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Political Shocks and Inflation Expectations: Evidence from the 2022 Russian Invasion of Ukraine

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  • Lena Dräger
  • Klaus Gründler
  • Niklas Potrafke

Abstract

How do global political shocks influence individuals’ expectations about economic outcomes? We run a unique survey on inflation expectations among 145 tenured economics professors in Germany and exploit the 2022 Russian invasion in Ukraine as a natural experiment to identify the effect of a global political shock on expectations about national inflation rates. We find that the Russian invasion increased short-run inflation expectations for 2022 by 0.75 percentage points. Treatment effects are smaller regarding mid-term expectations for 2023 (0.47 percentage points) and are close to zero for longer periods. Text analysis of open questions shows that experts increase their inflation expectations because they expect supplyside effects to become increasingly important after the invasion. Moreover, experts in the treatment group are less likely to favor an immediate reaction of monetary policy to the increased inflation, which gives further evidence of the shock being interpreted primarily as a supply-side shock.

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  • Lena Dräger & Klaus Gründler & Niklas Potrafke, 2022. "Political Shocks and Inflation Expectations: Evidence from the 2022 Russian Invasion of Ukraine," ifo Working Paper Series 371, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ifowps:_371
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    3. Mensi, Walid & Ko, Hee-Un & Sensoy, Ahmet & Kang, Sang Hoon, 2024. "Higher-order moment connectedness between stock and commodity markets and portfolio management," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 89(C).
    4. Nils D. Steiner & Ruxanda Berlinschi & Etienne Farvaque & Jan Fidrmuc & Philipp Harms & Alexander Mihailov & Michael Neugart & Piotr Stanek, 2023. "Rallying around the EU flag: Russia's invasion of Ukraine and attitudes toward European integration," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 61(2), pages 283-301, March.
    5. Boumans, Dorine & Gründler, Klaus & Potrafke, Niklas & Ruthardt, Fabian, 2024. "Political leaders and macroeconomic expectations: Evidence from a global survey experiment," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 235(C).
    6. Lena Dräger & Michael J. Lamla, 2024. "Consumers' macroeconomic expectations," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 38(2), pages 427-451, April.
    7. An, Zidong & Binder, Carola & Sheng, Xuguang Simon, 2023. "Gas price expectations of Chinese households," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 120(C).
    8. Aharon, David Y. & Aziz, Mukhriz Izraf Azman & Nor, Safwan Mohd, 2023. "Cross-country study of the linkages between COVID-19, oil prices, and inflation in the G7 countries," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 57(C).
    9. Conces Binder, Carola & Campbell, Jeffrey & Ryngaert, Jane, 2022. "Consumer Inflation Expectations: Daily Dynamics," MPRA Paper 117628, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Afunts, Geghetsik & Cato, Misina & Schmidt, Tobias, 2023. "Inflation Expectations in the Wake of the War in Ukraine," VfS Annual Conference 2023 (Regensburg): Growth and the "sociale Frage" 277577, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    11. Ghaemi Asl, Mahdi & Ben Jabeur, Sami, 2024. "Could the Russia-Ukraine war stir up the persistent memory of interconnectivity among Islamic equity markets, energy commodities, and environmental factors?," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).
    12. Domenico Depalo, 2024. "Gloomy expectations after the invasion of Ukraine," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 67(1), pages 97-109, July.
    13. Behnam Zakeri & Katsia Paulavets & Leonardo Barreto-Gomez & Luis Gomez Echeverri & Shonali Pachauri & Benigna Boza-Kiss & Caroline Zimm & Joeri Rogelj & Felix Creutzig & Diana Ürge-Vorsatz & David G. , 2022. "Pandemic, War, and Global Energy Transitions," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(17), pages 1-23, August.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Inflation expectations; belief formation; natural experiment; 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine; survey; economic experts;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E71 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on the Macro Economy
    • D74 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Conflict; Conflict Resolution; Alliances; Revolutions
    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations

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