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Inflation Expectations Formation In The Presence Of Policy Shifts And Structural Breaks: An Experimental Analysis

  • Luis Ricardo Maertens

    (Departamento de Economía - Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú)

  • Gabriel Rodríguez

    (Departamento de Economía - Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú)

En este documento se muestra como las expectativas de inflacion son formadas y si cambios en la polÌtica o cambios estructurales influencian en dicha formacion. Cuatro experimentos son realizados con 75 individuos no experimentados donde se solicita predecir la inflacion domestica futura y reportar intervalos de cobranza. En tres momentos de los experimentos se solicita adicionalmente informacion referente a la incertidumbre de las predicciones. El diseño permite contar con 6750 puntos de prediccion de inflacion domestica e intervalos de confianza. Los resultados muestran que: (1) las expectativas de inflaciÛn son raramente racionales; (2) en general, los individuos ignoran informacion valiosa y tienen tendencia a prestar atencion al comportamiento tendencial pasado; (3) la adopcion de metas de inflacion aumenta el numero de individuos que predicen en forma racional y reduce la incertidumbre acerca de la inflaciÛn futura; y (4) una recesion reduce el nivel de racionalidad entre los individuos.

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Paper provided by Departamento de Economía - Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú in its series Documentos de Trabajo / Working Papers with number 2012-339.

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Length: 30 pages
Date of creation: 2012
Date of revision:
Publication status: published
Handle: RePEc:pcp:pucwps:wp00339
Contact details of provider: Postal: Av. Universitaria 1801, San Miguel, Lima, Perú
Phone: (511) 626-2000 ext. 4950, 4951
Fax: (511) 626-2874
Web page: http://departamento.pucp.edu.pe/economia/Email:


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  1. Jeff Dominitz & Charles F. Manski, 1994. "Using Expectations Data to Study Subjective Income Expectations," Econometrics 9411003, EconWPA.
  2. Adam, Klaus, 2005. "Experimental evidence on the persistence of output and inflation," Working Paper Series 0492, European Central Bank.
  3. N. Gregory Mankiw & Ricardo Reis & Justin Wolfers, 2003. "Disagreement about Inflation Expectations," NBER Working Papers 9796, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Jordi Gal� & Tommaso Monacelli, 2005. "Monetary Policy and Exchange Rate Volatility in a Small Open Economy," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 72(3), pages 707-734.
  5. Schmalensee, Richard, 1976. "An Experimental Study of Expectation Formation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 44(1), pages 17-41, January.
  6. Vega, Marco & Bigio, Saki & Florian, David & Llosa, Gonzalo & Miller, Shirley & Ramirez-Rondan, Nelson & Rodriguez, Donita & Salas, Jorge & Winkelried, Diego, 2009. "Un modelo semiestructural de proyección para la economía peruana," Revista Estudios Económicos, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú, issue 17, pages 51-83.
  7. Bennett T. McCallum, 2006. "E-Stability vis-a-vis Determinacy Results for a Broad Class of Linear Rational Expectations Models," NBER Working Papers 12441, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. repec:dgr:kubcen:2009007 is not listed on IDEAS
  9. Branch, William A., 2007. "Sticky information and model uncertainty in survey data on inflation expectations," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 245-276, January.
  10. Heemeijer, P. & Hommes, C.H. & Sonnemans, J. & Tuinstra, J., 2006. "Price Stability and Volatility in Markets with Positive and Negative Expectations Feedback: An Experimental Investigation," CeNDEF Working Papers 06-05, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance.
  11. De Bondt, Werner P. M., 1993. "Betting on trends: Intuitive forecasts of financial risk and return," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 9(3), pages 355-371, November.
  12. Smith, Vernon L & Suchanek, Gerry L & Williams, Arlington W, 1988. "Bubbles, Crashes, and Endogenous Expectations in Experimental Spot Asset Markets," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 56(5), pages 1119-51, September.
  13. Hommes, Cars H., 2006. "Heterogeneous Agent Models in Economics and Finance," Handbook of Computational Economics, in: Leigh Tesfatsion & Kenneth L. Judd (ed.), Handbook of Computational Economics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 23, pages 1109-1186 Elsevier.
  14. Castillo, Paul & Montoro, Carlos & Tuesta, Vicente, 2009. "Un modelo de equilibrio general con dolarización para la economía peruana," Revista Estudios Económicos, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú, issue 17, pages 9-50.
  15. Hey, John D., 1994. "Expectations formation: Rational or adaptive or ...?," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 25(3), pages 329-349, December.
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