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The influence of supermarket prices on consumer inflation expectations

Author

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  • Chua, Chew Lian
  • Tsiaplias, Sarantis

Abstract

Using data on the inflation expectations of 85 thousand consumers and a unique data set of price changes at Australian supermarkets, we show that consumers form inflation expectations that are excessively influenced by particular elements of the cross-sectional distribution of price changes. The estimates provide novel evidence that the right tail of supermarket price changes, which has largely been ignored in the literature to date, is a material factor in explaining inflation expectations. The right tail of supermarket price changes materially raises inflation expectations, particularly for lower income households, leading to the presence of income-dependence in the expectation formation process. The results shed new light on the informativeness of cross-sectional supermarket price changes for consumer beliefs about inflation.

Suggested Citation

  • Chua, Chew Lian & Tsiaplias, Sarantis, 2024. "The influence of supermarket prices on consumer inflation expectations," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 219(C), pages 414-433.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:jeborg:v:219:y:2024:i:c:p:414-433
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jebo.2024.01.022
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Consumers; Supermarket prices; Inflation expectations; Rational inattention; Cognitive limitations;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D12 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Consumer Economics: Empirical Analysis
    • D22 - Microeconomics - - Production and Organizations - - - Firm Behavior: Empirical Analysis
    • E30 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)

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