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Estimating Short and Long Run Relationships: A Guide to the Applied Economist


  • Bhaskara Rao

    (University of the South Pacific)


Many applied economists face problems in selecting an appropriate technique to estimate short and long run relationships with the time series methods. This paper reviews three alternative approaches viz., general to specific (GETS), vector autoregressions (VAR) and the vector error correction models (VECM). As in other methodological controversies, definite answers are difficult. It is suggested that if these techniques are seen as tools to summarize data, as in Smith (2000), often there may be only minor differences in their estimates. Therefore a computationally attractive technique is likely to be popular.

Suggested Citation

  • Bhaskara Rao, 2005. "Estimating Short and Long Run Relationships: A Guide to the Applied Economist," Econometrics 0508013, EconWPA.
  • Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpem:0508013
    Note: Type of Document - pdf; pages: 28. Useful to the applied economists.

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Pesaran, M.H. & Shin, Y., 1995. "An Autoregressive Distributed Lag Modelling Approach to Cointegration Analysis," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9514, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
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    6. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Hafez Rehman, 2005. "Stability of the money demand function in Asian developing countries," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(7), pages 773-792.
    7. Alogoskoufis, George & Smith, Ron, 1991. " On Error Correction Models: Specification, Interpretation, Estimation," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 5(1), pages 97-128.
    8. Hendry, David F. & Pagan, Adrian R. & Sargan, J.Denis, 1984. "Dynamic specification," Handbook of Econometrics,in: Z. Griliches† & M. D. Intriligator (ed.), Handbook of Econometrics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 18, pages 1023-1100 Elsevier.
    9. Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Publishing House "SINERGIA PRESS", vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
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    11. Pesaran, M.H. & Smith, R., 1992. "The Interaction Between Theory and Observation in Economics," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9223, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
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    Cited by:

    1. Saten Kumar & Don J. Webber, 2013. "Australasian money demand stability: application of structural break tests," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(8), pages 1011-1025, March.
    2. Rao, B. Bhaskara & Paradiso, Antonio, 2011. "Estimates of the US Phillips curve with the general to specific method," MPRA Paper 28411, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Kumar, Ronald Ravinesh & Stauvermann, Peter Josef & Loganathan, Nanthakumar & Kumar, Radika Devi, 2015. "Exploring the role of energy, trade and financial development in explaining economic growth in South Africa: A revisit," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 1300-1311.
    4. Ronald Ravinesh Kumar & Ronald Vijay Naidu & Radika Kumar, 2011. "Exploring the Nexus between Trade, Visitor Arrivals, Remittances and Income in the Pacific: a Study of Vanuatu," Acta Universitatis Danubius. OEconomica, Danubius University of Galati, issue 4(4), pages 199-218, August.
    5. Kumar, Ronald/R, 2011. "Role of Trade, Aid, Remittances and Financial Development in Pakistan," MPRA Paper 38871, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Mark Frank, 2009. "Income Inequality, Human Capital, and Income Growth: Evidence from a State-Level VAR Analysis," Atlantic Economic Journal, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 37(2), pages 173-185, June.
    7. Bartzsch, Nikolaus & Seitz, Franz & Setzer, Ralph, 2015. "The demand for euro banknotes in Germany: Structural modelling and forecasting," MPRA Paper 64949, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Kumar, Ronald Ravinesh & Stauvermann, Peter Josef & Patel, Arvind & Kumar, Nikeel, 2017. "The effect of energy on output per worker in the Balkan Peninsula: A country-specific study of 12 nations in the Energy Community," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 1223-1239.
    9. Rahmanov, Ramiz, 2014. "A Historical Sketch of Macroeconometrics," MPRA Paper 56869, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Kumar, Saten, 2015. "Regional integration, capital mobility and financial intermediation revisited: Application of general to specific method in panel data," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 1-17.
    11. Ronald Ravinesh Kumar & Peter Josef Stauvermann & Syed Jawad Hussain Shahzad, 2017. "Can technology provide a glimmer of hope for economic growth in the midst of chaos? A case of Zimbabwe," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 51(2), pages 919-939, March.
    12. Fabrizio Balassone & Maura Francese & Angelo Pace, 2011. "Public Debt and Economic Growth in Italy," Quaderni di storia economica (Economic History Working Papers) 11, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    13. Scheiblecker, Marcus, 2013. "Between cointegration and multicointegration: Modelling time series dynamics by cumulative error correction models," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 511-517.
    14. Jamil, Faisal & Ahmad, Eatzaz, 2011. "Income and price elasticities of electricity demand: Aggregate and sector-wise analyses," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(9), pages 5519-5527, September.
    15. Karagiannis, Stelios & Panagopoulos, Yannis & Vlamis, Prodromos, 2015. "Are unleaded gasoline and diesel price adjustments symmetric? A comparison of the four largest EU retail fuel markets," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 281-291.
    16. repec:kap:ecopln:v:51:y:2018:i:1:d:10.1007_s10644-016-9198-6 is not listed on IDEAS
    17. Kumar, Saten, 2011. "Financial reforms and money demand: Evidence from 20 developing countries," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 323-334, September.
    18. Ronald Kumar & Peter Stauvermann, 2014. "Exploring the nexus between remittances and economic growth: a study of Bangladesh," International Review of Economics, Springer;Happiness Economics and Interpersonal Relations (HEIRS), vol. 61(4), pages 399-415, December.
    19. Kumar, Saten & Pacheco, Gail, 2012. "What determines the long run growth rate in Kenya?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 34(5), pages 705-718.
    20. Kumar, Ronald Ravinesh & Stauvermann, Peter Josef & Patel, Arvind & Kumar, Radika Devi, 2014. "Exploring the effects of energy consumption on output per worker: A study of Albania, Bulgaria, Hungary and Romania," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 575-585.
    21. Ronald Kumar & Nanthakumar Loganathan & Arvind Patel & Radika Kumar, 2015. "Nexus between tourism earnings and economic growth: a study of Malaysia," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 49(3), pages 1101-1120, May.
    22. Paradiso, Antonio & Rao, B. Bhaskara & Ventura, Marco, 2011. "Estimates of the Sticky-Information Phillips Curve for the USA with the General to Specific Method," MPRA Paper 28867, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    More about this item


    Var; Cointegration; General to Specific Approach;

    JEL classification:

    • C1 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General
    • C2 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables
    • C3 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables
    • C4 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics
    • C5 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling
    • C8 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs

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