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M3 money demand and excess liquidity in the euro area

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  • Christian Dreger

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  • Jürgen Wolters

    ()

Abstract

Money growth in the euro area has exceeded its target since 2001. Likewise, recent empirical studies did not find evidence in favour of a stable long run money demand function. The equation appears to be increasingly unstable if more recent data are used. If the link between money balances and the macroeconomy is fragile, the rationale of monetary aggregates in the ECB strategy has to be doubted. In contrast to the bulk of the literature, we are able to identify a stable long run money demand relationship for M3 with reasonable long run behaviour. This finding is robust for different (ML and S2S) estimation methods. To obtain the result, the short run homogeneity restriction between money and prices is relaxed. In addition, a rise in the income elasticity after 2001 is taken into account. The break might be linked to the introduction of euro coins and banknotes. The monetary overhang and the real money gap do not indicate significant inflation pressures. The corresponding error correction model survives a battery of specification tests.
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Suggested Citation

  • Christian Dreger & Jürgen Wolters, 2010. "M3 money demand and excess liquidity in the euro area," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 144(3), pages 459-472, September.
  • Handle: RePEc:kap:pubcho:v:144:y:2010:i:3:p:459-472
    DOI: 10.1007/s11127-010-9679-5
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Christian Dreger & Jürgen Wolters, 2009. "Money velocity and asset prices in the euro area," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 36(1), pages 51-63, February.
    2. repec:eee:ecmode:v:68:y:2018:i:c:p:622-633 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Clemens Kool & Erik de Regt & Tom van Veen, 2013. "Money Overhang, Credit Overhang and Financial Imbalances in the Euro Area," CESifo Working Paper Series 4476, CESifo Group Munich.
    4. Dreger, Christian & Wolters, Jürgen, 2016. "On the Empirical Relevance of the Lucas Critique: the Case of Euro Area Money Demand," EconStor Open Access Articles, ZBW - German National Library of Economics, pages 61-82.
    5. Oliver Hossfeld, 2010. "US Money Demand, Monetary Overhang, and Inflation," Working Papers 2010.4, International Network for Economic Research - INFER.
    6. Ansgar Belke & Robert Czudaj, 2010. "Is Euro Area Money Demand (Still) Stable? Cointegrated VAR Versus Single Equation Techniques," Applied Economics Quarterly (formerly: Konjunkturpolitik), Duncker & Humblot, Berlin, vol. 56(4), pages 285-315.
    7. Christian Dreger & Jürgen Wolters, 2011. "Money and Inflation in the Euro Area during the Financial Crisis," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1131, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    8. J. Liu & C.J.M. Kool, 2017. "Money and Credit Overhang in the Euro Area," Working Papers 17-02, Utrecht School of Economics.
    9. Alexander C. Jung, 2015. "Does liquidity matter for money demand in euro area countries?," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 35(2), pages 1383-1391.
    10. Maciej Ryczkowski, 2015. "Ewolucja pogladow Miltona Friedmana, a ocena polityki pienieznej Fed i EBC w okresie kryzysu finansowego," Working Papers 168/2015, Institute of Economic Research, revised Dec 2015.
    11. Miguel Lebre de Freitas, 2014. "On inflation and money demand in a portfolio model with shopping costs," NIPE Working Papers 13/2014, NIPE - Universidade do Minho.
    12. Dreger, Christian & Wolters, Jürgen, 2014. "Money demand and the role of monetary indicators in forecasting euro area inflation," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 303-312.
    13. Wei Liao & Sampawende J Tapsoba, 2014. "China’s Monetary Policy and Interest Rate Liberalization; Lessons from International Experiences," IMF Working Papers 14/75, International Monetary Fund.
    14. Jung, Alexander, 2016. "A portfolio demand approach for broad money in the euro area," Working Paper Series 1929, European Central Bank.
    15. Arnold, Ivo J.M. & Roelands, Sebastian, 2010. "The demand for euros," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 674-684, June.
    16. Czudaj, Robert, 2011. "P-star in times of crisis - Forecasting inflation for the euro area," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 390-407, September.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Cointegration analysis; Error correction; Excess liquidity; Monetary policy; Money demand; C22; C52; E41;

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
    • E41 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Demand for Money

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