Asymmetric Interest Rate Effects for the UK Real Economy
Recent literature has uncovered asymmetries in the response of real output to monetary policy variables. Nevertheless, it remains unclear whether such asymmetries relate to different responses to monetary policy or to the business cycle. This paper uses nonlinear models to examine the issues in the context of interest rate effects on quarterly UK GDP growth. Strong evidence of nonlinearity is found, with asymmetry relating to the business cycle through lagged GDP regimes and interest rate changes. The results suggest that interest rate effects on GDP are larger when either lagged growth has been high or when interest rates have substantially increased in the past. However, the inclusion of interest rate regimes without taking account of GDP regimes yields an unsatisfactory model.
|Date of creation:||2002|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Phone: (0)161 275 4868
Fax: (0)161 275 4812
Web page: http://www.socialsciences.manchester.ac.uk/subjects/economics/our-research/centre-for-growth-and-business-cycle-research/
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Eitrheim, Oyvind & Terasvirta, Timo, 1996.
"Testing the adequacy of smooth transition autoregressive models,"
Journal of Econometrics,
Elsevier, vol. 74(1), pages 59-75, September.
- Eitrheim, Øyvind & Teräsvirta, Timo, 1995. "Testing the Adequacy of Smooth Transition Autoregressive Models," SSE/EFI Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 56, Stockholm School of Economics.
- Karras, Georgios, 1996. "Are the Output Effects of Monetary Policy Asymmetric? Evidence from a Sample of European Countries," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 58(2), pages 267-78, May.
- Birchenhall, Chris R & Osborn, Denise R & Sensier, Marianne, 2001.
"Predicting UK Business Cycle Regimes,"
Scottish Journal of Political Economy,
Scottish Economic Society, vol. 48(2), pages 179-95, May.
- Chris Birchenhall & Marianne Sensier, 2000. "Predicting UK Business Cycle Regimes," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 0953, Econometric Society.
- C R Birchenhall & D R Osborn & M Sensier, 2000. "Predicting UK Business Cycle Regimes," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 02, Economics, The Univeristy of Manchester.
- Chris R. Birchenhall & Marianne Sensier & Denise R. Osborn, 2000. "Predicting Uk Business Cycle Regimes," Computing in Economics and Finance 2000 134, Society for Computational Economics.
- Koop, Gary & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Potter, Simon M., 1996. "Impulse response analysis in nonlinear multivariate models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 74(1), pages 119-147, September.
- J. Bradford DeLong & Lawrence H. Summers, 1988. "How Does Macroeconomic Policy Affect Output?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 19(2), pages 433-494.
- Anderson, H.M. & Vahid, F., 2000.
"Predicting the Probability of a Recession with Nonlinear Autoregressive Leading Indicator Models,"
Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers
3/00, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
- Anderson, Heather M. & Vahid, Farshid, 2001. "Predicting The Probability Of A Recession With Nonlinear Autoregressive Leading-Indicator Models," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 5(04), pages 482-505, September.
- René Garcia & Huntley Schaller, 1995.
"Are the Effects of Monetary Policy Asymmetric?,"
CIRANO Working Papers
- Garcia, R. & Schaller, H., 1995. "Are the Effects of Monetary Policy Asymmetric?," Cahiers de recherche 9505, Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en économie quantitative, CIREQ.
- Garcia, R. & Schaller, H., 1995. "Are the Effects of Monetary Policy Asymmetric?," Cahiers de recherche 9505, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
- René Garcia & Huntley Schaller, 1999. "Are the Effects of Monetary Policy Asymmetric?," Carleton Economic Papers 99-17, Carleton University, Department of Economics.
- Arturo Estrella & Frederic S. Mishkin, 1998.
"Predicting U.S. Recessions: Financial Variables As Leading Indicators,"
The Review of Economics and Statistics,
MIT Press, vol. 80(1), pages 45-61, February.
- Arturo Estrella & Frederic S. Mishkin, 1995. "Predicting U.S. Recessions: Financial Variables as Leading Indicators," NBER Working Papers 5379, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Arturo Estrella & Frederic S. Mishkin, 1996. "Predicting U.S. recessions: financial variables as leading indicators," Research Paper 9609, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
- Christopher A. Sims, 1992.
"Interpreting the Macroeconomic Time Series Facts: The Effects of Monetary Policy,"
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
1011, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- Sims, Christopher A., 1992. "Interpreting the macroeconomic time series facts : The effects of monetary policy," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 36(5), pages 975-1000, June.
- Kapetanios, G., 1999. "Threshold Models for Trended Time Series," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9905, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
- H. D. Vinod, 2000. "Review of GAUSS for Windows, including its numerical accuracy," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 15(2), pages 211-220.
- Nadir Ocal & Denise R. Osborn, 2000. "Business cycle non-linearities in UK consumption and production," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 15(1), pages 27-43.
- van Dijk, Dick & Franses, Philip Hans & Paap, Richard, 2002. "A nonlinear long memory model, with an application to US unemployment," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 110(2), pages 135-165, October.
- Van Dijk, Dick & Franses, Philip Hans & Lucas, Andre, 1999.
"Testing for Smooth Transition Nonlinearity in the Presence of Outliers,"
Journal of Business & Economic Statistics,
American Statistical Association, vol. 17(2), pages 217-35, April.
- van Dijk, D.J.C. & Franses, Ph.H.B.F. & Lucas, A., 1996. "Testing for Smooth Transition Nonlinearity in the Presence of Outliers," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI 9622-/A, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
- Choi, Woon Gyu, 1999. "Asymmetric Monetary Effects on Interest Rates across Monetary Policy Stances," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 31(3), pages 386-416, August.
- repec:fth:harver:1418 is not listed on IDEAS
- Terasvirta, T & Anderson, H M, 1992. "Characterizing Nonlinearities in Business Cycles Using Smooth Transition Autoregressive Models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 7(S), pages S119-36, Suppl. De.
- Morten O. Ravn & Martín Solà, 1997. "Asymmetric effects of monetary policy in the US: Positive vs. negative or big vs. small?," Economics Working Papers 247, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Dec 1997.
- Thoma, Mark A., 1994. "Subsample instability and asymmetries in money-income causality," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 64(1-2), pages 279-306.
- James Peery Cover, 1992. "Asymmetric Effects of Positive and Negative Money-Supply Shocks," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 107(4), pages 1261-1282.
- Weise, Charles L, 1999. "The Asymmetric Effects of Monetary Policy: A Nonlinear Vector Autoregression Approach," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 31(1), pages 85-108, February.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:man:cgbcrp:10. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Marianne Sensier)The email address of this maintainer does not seem to be valid anymore. Please ask Marianne Sensier to update the entry or send us the correct address
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.