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Trust in the Central Bank and Inflation Expectations

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Abstract

Using micro data from the 2015 Dutch CentERpanel, we examine whether trust in the European Central Bank (ECB) influences individuals’ expectations and uncertainty about future inflation, and also whether it anchors inflation expectations. We find that higher trust in the ECB lowers inflation expectations on average, and significantly reduces uncertainty about future inflation. Moreover, results from quantile regressions suggest that trusting the ECB increases (lowers) inflation expectations when the latter are below (above) the ECB’s inflation target. These findings hold after controlling for people’s knowledge about the objectives of the ECB. In addition, higher trust in the ECB raises expectations about GDP growth. The findings suggest that a central bank can influence the economy through people’s expectations, even in times when conventional monetary policy tools likely have weak effects.

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  • Dimitris Christelis & Dimitris Georgarakos & Tullio Jappelli & Maarten van Rooij, 2016. "Trust in the Central Bank and Inflation Expectations," CSEF Working Papers 458, Centre for Studies in Economics and Finance (CSEF), University of Naples, Italy.
  • Handle: RePEc:sef:csefwp:458
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Maarten van Rooij & Jakob de Haan, 2016. "Will helicopter money be spent? New evidence," DNB Working Papers 538, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
    2. In Do Hwang, 2018. "Central Bank Reputation and Inflation-Unemployment Performance: Empirical Evidence from an Executive Survey of 62 Countries," Working Papers 2018-14, Economic Research Institute, Bank of Korea.
    3. Michael Lamla & Damjan Pfajfar & Lea Rendell, 2018. "Confidence in Central Banks and Inflation Expectations," 2018 Meeting Papers 945, Society for Economic Dynamics.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Inflation expectations; Inflation uncertainty; Anchoring; Trust in the ECB; Subjective Expectations;

    JEL classification:

    • D12 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Consumer Economics: Empirical Analysis
    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
    • E03 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General - - - Behavioral Macroeconomics
    • E40 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - General
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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