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Political uncertainty and risk premia

  • Pástor, Ľuboš
  • Veronesi, Pietro

We develop a general equilibrium model of government policy choice in which stock prices respond to political news. The model implies that political uncertainty commands a risk premium whose magnitude is larger in weaker economic conditions. Political uncertainty reduces the value of the implicit put protection that the government provides to the market. It also makes stocks more volatile and more correlated, especially when the economy is weak. We find empirical evidence consistent with these predictions.

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File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0304405X13002080
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Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Financial Economics.

Volume (Year): 110 (2013)
Issue (Month): 3 ()
Pages: 520-545

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Handle: RePEc:eee:jfinec:v:110:y:2013:i:3:p:520-545
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/505576

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  1. Lubos Pastor & Pietro Veronesi, 2010. "Uncertainty about Government Policy and Stock Prices," Working Papers 2010-008, Becker Friedman Institute for Research In Economics.
  2. Ellen R. McGrattan & Edward C. Prescott, 2005. "Taxes, Regulations, and the Value of U.S. and U.K. Corporations," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 72(3), pages 767-796.
  3. George Bittlingmayer, 1998. "Output, Stock Volatility, and Political Uncertainty in a Natural Experiment: Germany, 1880-1940," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 53(6), pages 2243-2257, December.
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  7. Persson, T. & Tabellini, G., 1993. "Is Inequality Harmful for Growth," Papers 537, Stockholm - International Economic Studies.
  8. Rodrik, Dani & Alesina, Alberto, 1994. "Distributive Politics and Economic Growth," Scholarly Articles 4551798, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  9. Bruno Strulovici, 2008. "Learning While Voting: Determinants of Collective Experimentation," Economics Series Working Papers 2008-WO8, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
  10. Grossman, Gene & Helpman, Elhanan, 1993. "Protection for Sale," CEPR Discussion Papers 827, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  11. Allan Drazen & William Easterly, 2001. "Do Crises Induce Reform? Simple Empirical Tests of Conventional Wisdom," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(2), pages 129-157, 07.
  12. Pietro Veronesi & Lubos Pastor, 2005. "Was There a Nasdaq Bubble in the Late 1990s?," 2005 Meeting Papers 95, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  13. Francisco J. Gomes & Laurence J. Kotlikoff & Luis M. Viceira, 2007. "The Excess Burden of Government Indecision," NBER Working Papers 12859, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  14. Cuoco, Domenico & Kaniel, Ron, 2009. "Equilibrium Prices in the Presence of Delegated Portfolio Management," CEPR Discussion Papers 7453, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  15. Hassett, Kevin A & Metcalf, Gilbert E, 1999. "Investment with Uncertain Tax Policy: Does Random Tax Policy Discourage Investment?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 109(457), pages 372-93, July.
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  17. Alberto Alesina & Silvia Ardagna & Francesco Trebbi, 2006. "Who Adjusts and When?The Political Economy of Reforms," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 53(si), pages 1.
  18. Rodrik, Dani, 1991. "Policy uncertainty and private investment in developing countries," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 229-242, October.
  19. repec:cup:cbooks:9780521632935 is not listed on IDEAS
  20. Alberto Alesina & Silvia Ardagna & Francesco Trebbi, 2006. "Who adjusts and when? On the political economy of reforms," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 2108, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
  21. Clemens Sialm, 2009. "Tax Changes and Asset Pricing," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(4), pages 1356-83, September.
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  23. Croce, Mariano M. & Nguyen, Thien T. & Schmid, Lukas, 2012. "The market price of fiscal uncertainty," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(5), pages 401-416.
  24. Jinliang Li & Jeffery A. Born, 2006. "Presidential Election Uncertainty And Common Stock Returns In The United States," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 29(4), pages 609-622.
  25. Francisco Gomes & Alexander Michaelides & Valery Polkovnichenko, 2013. "Fiscal Policy and Asset Prices with Incomplete Markets," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 26(2), pages 531-566.
  26. Belo, Frederico & Gala, Vito D. & Li, Jun, 2013. "Government spending, political cycles, and the cross section of stock returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 107(2), pages 305-324.
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  28. M. Max Croce & Howard Kung & Thien T. Nguyen & Lukas Schmid, 2012. "Fiscal Policies and Asset Prices," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 25(9), pages 2635-2672.
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