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Stochastic taxation and asset pricing in dynamic general equilibrium

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  • Sialm, Clemens

Abstract

Tax rates have fluctuated considerably since federal income taxes were introduced in the United States in 1913. This paper analyzes the effects of stochastic taxation on asset prices in a dynamic general equilibrium model. Stochastic taxation affects the after-tax returns of both risky and safe assets. Whenever taxes change, bond and equity prices adjust to clear the asset markets. These price adjustments affect assets with long durations, such as equities and long-term bonds, more than short-term assets. Under plausible conditions, investors require higher term and equity premia as compensation for the risk introduced by tax changes.
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  • Sialm, Clemens, 2006. "Stochastic taxation and asset pricing in dynamic general equilibrium," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 511-540, March.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:dyncon:v:30:y:2006:i:3:p:511-540
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    6. Bryan Kelly & Ľuboš Pástor & Pietro Veronesi, 2016. "The Price of Political Uncertainty: Theory and Evidence from the Option Market," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 71(5), pages 2417-2480, October.
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    9. Unal, Umut, 2015. "Capital Income Taxation and Welfare under DSGE Framework," MPRA Paper 68416, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Thien Nguyen & Lukas Schmid & Howard Kung & Mariano Croce, 2012. "Fiscal Policies and Asset Prices," 2012 Meeting Papers 565, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    11. Thien Nguyen, 2019. "Public Debt and the Slope of the Term Structure," 2019 Meeting Papers 957, Society for Economic Dynamics.
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    13. Clemens Sialm, 2005. "Tax Changes and Asset Pricing: Time-Series Evidence," NBER Working Papers 11756, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. Croce, M. & Nguyen, Thien T. & Raymond, S., 2021. "Persistent government debt and aggregate risk distribution," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 140(2), pages 347-367.
    15. Fischer, Marcel & Jensen, Bjarne Astrup, 2019. "The debt tax shield in general equilibrium," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 151-166.
    16. Mariano Max Croce & Thien T. Nguyen & Steve Raymond, 2019. "Persistent Government Debt and Aggregate Risk Distribution," NBER Working Papers 26177, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    17. Pástor, Ľuboš & Veronesi, Pietro, 2013. "Political uncertainty and risk premia," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 110(3), pages 520-545.
    18. Ali Chebbi, 2015. "Stochastic growth, taxation policy and welfare cost in an open emerging economy," International Review of Economics, Springer;Happiness Economics and Interpersonal Relations (HEIRS), vol. 62(1), pages 57-84, March.
    19. Rapp, Marc Steffen & Schwetzler, Bernhard, 2008. "Equilibrium security prices with capital income taxes and an exogenous interest rate," CEFS Working Paper Series 2008-08, Technische Universität München (TUM), Center for Entrepreneurial and Financial Studies (CEFS).
    20. Brown, David C. & Cederburg, Scott & O’Doherty, Michael S., 2017. "Tax uncertainty and retirement savings diversification," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 126(3), pages 689-712.
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    22. Rainer Niemann, 2007. "The Impact of Tax Uncertainty on Irreversible Investment," CESifo Working Paper Series 2075, CESifo.
    23. Niemann, Rainer, 2006. "The impact of tax uncertainty on irreversible investment," arqus Discussion Papers in Quantitative Tax Research 21, arqus - Arbeitskreis Quantitative Steuerlehre.
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    JEL classification:

    • G1 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets
    • H2 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue

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