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The Subjective Inflation Expectations of Households and Firms: Measurement, Determinants, and Implications

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  • Michael Weber
  • Francesco D'Acunto
  • Yuriy Gorodnichenko
  • Olivier Coibion

Abstract

Households' and firms' subjective inflation expectations play a central role in macroeconomic and intertemporal microeconomic models. We discuss how subjective inflation expectations are measured, the patterns they display, their determinants, and how they shape households' and firms' economic choices in the data and help us make sense of the observed heterogeneous reactions to business-cycle shocks and policy interventions. We conclude by highlighting the relevant open questions and why tackling them is important for academic research and policymaking.

Suggested Citation

  • Michael Weber & Francesco D'Acunto & Yuriy Gorodnichenko & Olivier Coibion, 2022. "The Subjective Inflation Expectations of Households and Firms: Measurement, Determinants, and Implications," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 36(3), pages 157-184, Summer.
    • Handle: RePEc:aea:jecper:v:36:y:2022:i:3:p:157-84
    DOI: 10.1257/jep.36.3.157
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    Cited by:

    1. Mark Setterfield, 2022. "Inflation and distribution during the post-COVID recovery: a Kaleckian approach," Working Papers 2209, New School for Social Research, Department of Economics.
    2. Michael Weber, 2022. "Subjective inflation expectations of households," Business Economics, Palgrave Macmillan;National Association for Business Economics, vol. 57(4), pages 217-221, October.
    3. Søren Leth-Petersen & Andrew Caplin & Eungik Lee & Johan Sæverud, 2022. "Communicating Social Security Reform," CEBI working paper series 22-19, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics. The Center for Economic Behavior and Inequality (CEBI).
    4. Marcela De Castro-Valderrama & Santiago Forero-Alvarado & Nicolas Moreno-Arias & Sara Naranjo-Saldarriaga, 2022. "Unravelling the Narratives Behind Macroeconomic Forecasts," IHEID Working Papers 18-2022, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies.
    5. Alberto Prati, 2022. "The well-being cost of inflation inequalities," CEP Discussion Papers dp1870, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C83 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs - - - Survey Methods; Sampling Methods
    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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