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Measuring expectations of inflation: Effects of survey mode, wording, and opportunities to revise

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  • Bruine de Bruin, Wändi
  • van der Klaauw, Wilbert
  • van Rooij, Maarten
  • Teppa, Federica
  • de Vos, Klaas

Abstract

Several national surveys aim to elicit consumers’ inflation expectations. Median expectations tend to track objective inflation estimates over time, although responses display large dispersion. Medians also tend to differ between surveys, possibly reflecting survey design differences. Using a nationally representative Dutch sample, we evaluate the importance of three survey design features in explaining observed differences: mode (face-to-face vs. web), question wording (‘prices in general’ vs. ‘inflation’), and the explicit opportunity to revise responses. We examine effects on item non-responses, revisions, reported inflation expectations and their deviation from the CPI inflation rate. We discuss implications of our findings for survey design.

Suggested Citation

  • Bruine de Bruin, Wändi & van der Klaauw, Wilbert & van Rooij, Maarten & Teppa, Federica & de Vos, Klaas, 2017. "Measuring expectations of inflation: Effects of survey mode, wording, and opportunities to revise," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 45-58.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:joepsy:v:59:y:2017:i:c:p:45-58
    DOI: 10.1016/j.joep.2017.01.011
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    Cited by:

    1. Jakob de Haan & Marco Hoeberichts & Renske Maas & Federica Teppa, 2016. "Inflation in the euro area and why it matters," DNB Occasional Studies 1403, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Consumer surveys; Inflation expectations; Mode effects; Question wording;

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations

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