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Money demand and the role of monetary indicators in forecasting euro area inflation


  • Christian Dreger
  • Jürgen Wolters


This paper examines the stability of money demand and the forecasting performance of a broad monetary aggregate (M3) in predicting euro area inflation. Excess liquidity is measured as the difference between the actual money stock and its fundamental value, the latter determined by a money demand function. The out-of sample forecasting performance is compared to widely used alternatives, such as the term structure of interest rates. The results indicate that the evolution of M3 is still in line with money demand even in the period of the financial and economic crisis. Monetary indi-cators are useful to predict inflation, if the forecasting equations are based on measures of excess liquidity.

Suggested Citation

  • Christian Dreger & Jürgen Wolters, 2013. "Money demand and the role of monetary indicators in forecasting euro area inflation," FIW Working Paper series 119, FIW.
  • Handle: RePEc:wsr:wpaper:y:2013:i:119

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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. De Santis, Roberto A. & Favero, Carlo A. & Roffia, Barbara, 2013. "Euro area money demand and international portfolio allocation: A contribution to assessing risks to price stability," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 377-404.
    2. Dreger, Christian & Wolters, Jürgen, 2015. "Unconventional monetary policy and money demand," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 40-54.
    3. Cendejas Bueno, José Luis & Castañeda, Juan Enrique & Muñoz, Félix, 2015. "Business cycles and monetary regimes in the U.S. (1960 – 2014): A plea for monetary stability," Working Papers in Economic Theory 2015/05, Universidad Autónoma de Madrid (Spain), Department of Economic Analysis (Economic Theory and Economic History).
    4. Claudiu Tiberiu Albulescu & Daniel Goyeau & Cornel Oros, 2015. "On the Long Run Money-Prices Relationship in CEE Countries," Economic Research Guardian, Weissberg Publishing, vol. 5(1), pages 73-96, June.
    5. Dreger, Christian & Wolters, Jürgen, 2016. "On the Empirical Relevance of the Lucas Critique: the Case of Euro Area Money Demand," EconStor Open Access Articles, ZBW - German National Library of Economics, pages 61-82.
    6. Christian Dreger & Malte Rieth & David Pothier, 2015. "Is Globalization Reducing the Ability of Central Banks to Control Inflation? In-Depth Analysis," DIW Berlin: Politikberatung kompakt, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, volume 106, number pbk106.
    7. Christian Dreger & Jürgen Wolters, 2011. "Money and Inflation in the Euro Area during the Financial Crisis," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1131, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    8. repec:eee:ecofin:v:42:y:2017:i:c:p:421-432 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. PELINESCU, Elena & SIMIONESCU, Mihaela, 2014. "Modelling And Predicting The Real Money Demand In Romania," Journal of Financial and Monetary Economics, Centre of Financial and Monetary Research "Victor Slavescu", vol. 1(1), pages 117-124.
    10. Christian Dreger & Dieter Gerdesmeier & Barbara Roffia, 2016. "Re-vitalizing Money Demand in the Euro Area: Still Valid at the Zero Lower Bound," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1606, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    11. Matteo Barigozzi & Antonio Conti, 2013. "On the Stability of Euro Area Money Demand and its Implications for Monetary Policy," LEM Papers Series 2013/11, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.
    12. J. Liu & C.J.M. Kool, 2017. "Monetary dynamics in the euro area : a disaggregate panel approach," Working Papers 17-14, Utrecht School of Economics.
    13. Schabert, Andreas & Christoffel, Kai, 2015. "Interest rates, money, and banks in an estimated euro area model," Working Paper Series 1791, European Central Bank.
    14. repec:eee:ecmode:v:68:y:2018:i:c:p:622-633 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Cendejas, José Luis & Castañeda, Juan E. & Muñoz, Félix-Fernando, 2014. "Business cycle, interest rate and money in the euro area: A common factor model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 136-141.
    16. David I. Harvey & Stephen J. Leybourne & Emily J. Whitehouse, "undated". "Forecast evaluation tests and negative long-run variance estimates in small samples," Discussion Papers 17/03, University of Nottingham, Granger Centre for Time Series Econometrics.
    17. repec:eee:intfor:v:33:y:2017:i:4:p:833-847 is not listed on IDEAS
    18. J. Liu & C.J.M. Kool, 2017. "Money and Credit Overhang in the Euro Area," Working Papers 17-02, Utrecht School of Economics.
    19. César Carrera & Jairo Flores, 2017. "Modelling and forecasting money demand: divide and conquer," Working Papers 2017-91, Peruvian Economic Association.
    20. Michael Ellington & Costas Milas, 2014. "Global liquidity, money growth and UK inflation," Working Paper series 21_14, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.

    More about this item


    Money demand; excess liquidity; inflation forecasts;

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
    • E41 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Demand for Money

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