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Does Money Matter For Inflation In The Euro Area?

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  • SYLVIA KAUFMANN
  • PETER KUGLER

Abstract

"We analyze the relationship between M3 growth and inflation within an error correction framework including also the output gap, the 3-mo EURIBOR, and the 10-yr government bond yield. We find robust cointegration between money growth and inflation. Shocks in M3 growth account for up to 30% of the inflation forecast error variance, while the effects of output gap and interest rate shocks are mainly transitory. Significantly different dynamics are found during periods at the end of the seventies and beginning of the eighties when interest rate and inflation rate levels were high and real money growth decreasing. "("JEL "C32, E31, E41) Copyright (c) 2008 Western Economic Association International.

Suggested Citation

  • Sylvia Kaufmann & Peter Kugler, 2008. "Does Money Matter For Inflation In The Euro Area?," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 26(4), pages 590-606, October.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:coecpo:v:26:y:2008:i:4:p:590-606
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Egorov D.A. & Perevyshina E.A., 2016. "Modelling of Inflationary Processes in Russia," Working Papers 2138, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration.
    2. Benchimol, Jonathan & Fourçans, André, 2012. "Money and risk in a DSGE framework: A Bayesian application to the Eurozone," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 95-111.
    3. Kaufmann, Sylvia & Kugler, Peter, 2005. "Expected Money Growth, Markov Trends and the Instability of Money Demand in the Euro Area," Working papers 2005/07, Faculty of Business and Economics - University of Basel.
    4. Woodford, Michael, 2007. "Does a 'Two-Pillar Phillips Curve' Justify a Two-Pillar Monetary Policy Strategy?," CEPR Discussion Papers 6447, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    5. De Santis, Roberto A. & Favero, Carlo A. & Roffia, Barbara, 2013. "Euro area money demand and international portfolio allocation: A contribution to assessing risks to price stability," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 377-404.
    6. Sylvia Kaufmann & Peter Kugler, 2010. "A monetary real-time conditional forecast of euro area inflation," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(4), pages 388-405.
    7. El-Shagi, Makram & Giesen, Sebastian & Kelly, Logan J., 2015. "The Quantity Theory Revisited: A New Structural Approach," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 19(01), pages 58-78, January.
    8. Michael Woodford, 2008. "How Important Is Money in the Conduct of Monetary Policy?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 40(8), pages 1561-1598, December.
    9. Hofmann, Boris, 2009. "Do monetary indicators lead euro area inflation?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(7), pages 1165-1181, November.
    10. Gomez-Biscarri, Javier & Hualde, Javier, 2015. "A residual-based ADF test for stationary cointegration in I(2) settings," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 184(2), pages 280-294.
    11. Gianni Amisano & Roberta Colavecchio, 2013. "Money Growth and Inflation: evidence from a Markov Switching Bayesian VAR," Macroeconomics and Finance Series 201304, University of Hamburg, Department of Socioeconomics.
    12. Gebhard Kirchgässner & Jürgen Wolters, 2010. "The Role of Monetary Aggregates in the Policy Analysis of the Swiss National Bank," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 146(I), pages 221-253, March.
    13. Assenmacher-Wesche, Katrin & Gerlach, Stefan, 2008. "Interpreting euro area inflation at high and low frequencies," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 52(6), pages 964-986, August.
    14. Emil Stavrev & Helge Berger, 2012. "The information content of money in forecasting euro area inflation," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(31), pages 4055-4072, November.
    15. Sylvia Kaufmann & Maria Teresa Valderrama, 2010. "The Role Of Credit Aggregates And Asset Prices In The Transmission Mechanism: A Comparison Between The Euro Area And The Usa," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 78(4), pages 345-377, July.
    16. Jonas Stulz, 2007. "Exchange rate pass-through in Switzerland: Evidence from vector autoregressions," Economic Studies 2007-04, Swiss National Bank.
    17. Kulaksizoglu, Tamer & Kulaksizoglu, Sebnem, 2009. "The U.S. Excess Money Growth and Inflation Relation in the Long-Run: A Nonlinear Analysis," MPRA Paper 23780, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    18. Dreger, Christian & Wolters, Jürgen, 2014. "Money demand and the role of monetary indicators in forecasting euro area inflation," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 303-312.
    19. El-Shagi, Makram & Giesen, Sebastian, 2013. "Money and inflation: Consequences of the recent monetary policy," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 520-537.
    20. El-Shagi, Makram & Giesen, Sebastian, 2010. "Money and Inflation: The Role of Persistent Velocity Movements," IWH Discussion Papers 2/2010, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E41 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Demand for Money

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