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Managing households' expectations with unconventional policies

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  • D'Acunto, Francesco
  • Hoang, Daniel
  • Weber, Michael

Abstract

Binding lower bounds on interest rates and large government deficits limit the scope of fiscal and monetary policies to stimulate households' spending through financial intermediaries and firms. Policymakers have thus been implementing unconventional policies that aim to increase households' spending directly through managing their expectations. We first show theoretically and empirically that higher in ation expectations increase households' consumption. We then design a difference-in-differences strategy to assess the effectiveness of unconventional fiscal policy and forward guidance, both of which aim to raise aggregate demand via managing expectations. Whereas unconventional fiscal policy increases households' expectations and spending, forward guidance announcements do not.

Suggested Citation

  • D'Acunto, Francesco & Hoang, Daniel & Weber, Michael, 2021. "Managing households' expectations with unconventional policies," Working Paper Series in Economics 148, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Department of Economics and Management.
  • Handle: RePEc:zbw:kitwps:148
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    Cited by:

    1. Coibion, Olivier & Gorodnichenko, Yuriy & Weber, Michael, 2020. "Does Policy Communication During COVID work?," Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt0zp1944k, Department of Economics, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley.
    2. Francesco D'Acunto & Daniel Hoang & Maritta Paloviita & Michael Weber, 2020. "Effective Policy Communication: Targets versus Instruments," Working Papers 2020-148, Becker Friedman Institute for Research In Economics.
    3. Christopher Roth & Sonja Settele & Johannes Wohlfart, 2020. "Risk Exposure and Acquisition of Macroeconomic Information," CESifo Working Paper Series 8634, CESifo.
    4. Conrad, Christian & Enders, Zeno & Glas, Alexander, 2020. "The role of information and experience for households' inflation expectations," Working Papers 20, German Research Foundation's Priority Programme 1859 "Experience and Expectation. Historical Foundations of Economic Behaviour", Humboldt University Berlin.
    5. Coibion, Olivier & Gorodnichenko, Yuriy & Weber, Michael, 2020. "Does Policy Communication during COVID-19 Work?," IZA Discussion Papers 13355, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    6. Felix Montag & Alina Sagimuldina & Monika Schnitzer, 2020. "Are temporary value-added tax reductions passed on to consumers? Evidence from Germany's stimulus," Papers 2008.08511, arXiv.org.
    7. Abhay Aneja & Nirupama Kulkarni & S.K. Ritadhi, 2021. "Consumption Tax Reform and the Real Economy: Evidence from India’s Adoption of a Value-Added Tax," Working Papers 48, Ashoka University, Department of Economics.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Expectations; Household Finance; Heterogeneous Beliefs; Fiscal Policy; Monetary Policy; Cognitive Abilities; Behavioral Macroeconomics; Macroeconomics with Micro Data;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D12 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Consumer Economics: Empirical Analysis
    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
    • D91 - Microeconomics - - Micro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on Decision Making
    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E65 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Studies of Particular Policy Episodes

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