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Is Euro Area Money Demand (Still) Stable? Cointegrated VAR Versus Single Equation Techniques

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  • Ansgar Belke
  • Robert Czudaj

Abstract

In this paper we present an empirically stable euro area money demand model. Using a sample period until 2009:2 shows that the current financial and economic crisis that started in 2007 does not appear to have any noticeable impact on the stability of the euro area money demand function. We also compare single equation methods like the ARDL approach, FMOLS, CCR and, DOLS with the commonly used cointegrated Johansen VAR framework and show that the former are under certain circumstances more appropriate than the latter. What is more, they deliver results that are more in line with the economic theory. Hence, FM-OLS, CCR and, DOLS are useful in estimating standard money demand as well, although they have only been rarely applied for this purpose in previous studies.

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  • Ansgar Belke & Robert Czudaj, 2010. "Is Euro Area Money Demand (Still) Stable? Cointegrated VAR Versus Single Equation Techniques," Applied Economics Quarterly (formerly: Konjunkturpolitik), Duncker & Humblot, Berlin, vol. 56(4), pages 285-315.
  • Handle: RePEc:aeq:aeqaeq:v56_y2010_i4_q4_p285-315
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    File URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.3790/aeq.56.4.285
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    Cited by:

    1. Claudiu Tiberiu Albulescu & Dominique Pépin, 2018. "Money demand stability, monetary overhang and inflation forecast in the CEE countries," Working Papers hal-01720319, HAL.
    2. Issing, Otmar, 2012. "Central banks: Paradise lost," CFS Working Paper Series 2012/06, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
    3. Saten Kumar & Don J. Webber, 2013. "Australasian money demand stability: application of structural break tests," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(8), pages 1011-1025, March.
    4. Adnan Haider & Asad Jan & Kalim Hyder, 2013. "On the (Ir)Relevance of Monetary Aggregate Targeting in Pakistan: An Eclectic View," Lahore Journal of Economics, Department of Economics, The Lahore School of Economics, vol. 18(2), pages 65-119, July-Dec.
    5. Ingrid Groessl & Artur Tarassow, 2015. "A Microfounded Model of Money Demand Under Uncertainty, and some Empirical Evidence," Macroeconomics and Finance Series 201504, Hamburg University, Department Wirtschaft und Politik, revised Jan 2018.
    6. Ansgar Belke, 2009. "Die Auswirkungen der Geldmenge und des Kreditvolumens auf die Immobilienpreise: ein ARDL-Ansatz für Deutschland," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 953, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    7. Christian Pierdzioch & Jan-Christoph Rülke & Georg Stadtmann, 2011. "Survey Forecasts and Money Demand Functions: Some International Evidence," Applied Economics Quarterly (formerly: Konjunkturpolitik), Duncker & Humblot, Berlin, vol. 57(1), pages 5-14.
    8. Jung, Alexander, 2016. "A portfolio demand approach for broad money in the euro area," Working Paper Series 1929, European Central Bank.
    9. Erjona REBI, 2014. "Mortgage lending and house prices in Albania - a co-integrated analysis based on VECM," Eastern Journal of European Studies, Centre for European Studies, Alexandru Ioan Cuza University, vol. 5, pages 79-98, June.
    10. Otmar Issing, 2012. "Central Banks - Paradise Lost," IMES Discussion Paper Series 12-E-10, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan.
    11. Dreger, Christian & Wolters, Jürgen, 2015. "Unconventional monetary policy and money demand," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 40-54.
    12. Otmar Issing, 2012. "The Mayekawa Lecture: Central Banks-Paradise Lost," Monetary and Economic Studies, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, vol. 30, pages 55-74, November.
    13. Czudaj, Robert, 2011. "P-star in times of crisis - Forecasting inflation for the euro area," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 390-407, September.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ARDL model; cointegration; euro area; financial crisis; money demand;

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E41 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Demand for Money

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