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The Global Economic Impact of Politicians: Evidence from an International Survey RCT

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Listed:
  • Dorine Boumans
  • Klaus Gründler
  • Niklas Potrafke
  • Fabian Ruthardt
  • Fabian Ruthardt

Abstract

A large-scale RCT survey of 843 experts in 107 countries examined how the US president influences economic expectations of international experts, including GDP growth, unemployment, inflation and trade in their country. The results show that the election of Joe Biden increased growth expectations of international experts by 0.98 percentage points for the year 2021, that treatment effects materialize only in the short-run and experts’ uncertainty increased after the election. The results suggest that exceptional politicians influence global economic outcomes.

Suggested Citation

  • Dorine Boumans & Klaus Gründler & Niklas Potrafke & Fabian Ruthardt & Fabian Ruthardt, 2021. "The Global Economic Impact of Politicians: Evidence from an International Survey RCT," EconPol Working Paper 56, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
  • Handle: RePEc:ces:econwp:_56
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    Cited by:

    1. Philipp Hauber & Stormy-Annika Mildner & Galina Kolev & Jürgen Matthes & Sonja Peterson & Reimund Schwarze & Christiane Lemke & Martin, Thunert & Laura von Daniels & Josef Braml & Johannes Varwick & D, 2021. "Die USA unter Joe Biden: Kehrtwende oder "America first light"?," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 74(01), pages 03-37, January.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • A11 - General Economics and Teaching - - General Economics - - - Role of Economics; Role of Economists
    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development

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