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Inflation Expectations Formation In The Presence Of Policy Shifts And Structural Breaks: An Experimental Analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Luis Ricardo Maertens

    (Departamento de Economía - Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú)

  • Gabriel Rodríguez

    (Departamento de Economía - Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú)

Abstract

En este documento se muestra como las expectativas de inflacion son formadas y si cambios en la polÌtica o cambios estructurales influencian en dicha formacion. Cuatro experimentos son realizados con 75 individuos no experimentados donde se solicita predecir la inflacion domestica futura y reportar intervalos de cobranza. En tres momentos de los experimentos se solicita adicionalmente informacion referente a la incertidumbre de las predicciones. El diseño permite contar con 6750 puntos de prediccion de inflacion domestica e intervalos de confianza. Los resultados muestran que: (1) las expectativas de inflaciÛn son raramente racionales; (2) en general, los individuos ignoran informacion valiosa y tienen tendencia a prestar atencion al comportamiento tendencial pasado; (3) la adopcion de metas de inflacion aumenta el numero de individuos que predicen en forma racional y reduce la incertidumbre acerca de la inflaciÛn futura; y (4) una recesion reduce el nivel de racionalidad entre los individuos.

Suggested Citation

  • Luis Ricardo Maertens & Gabriel Rodríguez, 2012. "Inflation Expectations Formation In The Presence Of Policy Shifts And Structural Breaks: An Experimental Analysis," Documentos de Trabajo / Working Papers 2012-339, Departamento de Economía - Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú.
    • Handle: RePEc:pcp:pucwps:wp00339
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    Cited by:

    1. is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Dzmitry Kruk, 2016. "SVAR Approach for Extracting Inflation Expectations Given Severe Monetary Shocks: Evidence from Belarus," BEROC Working Paper Series 39, Belarusian Economic Research and Outreach Center (BEROC).
    3. Deversi, Marvin, 2014. "Do Macroeconomic Shocks Affect Intuitive Inflation Forecasting? An Experimental Investigation," Ruhr Economic Papers 528, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
    4. Carola Binder & Alex Rodrigue, 2018. "Household Informedness and Long‐Run Inflation Expectations: Experimental Evidence," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 85(2), pages 580-598, October.
    5. Marvin Deversi, 2014. "Do Macroeconomic Shocks Affect Intuitive Inflation Forecasting? An Experimental Investigation," Ruhr Economic Papers 0528, Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-Universität Bochum, Universität Dortmund, Universität Duisburg-Essen.

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • C90 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Design of Experiments - - - General
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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