IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/aea/aecrev/v99y2009i4p1356-83.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Tax Changes and Asset Pricing

Author

Listed:
  • Clemens Sialm

Abstract

The tax burden on equity securities has varied substantially over time and remains a source of continuing policy debate. This paper investigates whether investors were compensated for the tax burden of equity securities over the period between 1913 and 2006. Taxes on equity securities vary over time due to changes in dividend and capital gains tax rates and due to changes in corporate payout policies. Equity taxes also vary across firms due to persistent differences in propensities to pay dividends. The results indicate an economically plausible and statistically significant tax capitalization over time and cross-sectionally. (JEL G10, G12, H22, H24, N21, N22)

Suggested Citation

  • Clemens Sialm, 2009. "Tax Changes and Asset Pricing," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(4), pages 1356-1383, September.
  • Handle: RePEc:aea:aecrev:v:99:y:2009:i:4:p:1356-83
    Note: DOI: 10.1257/aer.99.4.1356
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.aeaweb.org/articles.php?doi=10.1257/aer.99.4.1356
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: http://www.aeaweb.org/aer/data/sept09/20051100_data.zip
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: http://www.aeaweb.org/aer/data/sept09/20051100_app.pdf
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to AEA members and institutional subscribers.
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. J. B. Chay & Dosoung Choi & Jeffrey Pontiff, 2006. "Market Valuation of Tax‐Timing Options: Evidence from Capital Gains Distributions," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 61(2), pages 837-865, April.
    2. Zhonglan Dai & Edward Maydew & Douglas A. Shackelford & Harold H. Zhang, 2008. "Capital Gains Taxes and Asset Prices: Capitalization or Lock‐in?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 63(2), pages 709-742, April.
    3. Chen, Nai-Fu & Grundy, Bruce & Stambaugh, Robert F, 1990. "Changing Risk, Changing Risk Premiums, and Dividend Yield Effects," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 63(1), pages 51-70, January.
    4. Elton, Edwin J & Gruber, Martin J, 1970. "Marginal Stockholder Tax Rates and the Clientele Effect," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 52(1), pages 68-74, February.
    5. Dhaliwal, Dan & Erickson, Merle & Frank, Mary Margaret & Banyi, Monica, 2003. "Are shareholder dividend taxes on corporate retained earnings impounded in equity prices? Additional evidence and analysis," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 179-200, June.
    6. Green, Richard C. & Hollifield, Burton, 2003. "The personal-tax advantages of equity," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(2), pages 175-216, February.
    7. Harris, Trevor S. & Hubbard, R. Glenn & Kemsley, Deen, 2001. "The share price effects of dividend taxes and tax imputation credits," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 79(3), pages 569-596, March.
    8. Shoven, John B. & Sialm, Clemens, 2004. "Asset location in tax-deferred and conventional savings accounts," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(1-2), pages 23-38, January.
    9. repec:bla:jfinan:v:59:y:2004:i:3:p:999-1037 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Martin Feldstein & Joel Slemrod & Shlomo Yitzhaki, 1980. "The Effects of Taxation on the Selling of Corporate Stock and the Realization of Capital Gains," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 94(4), pages 777-791.
    11. Constantinides, George M., 1984. "Optimal stock trading with personal taxes : Implications for prices and the abnormal January returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 13(1), pages 65-89, March.
    12. Miller, Merton H. & Scholes, Myron S., 1978. "Dividends and taxes," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 6(4), pages 333-364, December.
    13. Raj Chetty & Emmanuel Saez, 2005. "Dividend Taxes and Corporate Behavior: Evidence from the 2003 Dividend Tax Cut," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 120(3), pages 791-833.
    14. Black, Fischer & Scholes, Myron, 1974. "The effects of dividend yield and dividend policy on common stock prices and returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 1-22, May.
    15. Keim, Donald B., 1985. "Dividend yields and stock returns: Implications of abnormal January returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 473-489, September.
