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Czy pytając konsumentów o wartość przewidywanej inflacji, można uzyskać wiarygodne i użyteczne informacje?

Author

Listed:
  • Ewa Stanisławska

    (Narodowy Bank Polski)

Abstract

Cel niniejszego opracowania jest dwojaki. Po pierwsze, przedstawiamy problemy związane z pomiarem oczekiwań inflacyjnych konsumentów przy pomocy pytania ilościowego na przykładzie ankiety przeprowadzanej wśród polskich konsumentów. Po drugie, badamy, jakie czynniki wpływają na te oczekiwania, i porównujemy wyniki do innych prac, wykorzystujących dane z pytania jakościowego. Nowym elementem badania procesu formułowania oczekiwań inflacyjnych jest ocena heterogeniczności modeli stosowanych przez konsumentów. Ilościowe oszacowania przyszłej inflacji deklarowane w ankietach są znacznie obciążone, mało precyzyjne i częściowo niespójne (na poziomie indywidualnych odpowiedzi) z odpowiedziami na pozostałe pytania dotyczące bieżących i przyszłych zmian cen. Mimo tych wad dynamika przeciętnych oczekiwań inflacyjnych jest bardzo silnie związana z dynamiką bieżącej inflacji oraz statystyką bilansową podsumowującą jakościowe opinie konsumentów na temat przyszłej inflacji. Oczekiwania inflacyjne w dużym stopniu są zależne od bieżącej lub postrzeganej inflacji; waga czynnika antycypacyjnego przeciętnych oczekiwań inflacyjnych wynosi około 0,3. Na przeciętne oczekiwania oddziałuje również dynamika płac. Różne grupy konsumentów stosują odmienne modele formułowania oczekiwań.

Suggested Citation

  • Ewa Stanisławska, 2018. "Czy pytając konsumentów o wartość przewidywanej inflacji, można uzyskać wiarygodne i użyteczne informacje?," Bank i Kredyt, Narodowy Bank Polski, vol. 49(5), pages 515-556.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbp:nbpbik:v:49:y:2018:i:5:p:415-556
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    oczekiwania inflacyjne konsumentów; dane ankietowe; pomiar oczekiwań inflacyjnych; heterogeniczność oczekiwań;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C83 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs - - - Survey Methods; Sampling Methods
    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations

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