term Business Cycles," Working Papers 03-05, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University.
  5. Jeremy Rudd & Karl Whelan, 2006. "Can Rational Expectations Sticky-Price Models Explain Inflation Dynamics?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(1), pages 303-320, March.
  6. Wouter J. Den Haan & Steven Sumner, 2001. "The Comovements between Real Activity and Prices in the G7," NBER Working Papers 8195, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Gruen, David & Pagan, Adrian & Thompson, Christopher, 1999. "The Phillips curve in Australia," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 223-258, October.
  8. Ramsey James B. & Lampart Camille, 1998. "The Decomposition of Economic Relationships by Time Scale Using Wavelets: Expenditure and Income," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 3(1), pages 1-22, April.
  9. Robert J. Hodrick & Edward Prescott, 1981. "Post-War U.S. Business Cycles: An Empirical Investigation," Discussion Papers 451, Northwestern University, Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science.
  10. Lawrence J. Christiano & Terry J. Fitzgerald, 2003. "The Band Pass Filter," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 44(2), pages 435-465, 05.
  11. Lawrence J. Christiano & Terry J. Fitzgerald, 2003. "Inflation and monetary policy in the twentieth century," Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, issue Q I, pages 22-45.
  12. King, Thomas B. & Morley, James, 2007. "In search of the natural rate of unemployment," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(2), pages 550-564, March.
  13. Thoma, Mark A, 1992. "The Effects of Inside and Outside Money on Industrial Production across Spectral Frequency Bands," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 74(4), pages 737-41, November.
  14. Richard A. Ashley. & Randall J. Verbrugge, 2006. "Frequency Dependence in Regression Model Coefficients: An Alternative Approach for Modeling Nonlinear Dynamic Relationships in Time Series," Working Papers e06-7, Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University, Department of Economics.
  15. Francis X. Diebold & Lee E. Ohanian & Jeremy Berkowitz, 1995. "Dynamic Equilibrium Economies: A Framework for Comparing Models and Data," NBER Technical Working Papers 0174, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  16. Engle, Robert F, 1978. "Testing Price Equations for Stability across Spectral Frequency Bands," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(4), pages 869-81, July.
  17. Jeffrey C. Fuhrer, 1995. "The Phillips curve is alive and well," New England Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, issue Mar, pages 41-56.
  18. Marianne Baxter & Robert G. King, 1999. "Measuring Business Cycles: Approximate Band-Pass Filters For Economic Time Series," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 81(4), pages 575-593, November.
  19. Ashley, Richard, 1984. "A Simple Test for Regression Parameter Instability," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 22(2), pages 253-68, April.
  20. Jordi Gali & Mark Gertler, 2000. "Inflation Dynamics: A Structural Econometric Analysis," NBER Working Papers 7551, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  21. Harvey, Andrew C, 1978. "Linear Regression in the Frequency Domain," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 19(2), pages 507-12, June.
  22. Edmund S. Phelps, 1968. "Money-Wage Dynamics and Labor-Market Equilibrium," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 76, pages 678.
  23. Jeremy Rudd & Karl Whelan, 2007. "Modeling Inflation Dynamics: A Critical Review of Recent Research," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(s1), pages 155-170, 02.
  24. Jushan Bai & Pierre Perron, 2003. "Computation and analysis of multiple structural change models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 18(1), pages 1-22.
  25. Simon M. Potter, 1999. "Nonlinear impulse response functions," Staff Reports 65, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  26. John C. Williams, 2004. "Robust estimation and monetary policy with unobserved structural change," Working Paper Series 2004-11, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  27. Robert J. Gordon, 1996. "The Time-Varying NAIRU and its Implications for Economic Policy," NBER Working Papers 5735, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  28. Luca Benati & George Kapetanios, 2003. "Structural Breaks in Inflation Dynamics," Computing in Economics and Finance 2003 169, Society for Computational Economics.
  29. Timothy Cogley & Thomas J. Sargent, 2002. "Evolving Post-World War II U.S. Inflation Dynamics," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2001, Volume 16, pages 331-388 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  30. Thomas Laubach & John C. Williams, 2003. "Measuring the Natural Rate of Interest," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 85(4), pages 1063-1070, November.
  31. Stock, James H. & Watson, Mark W., 1999. "Business cycle fluctuations in us macroeconomic time series," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 1, pages 3-64 Elsevier.
  32. Douglas Staiger & James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1997. "The NAIRU, Unemployment and Monetary Policy," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 11(1), pages 33-49, Winter.
  33. Athanasios Orphanides & John C. Williams, 2002. "Robust monetary policy rules with unknown natural rates," Working Paper Series 2003-01, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  34. Bai, Jushan, 1997. "Estimating Multiple Breaks One at a Time," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 13(03), pages 315-352, June.
  35. Perron, P. & Bai, J., 1995. "Estimating and Testing Linear Models with Multiple Structural Changes," Cahiers de recherche 9552, Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en économie quantitative, CIREQ.
  36. Guy Debelle & James Vickery, 1997. "Is the Phillips Curve a Curve? Some Evidence and Implications for Australia," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp9706, Reserve Bank of Australia.
  37. Stock, James H. & Watson, Mark W., 1999. "Forecasting inflation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 293-335, October.
  38. anonymous, 2005. "Financial market risk premiums: time variation and macroeconomic links, Federal Reserve Board, Washington, D.C., July 21-22, 2005," Proceedings, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  39. Tan, Hui Boon & Ashley, Richard, 1999. "Detection And Modeling Of Regression Parameter Variation Across Frequencies," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 3(01), pages 69-83, March.
  40. Peter C.B. Phillips, 1988. "Spectral Regression for Cointegrated Time Series," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 872, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  41. Flint Brayton & John M. Roberts & John C. Williams, 1999. "What's happened to the Phillips curve?," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1999-49, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  42. Laurence Ball & N. Gregory Mankiw, 2002. "The NAIRU in Theory and Practice," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 1963, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
  43. Richard A. Ashley & Randal J. Verbrugge, 2009. "To difference or not to difference: a Monte Carlo investigation of inference in vector autoregression models," International Journal of Data Analysis Techniques and Strategies, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 1(3), pages 242-274.
  44. Farley, John U. & Hinich, Melvin & McGuire, Timothy W., 1975. "Some comparisons of tests for a shift in the slopes of a multivariate linear time series model," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 3(3), pages 297-318, August.
  45. repec:cup:macdyn:v:3:y:1999:i:1:p:69-83 is not listed on IDEAS
  46. repec:cup:etheor:v:13:y:1997:i:3:p:315-52 is not listed on IDEAS
  47. Theodore M. Crone & Leonard I. Nakamura & Richard Voith, 2001. "Measuring American rents: a revisionist history," Working Papers 01-8, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
  48. Thoma, Mark A, 1994. "The Effects of Money Growth on Inflation and Interest Rates across Spectral Frequency Bands," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 26(2), pages 218-31, May.
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