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Un modelo semiestructural de proyección para la economía peruana


  • Vega, Marco
  • Bigio, Saki
  • Florian, David
  • Llosa, Gonzalo
  • Miller, Shirley
  • Ramirez-Rondan, Nelson
  • Rodriguez, Donita
  • Salas, Jorge
  • Winkelried, Diego


El documento describe el Modelo de Proyección Trimestral (MPT) utilizado por el Banco Central de Reserva del Perú (BCRP) para fines de simulación de política monetaria y de proyección de las principales variables macroeconómicas. La estructura básica del modelo es una aproximación a la representación lineal de un modelo de equilibrio general dinámico para una economía pequeña y abierta con dolarización parcial. El modelo incorpora expectativas racionales y posee un fundamento neo-keynesiano (rigidez de precios) que permite un rol de la política monetaria sobre las variables reales en el corto plazo. Clasificación JEL: E37, E52, E58, F41

Suggested Citation

  • Vega, Marco & Bigio, Saki & Florian, David & Llosa, Gonzalo & Miller, Shirley & Ramirez-Rondan, Nelson & Rodriguez, Donita & Salas, Jorge & Winkelried, Diego, 2009. "Un modelo semiestructural de proyección para la economía peruana," Revista Estudios Económicos, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú, issue 17, pages 51-83.
  • Handle: RePEc:rbp:esteco:ree-17-02

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    1. Martha Misas A. & María Teresa Ramírez G. & Luisa Fernanda Silva E., 2001. "Exportaciones no tradicionales en Colombia y sus determinantes," Ensayos sobre Política Económica, Banco de la Republica de Colombia, vol. 19(39), pages 73-114, Junio.
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    4. Sergio Da Silva & Guilherme Moura, 2005. "Is There a Brazilian J-Curve?," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 6(10), pages 1-17.
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    6. Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen & Niroomand, Farhang, 1998. "Long-run price elasticities and the Marshall-Lerner condition revisited," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 61(1), pages 101-109, October.
    7. Perron, Pierre & Rodriguez, Gabriel, 2003. "GLS detrending, efficient unit root tests and structural change," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 115(1), pages 1-27, July.
    8. Hendry, David F & Doornik, Jurgen A, 1994. "Modelling Linear Dynamic Econometric Systems," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 41(1), pages 1-33, February.
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    10. Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen, 1985. "Devaluation and the J-Curve: Some Evidence from LDCs," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 67(3), pages 500-504, August.
    11. Elliott, Graham & Rothenberg, Thomas J & Stock, James H, 1996. "Efficient Tests for an Autoregressive Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(4), pages 813-836, July.
    12. Jaleel Ahmad & Jing Yang, 2004. "Estimation of the J-Curve in China," Economics Study Area Working Papers 67, East-West Center, Economics Study Area.
    13. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee, 1998. "Cointegration Approach to Estimate the Long-Run Trade Elasticities in LDCs," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(3), pages 89-96.
    14. Paul R. Krugman & Richard E. Baldwin, 1987. "The Persistence of the U.S. Trade Deficit," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 18(1), pages 1-56.
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    Cited by:

    1. Lahura, Erick, 2012. "Midiendo los efectos de la política monetaria a través de las expectativas de mercado," Revista Estudios Económicos, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú, issue 23, pages 39-52.
    2. Maertens Odria, Luís Ricardo & Castillo, Paul & Rodriguez, Gabriel, 2012. "Does the exchange rate pass-through into prices change when inflation targeting is adopted? The Peruvian case study between 1994 and 2007," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 1154-1166.
    3. Maertens Odria, Luís Ricardo & Rodríguez, Gabriel, 2013. "Inflation expectations formation in the presence of policy shifts and structural breaks: An experimental analysis," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 59-67.
    4. Pérez-Forero, Fernando & Vega, Marco, 2014. "The Dynamic Effects of Interest Rates and Reserve Requirements," Working Papers 2014-018, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú.
    5. Nolazco, José Luis & Lengua-Lafosse, Patricia & Céspedes, Nikita, 2016. "Contribución de los choques externos en el Crecimiento Económico del Perú: un modelo semi-estructural," Working Papers 2016-006, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú.
    6. Lahura, Erick, 2012. "Measuring the Effects of Monetary Policy Using Market Expectations," Working Papers 2012-005, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú.
    7. Salas, Jorge, 2011. "Estimación bayesiana de unmodelo de pequeña economía abierta con dolarización parcial," Revista Estudios Económicos, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú, issue 22, pages 41-62.
    8. Renzo Rossini & Zenon Quispe & Jorge Loyola, 2012. "Fiscal policy considerations in the design of monetary policy in Peru," BIS Papers chapters,in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Fiscal policy, public debt and monetary policy in emerging market economies, volume 67, pages 253-267 Bank for International Settlements.
    9. Winkelried, Diego, 2013. "Modelo de Proyección Trimestral del BCRP: Actualización y novedades," Revista Estudios Económicos, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú, issue 26, pages 9-60.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics


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