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Inflation expectations, consumption and the lower bound: micro evidence from a large euro area survey

Author

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  • Duca, Ioana A.
  • Kenny, Geoff
  • Reuter, Andreas

Abstract

This paper exploits a very large multi-country survey of consumers to investigate empirically the relationship between inflation expectations and consumer spending. We document that for the Euro Area and almost all of its constituent countries this relationship is generally positive: a higher expected change in inflation is associated with an increase in the probability that a given consumer will make major purchases. Moreover, in line with the predictions of macroeconomic theory, the impact is stronger when the lower bound on nominal interest rates is binding. Also, using the estimated spending probabilities from our micro-level analysis, we indirectly estimate the impact of a gradual increase in inflation expectations on aggregate private consumption. We find the effects to be economically relevant, especially when the lower bound is binding. JEL Classification: E21, E31, E52, D12, D84

Suggested Citation

  • Duca, Ioana A. & Kenny, Geoff & Reuter, Andreas, 2018. "Inflation expectations, consumption and the lower bound: micro evidence from a large euro area survey," Working Paper Series 2196, European Central Bank.
  • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20182196
    Note: 339061
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    File URL: https://www.ecb.europa.eu//pub/pdf/scpwps/ecb.wp2196.en.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Olivier Coibion & Dimitris Georgarakos & Yuriy Gorodnichenko & Maarten van Rooij, 2019. "How does consumption respond to news about inflation? Field evidence from a randomized control trial," DNB Working Papers 651, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
    2. Gabriele Galati & Richhild Moessner & Maarten van Rooij, 2020. "The anchoring of long-term inflation expectations of consumers: insights from a new survey," DNB Working Papers 688, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
    3. Hills, Timothy S. & Nakata, Taisuke & Schmidt, Sebastian, 2019. "Effective lower bound risk," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 120(C).
    4. Dräger, Lena & Lamla, Michael J. & Pfajfar, Damjan, 2020. "The Hidden Heterogeneity of Inflation Expectations and its Implications," Hannover Economic Papers (HEP) dp-666, Leibniz Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät.
    5. Lieb, Lenard & Schuffels, Johannes, 2020. "Inflation expectations and consumer spending: the role of household balance sheets (RM/19/022-revised-)," Research Memorandum 006, Maastricht University, Graduate School of Business and Economics (GSBE).
    6. Coibion, Olivier & Gorodnichenko, Yuriy & Kumar, Saten & Pedemonte, Mathieu, 2020. "Inflation expectations as a policy tool?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 124(C).
    7. Haldane, Andrew & Macaulay, Alistair & McMahon, Michael, 2020. "The 3 E's of Central Bank Communication with the Public," CEPR Discussion Papers 14265, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    8. Lieb, Lenard & Schuffels, Johannes, 2019. "Inflation expectations and consumer spending: the role of household balance sheets," Research Memorandum 022, Maastricht University, Graduate School of Business and Economics (GSBE).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    consumer inflation expectations; consumption; lower bound; micro data;

    JEL classification:

    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • D12 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Consumer Economics: Empirical Analysis
    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations

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