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Non-Linear Effects of Monetary Policy and Real Exchange Rate Shocks in Partially Dollarized Economies: An Empirical Study for Peru

Author Info

Listed author(s):
  • Saki Bigio

    ()

    (New York University and Central Bank of Peru)

  • Jorge Salas

    ()

    (Central Bank of Peru)

Abstract

We study whether monetary policy and real exchange rate shocks have non-linear effects on output and inflation in a partially dollarized economy such as Peru. For this purpose, we use a Smooth Transition Vector Autoregression methodology and then report impulse-response functions for shocks of different sign and size, and conditional to the initial position in the business cycle. We find evidence of non-linearities which imply a convex aggregate supply curve: in particular, monetary policy is more likely to affect the output during recessions than in booms, while the opposite is found for the inflation. Regarding real exchange rate shocks, we show that depreciations have greater negative effects during economic downturns and a higher pass-through rate in the positive side of the business cycle.

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File URL: http://www.bcrp.gob.pe/docs/Publicaciones/Documentos-de-Trabajo/2006/Documento-Trabajo-08-2006.pdf
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Paper provided by Banco Central de Reserva del Perú in its series Working Papers with number 2006-008.

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Date of creation: Aug 2006
Handle: RePEc:rbp:wpaper:2006-008
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Phone: 427-6250 ext. 3841
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Web page: http://www.bcrp.gob.pe

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Keywords: Non-linearities; Monetary Policy; Smooth Transition VAR; Dollarization;

Find related papers by JEL classification:

  • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
  • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
  • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
  • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models

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Cited by:

  1. Carranza, Luis & Galdon-Sanchez, Jose E. & Gomez-Biscarri, Javier, 2011. "The relationship between investment and large exchange rate depreciations in dollarized economies," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(7), pages 1265-1279.
  2. Salas, Jorge, 2011. "Estimación bayesiana de unmodelo de pequeña economía abierta con dolarización parcial," Revista Estudios Económicos, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú, issue 22, pages 41-62.
  3. Salas, Jorge, 2009. "¿Qué explica las fluctuaciones de la inflación en el Perú en el periodo 2002-2008? Evidencia de un análisis VAR estructural," Revista Estudios Económicos, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú, issue 16, pages 9-36.
  4. Winkelried, Diego, 2013. "Modelo de Proyección Trimestral del BCRP: Actualización y novedades," Revista Estudios Económicos, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú, issue 26, pages 9-60.
  5. Carranza, Luis & Galdon-Sanchez, Jose E. & Gomez-Biscarri, Javier, 2009. "Exchange rate and inflation dynamics in dollarized economies," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(1), pages 98-108, May.

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