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The demographics of inflation opinion surveys

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  • Michael F. Bryan
  • Guhan Venkatu

Abstract

In this Commentary, we document that people report very different perceptions and predictions of inflation depending upon their income, education, age, race, and gender — a strange finding that may provide an important clue to understanding how to interpret survey data of inflation expectations.

Suggested Citation

  • Michael F. Bryan & Guhan Venkatu, 2001. "The demographics of inflation opinion surveys," Economic Commentary, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, issue Oct.
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedcec:y:2001:i:oct15
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Lanne, Markku & Luoma, Arto & Luoto, Jani, 2009. "A naïve sticky information model of households' inflation expectations," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 33(6), pages 1332-1344, June.
    2. Bovi, Maurizio, 2013. "Are the representative agent’s beliefs based on efficient econometric models?," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 633-648.
    3. Easaw, Joshy & Golinelli, Roberto & Malgarini, Marco, 2013. "What determines households inflation expectations? Theory and evidence from a household survey," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 1-13.
    4. Pfajfar, Damjan, 2013. "Formation of rationally heterogeneous expectations," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(8), pages 1434-1452.
    5. Ehrmann, Michael & Tzamourani, Panagiota, 2012. "Memories of high inflation," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 28(2), pages 174-191.
    6. Bruine de Bruin, Wändi & van der Klaauw, Wilbert & Topa, Giorgio, 2011. "Expectations of inflation: The biasing effect of thoughts about specific prices," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 32(5), pages 834-845.
    7. Rodolfo Arioli & Colm Bates & Heinz Dieden & Ioana Duca & Roberta Friz & Christian Gayer & Geoff Kenny & Aidan Meyler & Iskra Pavlova, 2016. "EU Consumers’ Quantitative Inflation Perceptions and Expectations: An Evaluation," European Economy - Discussion Papers 2015 - 038, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    8. David-Jan Jansen & Matthias Neuenkirch, 2017. "News consumption, political preferences, and accurate views on inflation," DNB Working Papers 549, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
    9. Dräger, Lena & Lamla, Michael J. & Pfajfar, Damjan, 2016. "Are survey expectations theory-consistent? The role of central bank communication and news," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 84-111.
    10. Bruine de Bruin, Wändi & van der Klaauw, Wilbert & van Rooij, Maarten & Teppa, Federica & de Vos, Klaas, 2017. "Measuring expectations of inflation: Effects of survey mode, wording, and opportunities to revise," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 45-58.
    11. Michael J. Lamla & Lena Draeger & Damjan Pfajfar, 2013. "Are Consumer Expectations Theory-Consistent? The Role of Macroeconomic Determinants and Central Bank Communication," KOF Working papers 13-345, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich.
    12. Malka de Castro Campos & Federica Teppa, 2016. "Individual inflation expectations in a declining-inflation environment: Evidence from survey data," DNB Working Papers 508, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
    13. Branch, William A., 2007. "Sticky information and model uncertainty in survey data on inflation expectations," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 245-276, January.
    14. Binder, Carola Conces, 2015. "Whose expectations augment the Phillips curve?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 136(C), pages 35-38.
    15. Georganas, Sotiris & Healy, Paul J. & Li, Nan, 2014. "Frequency bias in consumers׳ perceptions of inflation: An experimental study," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 144-158.
    16. Yusuf Soner Baskaya & Hakan Kara & Defne Mutluer, 2008. "Expectations, Communication and Monetary Policy in Turkey," Working Papers 0801, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
    17. Stix, Helmut, 2009. "Perceived inflation and the euro: Evidence from an Austrian survey," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 25(4), pages 547-561, December.
    18. Lena Dräger & Giang Nghiem, 2016. "Are Consumers’ Spending Decisions in Line With an Euler Equation?," Working Papers 1802, Gutenberg School of Management and Economics, Johannes Gutenberg-Universität Mainz, revised 26 Jan 2018.
    19. Li, Shaoyu & Wei, Lijia & Xu, Zhiwei, 2017. "Dynamic asset allocation and consumption under inflation inequality: The impacts of inflation experiences and expectations," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 113-125.
    20. Wändi Bruine de Bruin & Wilbert Van der Klaauw & Julie S. Downs & Baruch Fischhoff & Giorgio Topa & Olivier Armantier, 2010. "The effect of question wording on reported expectations and perceptions of inflation," Staff Reports 443, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    21. Wilbert Van der Klaauw & Wändi Bruine de Bruin & Giorgio Topa & Simon M. Potter & Michael F. Bryan, 2008. "Rethinking the measurement of household inflation expectations: preliminary findings," Staff Reports 359, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    22. Bruine de Bruin, Wändi & van der Klaauw, Wilbert & Topa, Giorgio & Downs, Julie S. & Fischhoff, Baruch & Armantier, Olivier, 2012. "The effect of question wording on consumers’ reported inflation expectations," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 749-757.

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    Keywords

    Inflation (Finance) ; Forecasting;

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