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What Matters in Households’ Inflation Expectations?

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  • Philippe Andrade
  • Erwan Gautier
  • Eric Mengus

Abstract

We provide evidence that households discretize their inflation expectations so that what matters for durable consumption decisions is the broad inflation regime they expect. Using survey data, we document that a large share of the adjustment in the average inflation expectation comes from the change in the share of households expecting stable prices; these households also consume relatively less than the ones expecting positive inflation. In contrast, variations of expectations across households expecting a positive inflation rate are associated with much smaller differences in individual durable consumption choices. We illustrate how this mitigates the expectation channel of monetary policy.

Suggested Citation

  • Philippe Andrade & Erwan Gautier & Eric Mengus, 2020. "What Matters in Households’ Inflation Expectations?," Working papers 770, Banque de France.
  • Handle: RePEc:bfr:banfra:770
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Inflation Expectations; Euler Equation; Survey Data; Imperfect Information; Adjustment Costs; Stabilization policies;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D12 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Consumer Economics: Empirical Analysis
    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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