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Estimación bayesiana de unmodelo de pequeña economía abierta con dolarización parcial

  • Salas, Jorge

Este documento describe un modelo neokeynesiano para una pequeña economía abierta con dolarización parcial, que se asemeja al Modelo de Proyección Trimestral (MPT) del Banco Central de Reserva del Perú (Vega y otros, 2009), y estima un grupo importante de sus parámetros con métodos bayesianos. Se encuentra que algunos de los parámetros originales del MPT son validados empíricamente mientras que otros, como el peso de los componentes prospectivos (forward looking) de las ecuaciones de demanda y oferta agregadas, deberían ser más elevados. Los resultados además validan la operatividad de canales tradicionales de transmisión de política monetaria, como el de tasas de interés. Se encuentra además que el canal de expectativas se ha vuelto más prominente desde el año 2004.

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File URL: http://www.bcrp.gob.pe/docs/Publicaciones/Revista-Estudios-Economicos/22/ree-22-salas.pdf
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Article provided by Banco Central de Reserva del Perú in its journal Revista Estudios Económicos.

Volume (Year): (2011)
Issue (Month): 22 ()
Pages: 41-62

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Handle: RePEc:rbp:esteco:ree-22-03
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  1. Reinhart, Carmen M. & Reinhart, Vincent R., 2011. "Entrada de capitales y acumulación de reservas: evidencia reciente," Revista Estudios Económicos, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú, issue 20, pages 15-25.
  2. Eduardo Morón & Diego Winkelried, 2003. "Monetary Policy Rules for Financially Vulnerable Economies," IMF Working Papers 03/39, International Monetary Fund.
  3. Paul Castillo & Carlos Montoro & Vicente Tuesta, 2013. "An Estimated Stochastic General Equilibrium Model with Partial Dollarization: A Bayesian Approach," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 24(2), pages 217-265, April.
  4. Jesús Fernández-Villaverde, 2009. "The Econometrics of DSGE Models," PIER Working Paper Archive 09-008, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania.
  5. John F. O. Bilson & Richard C. Marston, 1984. "Exchange Rate Theory and Practice," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number bils84-1, Enero.
  6. Bianca De Paoli, 2004. "Monetary policy and welfare in a small open economy," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 19950, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
  7. Nicoletta Batini & Joseph Pearlman & Paul Levine, 2006. "Optimal Exchange Rate Stabilization in a Dollarized Economy with Inflation Targets," Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 148, Society for Computational Economics.
  8. Alberto Humala & Gabriel Rodriguez, 2010. "Foreign exchange intervention and exchange rate volatility in Peru," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(15), pages 1485-1491.
  9. Dominguez, Kathryn M & Frankel, Jeffrey A, 1993. "Does Foreign-Exchange Intervention Matter? The Portfolio Effect," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(5), pages 1356-1369, December.
  10. Guillermo A. Calvo & Carmen M. Reinhart, 2000. "Fear of Floating," NBER Working Papers 7993, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  11. International Monetary Fund, 2009. "Adding Latin America to the Global Projection Model," IMF Working Papers 09/85, International Monetary Fund.
  12. Camilo E Tovar, 2008. "DSGE models and central banks," BIS Working Papers 258, Bank for International Settlements.
  13. Vega, Marco & Bigio, Saki & Florian, David & Llosa, Gonzalo & Miller, Shirley & Ramirez-Rondan, Nelson & Rodriguez, Donita & Salas, Jorge & Winkelried, Diego, 2009. "Un modelo semiestructural de proyección para la economía peruana," Revista Estudios Económicos, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú, issue 17, pages 51-83.
  14. Ester Faia & Tommaso Monacelli, 2006. "Optimal Monetary Policy in a Small Open Economy with Home Bias," Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 521, Society for Computational Economics.
  15. Igor Ermolaev & Michel Juillard & Ioan Carabenciov & Charles Freedman & Douglas Laxton & Ondrej Kamenik & Dmitry Korshunov, 2008. "A Small Quarterly Projection Model of the US Economy," IMF Working Papers 08/278, International Monetary Fund.
  16. Adrián Armas & Francisco Grippa, 2005. "Targeting Inflation in a Dollarized Economy: The Peruvian Experience," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 6827, Inter-American Development Bank.
  17. Luis Felipe Céspedes & Roberto Chang & Andrés Velasco, 2004. "Balance Sheets and Exchange Rate Policy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(4), pages 1183-1193, September.
  18. Saki Bigio & Jorge Salas, 2006. "Non-Linear Effects of Monetary Policy and Real Exchange Rate Shocks in Partially Dollarized Economies: An Empirical Study for Peru," Working Papers 2006-008, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú.
  19. Castillo, Paul & Montoro, Carlos & Tuesta, Vicente, 2009. "Un modelo de equilibrio general con dolarización para la economía peruana," Revista Estudios Económicos, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú, issue 17, pages 9-50.
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