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Un modelo semiestructural de proyección para la economía peruana

Author

Listed:
  • Vega, Marco
  • Bigio, Saki
  • Florian, David
  • Llosa, Gonzalo
  • Miller, Shirley
  • Ramirez-Rondan, Nelson
  • Rodriguez, Donita
  • Salas, Jorge
  • Winkelried, Diego

Abstract

El documento describe el Modelo de Proyección Trimestral (MPT) utilizado por el Banco Central de Reserva del Perú (BCRP) para fines de simulación de política monetaria y de proyección de las principales variables macroeconómicas. La estructura básica del modelo es una aproximación a la representación lineal de un modelo de equilibrio general dinámico para una economía pequeña y abierta con dolarización parcial. El modelo incorpora expectativas racionales y posee un fundamento neo-keynesiano (rigidez de precios) que permite un rol de la política monetaria sobre las variables reales en el corto plazo. Clasificación JEL: E37, E52, E58, F41

Suggested Citation

  • Vega, Marco & Bigio, Saki & Florian, David & Llosa, Gonzalo & Miller, Shirley & Ramirez-Rondan, Nelson & Rodriguez, Donita & Salas, Jorge & Winkelried, Diego, 2009. "Un modelo semiestructural de proyección para la economía peruana," Revista Estudios Económicos, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú, issue 17, pages 51-83.
  • Handle: RePEc:rbp:esteco:ree-17-02
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    File URL: http://www.bcrp.gob.pe/docs/Publicaciones/Revista-Estudios-Economicos/17/Estudios-Economicos-17-2.pdf
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Lahura, Erick, 2012. "Midiendo los efectos de la política monetaria a través de las expectativas de mercado," Revista Estudios Económicos, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú, issue 23, pages 39-52.
    2. Renzo Rossini & Zenon Quispe & Jorge Loyola, 2012. "Fiscal policy considerations in the design of monetary policy in Peru," BIS Papers chapters,in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Fiscal policy, public debt and monetary policy in emerging market economies, volume 67, pages 253-267 Bank for International Settlements.
    3. Lahura, Erick, 2012. "Measuring the Effects of Monetary Policy Using Market Expectations," Working Papers 2012-005, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú.
    4. Maertens Odria, Luís Ricardo & Rodríguez, Gabriel, 2013. "Inflation expectations formation in the presence of policy shifts and structural breaks: An experimental analysis," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 59-67.
    5. Salas, Jorge, 2011. "Estimación bayesiana de unmodelo de pequeña economía abierta con dolarización parcial," Revista Estudios Económicos, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú, issue 22, pages 41-62.
    6. Maertens Odria, Luís Ricardo & Castillo, Paul & Rodriguez, Gabriel, 2012. "Does the exchange rate pass-through into prices change when inflation targeting is adopted? The Peruvian case study between 1994 and 2007," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 1154-1166.
    7. Winkelried, Diego, 2013. "Modelo de Proyección Trimestral del BCRP: Actualización y novedades," Revista Estudios Económicos, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú, issue 26, pages 9-60.
    8. Pérez-Forero, Fernando & Vega, Marco, 2014. "The Dynamic Effects of Interest Rates and Reserve Requirements," Working Papers 2014-018, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú.
    9. José Luis Nolazco & Patricia Lengua-Lafosse & Nikita Céspedes, 2016. "Contribución de los choques externos en el crecimiento económico del Perú: un modelo semi-estructural," Working Papers 2016-80, Peruvian Economic Association.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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