Dutch Households’ Perceptions of Economic Growth and Inflation
This paper analysis the results of a survey on qualitative and quantitative perceptions and expectations of past, current and future macroeconomic developments among a representative household panel (DNB Household Survey). Perceptions of economic growth and inflation show a large dispersion. For the median respondents, however, the quantitative perceptions were found to be quite accurate. There is some evidence that the concept of economic growth is a more abstract notion for the general public than inflation. The results on qualitative and quantitative perceptions of current inflation could be interpreted as the Dutch public having a high level of inflation aversion. Those who have declared themselves more knowledgeable are also more actively involved in dealing with financial issues. The empirical evidence seems to corroborate that individuals with higher self-assessed knowledge levels are better informed indeed and have more accurate quantitative perceptions of economic growth and inflation. The survey also provides further insights on the connection between perceptions of current and past economic developments on the one hand, and expectations of future developments on the other. At the individual level there is a strong and robust correlation between expected growth and inflation for the next year and the perceptions of the current situation (rule of thumb behavior). But short-term expectations are also influenced by the views individuals hold on longer-term developments. Moreover, the results confirm the observed persistence in annual acroeconomic growth and inflation figures.
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- Annamaria Lusardi & Olivia S. Mitchell, 2006.
"Financial Literacy and Planning: Implications for Retirement Wellbeing,"
DNB Working Papers
078, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
- Annamarie Lusardi & Olivia S. Mitchell, 2005. "Financial Literacy and Planning: Implications for Retirement Wellbeing," Working Papers wp108, University of Michigan, Michigan Retirement Research Center.
- Annamaria Lusardi & Olivia S. Mitchell, 2005. "Financial Literacy and Planning: Implications for Retirement Wellbeing," CeRP Working Papers 46, Center for Research on Pensions and Welfare Policies, Turin (Italy).
- Annamaria Lusardi & Olivia S. Mitchell, 2011. "Financial Literacy and Planning: Implications for Retirement Wellbeing," NBER Working Papers 17078, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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Nobel Prize in Economics documents
2000-6, Nobel Prize Committee.
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"Why Do People Dislike Inflation?,"
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
1115, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- Marianne A. Hilgert & Jeanne M. Hogarth & Sondra G. Beverly, 2003. "Household financial management: the connection between knowledge and behavior," Federal Reserve Bulletin, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.), issue Jul, pages 309-322.
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98-09-086, Santa Fe Institute.
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