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What Matters in Households’ Inflation Expectations?

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  • Philippe Andrade
  • Erwan Gautier
  • Eric Mengus

Abstract

We provide evidence that households discretize their inflation expectations so that what matters for durable consumption decisions is the broad inflation regime they expect. Using survey data, we document that a large share of the adjustment in the average inflation expectation comes from the change in the share of households expecting stable prices; these households also consume relatively less than the ones expecting positive inflation. In contrast, variations of expectations across households expecting a positive inflation rate are associated with much smaller differences in individual durable consumption choices. We illustrate how this mitigates the expectation channel of monetary policy.

Suggested Citation

  • Philippe Andrade & Erwan Gautier & Eric Mengus, 2020. "What Matters in Households’ Inflation Expectations?," Working papers 770, Banque de France.
  • Handle: RePEc:bfr:banfra:770
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    Cited by:

    1. Ina Hajdini & Edward S. Knotek & John Leer & Mathieu Pedemonte & Robert W. Rich & Raphael Schoenle, 2022. "Indirect Consumer Inflation Expectations: Theory and Evidence," Working Papers 22-35, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    2. Coleman, Winnie & Nautz, Dieter, 2021. "Inflation expectations, inflation target credibility and the COVID-19 pandemic: New evidence from Germany," CFS Working Paper Series 658, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
    3. Gabriele Galati & Richhild Moessner & Maarten van Rooij, 2023. "The anchoring of long-term inflation expectations of consumers: insights from a new survey," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 75(1), pages 96-116.
    4. Metiu, Norbert & Prieto, Esteban, 2023. "The macroeconomic effects of inflation uncertainty," Discussion Papers 32/2023, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    5. Stanisławska, Ewa & Paloviita, Maritta, 2021. "Medium- vs. short-term consumer inflation expectations: Evidence from a new euro area survey," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 10/2021, Bank of Finland.
    6. Frédérique Savignac & Erwan Gautier & Yuriy Gorodnichenko & Olivier Coibion, 2021. "Firms' Inflation Expectations: New Evidence from France," NBER Working Papers 29376, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Stanisławska, Ewa & Paloviita, Maritta, 2021. "Responsiveness of consumers' medium-term inflation expectations : evidence from a new euro area survey," Research Discussion Papers 10/2021, Bank of Finland.
    8. Baumann, Ursel & Darracq Pariès, Matthieu & Westermann, Thomas & Riggi, Marianna & Bobeica, Elena & Meyler, Aidan & Böninghausen, Benjamin & Fritzer, Friedrich & Trezzi, Riccardo & Jonckheere, Jana & , 2021. "Inflation expectations and their role in Eurosystem forecasting," Occasional Paper Series 264, European Central Bank.
    9. Michael Weber & Yuriy Gorodnichenko & Olivier Coibion, 2023. "The Expected, Perceived, and Realized Inflation of US Households Before and During the COVID19 Pandemic," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 71(1), pages 326-368, March.
    10. Philippe Andrade & Jordi Gali & Hervé Le Bihan & Julien Matheron, 2021. "Should the ECB Adjust Its Strategy in the Face of a Lower r*?," Working Papers 22-1, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
    11. Gorodnichenko, Yuriy & Sergeyev, Dmitriy, 2021. "Zero Lower Bound on Inflation Expectations," IZA Discussion Papers 14853, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    12. Hoffmann, Mathias & Moench, Emanuel & Pavlova, Lora & Schultefrankenfeld, Guido, 2022. "Would households understand average inflation targeting?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 129(S), pages 52-66.
    13. Bańnkowska, Katarzyna & Borlescu, Ana Maria & Charalambakis, Evangelos & Da Silva, António Dias & Di Laurea, Davide & Dossche, Maarten & Georgarakos, Dimitris & Honkkila, Juha & Kennedy, Neale & Kenny, 2021. "ECB Consumer Expectations Survey: an overview and first evaluation," Occasional Paper Series 287, European Central Bank.
    14. Michal Marencak, 2023. "State-dependent inflation expectations and consumption choices," Working and Discussion Papers WP 10/2023, Research Department, National Bank of Slovakia.
    15. Gabriele Galati & Richhild Moessner & Maarten van Rooij, 2022. "Reactions of household inflation expectations to a symmetric inflation target and high inflation (August 2022 update)," Working Papers 743, DNB.
    16. Gabriele Galati & Richhild Moessner & Maarten van Rooij, 2021. "Anchoring of consumers’ long-term euro area inflation expectations during the pandemic," Working Papers 715, DNB.
    17. repec:zbw:bofrdp:2021_010 is not listed on IDEAS
    18. Assenmacher, Katrin & Glöckler, Gabriel & Holton, Sarah & Trautmann, Peter & Ioannou, Demosthenes & Mee, Simon & Alonso, Conception & Argiri, Eleni & Arigoni, Filippo & Bakk-Simon, Klára & Bergbauer, , 2021. "Clear, consistent and engaging: ECB monetary policy communication in a changing world," Occasional Paper Series 274, European Central Bank.
    19. Andrade, Philippe & Galí, Jordi & Le Bihan, Hervé & Matheron, Julien, 2021. "Should the ECB adjust its strategy in the face of a lower r★?," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).
    20. Gunda‐Alexandra Detmers & Sui‐Jade Ho & Özer Karagedikli, 2022. "Understanding Consumer Inflation Expectations during the COVID‐19 Pandemic," Australian Economic Review, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, vol. 55(1), pages 141-154, March.
    21. Erwan Gautier & Jérémi Montornès, 2022. "Household Inflation Expectations in France: Lessons from a New Survey and the COVID-19 Crisis," Economie et Statistique / Economics and Statistics, Institut National de la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques (INSEE), issue 534-35, pages 3-19.
    22. Coleman, Winnie & Nautz, Dieter, 2022. "Inflation Expectations, Inflation Target Credibility and the COVID-19 Pandemic: New Evidence from Germany," VfS Annual Conference 2022 (Basel): Big Data in Economics 264094, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    23. Bouche Paul, & Gerardin Mathilde, & Gautier Erwan, Savignac Frédérique & Savignac Frédérique., 2021. "Measuring firms’ inflation expectations [Mesurer les anticipations d’inflation des entreprises]," Bulletin de la Banque de France, Banque de France, issue 236.
    24. Anat Bracha & Jenny Tang, 2022. "Inflation Levels and (In)Attention," Working Papers 22-4, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Inflation Expectations; Euler Equation; Survey Data; Imperfect Information; Adjustment Costs; Stabilization policies;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D12 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Consumer Economics: Empirical Analysis
    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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