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Modeling Credit Aggregates

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Abstract

The purpose of this paper is to model both loans to households and to non-financial corporations as well as their relation to interest rates and demand variables for Austria, Germany, the Netherlands and the United Kingdom. Credit aggregates are modeled using a Markov-switching vector autoregressive model, which allows testing as to whether shocks to the economy have stronger effects during tight credit regimes or economic downturns. The analysis of the above-mentioned countries makes it possible to assess the differences in the amplifying and asymmetric effects of credit aggregates between marketbased and bank-based financial systems.

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  • Sylvia Kaufmann & Maria Teresa Valderrama, 2004. "Modeling Credit Aggregates," Working Papers 90, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank).
    • Handle: RePEc:onb:oenbwp:90
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Asymmetry and amplification; credit aggregates; market-based and bank-based financial systems;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E51 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Money Supply; Credit; Money Multipliers

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