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Household Informedness and Long‐Run Inflation Expectations: Experimental Evidence

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  • Carola Binder
  • Alex Rodrigue

Abstract

This article uses an experiment embedded in a survey to analyze the response of consumers' long‐run inflation expectations to information about the Federal Reserve's inflation target and past inflation. On average, respondents revise forecasts toward the 2% target with either information treatment. Forecast uncertainty and heterogeneity decline with the treatments, but remain substantial. Since the information in the treatments is publicly available, these findings are consistent with models of imperfect information in which agents do not fully and continually update their information sets or incorporate all available information into their expectations. Response to treatments varies with prior informedness and with demographic characteristics.

Suggested Citation

  • Carola Binder & Alex Rodrigue, 2018. "Household Informedness and Long‐Run Inflation Expectations: Experimental Evidence," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 85(2), pages 580-598, October.
  • Handle: RePEc:wly:soecon:v:85:y:2018:i:2:p:580-598
    DOI: 10.1002/soej.12306
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    Cited by:

    1. Christopher Roth & Johannes Wohlfart, 2020. "How Do Expectations about the Macroeconomy Affect Personal Expectations and Behavior?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 102(4), pages 731-748, October.
    2. Goldfayn-Frank, Olga & Wohlfart, Johannes, 2018. "How do consumers adapt to a new environment in their economic forecasting? Evidence from the German reunification," IMFS Working Paper Series 129, Goethe University Frankfurt, Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability (IMFS).
    3. Olivier Coibion & Dimitris Georgarakos & Yuriy Gorodnichenko & Michael Weber, 2020. "Forward Guidance and Household Expectations," Working Papers 2020-07, Becker Friedman Institute for Research In Economics.
    4. Olivier Coibion & Yuriy Gorodnichenko & Tiziano Ropele, 2020. "Inflation Expectations and Firm Decisions: New Causal Evidence," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 135(1), pages 165-219.
    5. Rumler, Fabio & Valderrama, María Teresa, 2020. "Inflation literacy and inflation expectations: Evidence from Austrian household survey data," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 8-23.
    6. Goldfayn-Frank, Olga & Wohlfart, Johannes, 2019. "How Do Consumers Adapt to a New Environment in their economic forecasting? Evidence from the German Reunification," VfS Annual Conference 2019 (Leipzig): 30 Years after the Fall of the Berlin Wall - Democracy and Market Economy 203668, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    7. Francesco D'Acunto & Daniel Hoang & Maritta Paloviita & Michael Weber, 2020. "Effective Policy Communication: Targets versus Instruments," Working Papers 2020-148, Becker Friedman Institute for Research In Economics.
    8. Olivier Coibion & Yuriy Gorodnichenko & Michael Weber, 2019. "Monetary Policy Communications and their Effects on Household Inflation Expectations," NBER Working Papers 25482, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Kerim Peren Arin & Juan A. Lacomba & Francisco Lagos & Ana I. Moro-Egido & Marcel Thum, 2021. "Socio-Economic Attitudes in the Era of Social Distancing and Lockdowns," CESifo Working Paper Series 8845, CESifo.
    10. Bernardo Candia & Olivier Coibion & Yuriy Gorodnichenko, 2020. "Communication and the Beliefs of Economic Agents," NBER Working Papers 27800, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Binder, Carola Conces, 2018. "Inflation expectations and the price at the pump," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 1-18.
    12. Coibion, Olivier & Gorodnichenko, Yuriy & Kumar, Saten & Pedemonte, Mathieu, 2020. "Inflation expectations as a policy tool?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 124(C).
    13. Abildgren, Kim & Kuchler, Andreas, 2021. "Revisiting the inflation perception conundrum," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    14. Haldane, Andrew & Macaulay, Alistair & McMahon, Michael, 2020. "The 3 E's of Central Bank Communication with the Public," CEPR Discussion Papers 14265, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    15. Goldfayn-Frank, Olga & Wohlfart, Johannes, 2020. "Expectation formation in a new environment: Evidence from the German reunification," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 115(C), pages 301-320.
    16. Patrick Bareinz & Fabian Koenings, 2021. "Framing of Economic News and Policy Support During a Pandemic: Evidence from an Information Experiment," Jena Economic Research Papers 2021-004, Friedrich-Schiller-University Jena.
    17. Binder, Carola Conces, 2019. "Comment on “Central Bank announcements: Big news for little people?” by Michael Lamla and Dmitri Vinogradov," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 39-44.
    18. Hwang, In Do & Lustenberger, Thomas & Rossi, Enzo, 2021. "Does communication influence executives’ opinion of central bank policy?☆," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 115(C).
    19. Peter Andre & Carlo Pizzinelli & Christopher Roth & Johannes Wohlfart, 2019. "Subjective Models Of The Macroeconomy: Evidence From Experts And A Representative Sample," CEBI working paper series 19-11, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics. The Center for Economic Behavior and Inequality (CEBI).
    20. Lamla, Michael J. & Vinogradov, Dmitri V., 2019. "Central bank announcements: Big news for little people?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 21-38.
    21. Istrefi, Klodiana, 2019. "Comment on: Enhancing central bank communications using simple and relatable information," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 16-20.

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