    16. Roger H. Gordon & David F. Bradford, 1980. "Taxation and the Stock Market Valuation of Capital Gains and Dividends: Theory and Empirical Results," NBER Chapters, in: Econometric Studies in Public Finance, pages 109-136, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    17. Alan J. Auerbach & Kevin A. Hassett, 2005. "The 2003 Dividend Tax Cuts and the Value of the Firm: An Event Study," NBER Working Papers 11449, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    18. Eades, Kenneth M. & Hess, Patrick J. & Kim, E. Han, 1984. "On interpreting security returns during the ex-dividend period," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 13(1), pages 3-34, March.
    19. Mankiw, N. Gregory & Zeldes, Stephen P., 1991. "The consumption of stockholders and nonstockholders," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 97-112, March.
    20. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 1993. "Common risk factors in the returns on stocks and bonds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 3-56, February.
    21. Frank, Murray & Jagannathan, Ravi, 1998. "Why do stock prices drop by less than the value of the dividend? Evidence from a country without taxes," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(2), pages 161-188, February.
    22. John R. Graham & Alok Kumar, 2006. "Do Dividend Clienteles Exist? Evidence on Dividend Preferences of Retail Investors," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 61(3), pages 1305-1336, June.
    23. Blume, Marshall E, 1980. "Stock Returns and Dividend Yields: Some More Evidence," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 62(4), pages 567-577, November.
    24. Zoran Ivković & James Poterba & Scott Weisbenner, 2005. "Tax-Motivated Trading by Individual Investors," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(5), pages 1605-1630, December.
    25. Auerbach,Alan J. & Hines, Jr.,James R. & Slemrod,Joel (ed.), 2007. "Taxing Corporate Income in the 21st Century," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521870221, September.
    26. Newey, Whitney & West, Kenneth, 2014. "A simple, positive semi-definite, heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation consistent covariance matrix," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 33(1), pages 125-132.
    27. Bossaerts, Peter & Dammon, Robert M, 1994. "Tax-Induced Intertemporal Restrictions on Security Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 49(4), pages 1347-1371, September.
    28. Stephen Wright, 2004. "Measures Of Stock Market Value And Returns For The U.S. Nonfinancial Corporate Sector, 1900–2002," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 50(4), pages 561-584, December.
    29. Christie, William G., 1990. "Dividend yield and expected returns *1: The zero-dividend puzzle," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(1-2), pages 95-125.
    30. Jennifer Huang, 2008. "Taxable and Tax-Deferred Investing: A Tax-Arbitrage Approach," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 21(5), pages 2173-2207, September.
    31. Auerbach, Alan J., 1979. "Share valuation and corporate equity policy," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 11(3), pages 291-305, June.
    32. Joan Farre-Mensa & Roni Michaely & Martin Schmalz, 2014. "Payout Policy," Annual Review of Financial Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 6(1), pages 75-134, December.
    33. Brav, Alon & Graham, John R. & Harvey, Campbell R. & Michaely, Roni, 2005. "Payout policy in the 21st century," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(3), pages 483-527, September.
    34. Ellen R. McGrattan & Edward C. Prescott, 2005. "Taxes, Regulations, and the Value of U.S. and U.K. Corporations," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 72(3), pages 767-796.
    35. Li Jin, 2006. "Capital Gains Tax Overhang and Price Pressure," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 61(3), pages 1399-1431, June.
    36. Carhart, Mark M, 1997. "On Persistence in Mutual Fund Performance," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(1), pages 57-82, March.
    37. James M. Poterba, 1987. "Tax Policy and Corporate Saving," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 18(2), pages 455-516.
    38. John R. Graham & Roni Michaely & Michael R. Roberts, 2003. "Do Price Discreteness and Transactions Costs Affect Stock Returns? Comparing Ex‐Dividend Pricing before and after Decimalization," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 58(6), pages 2611-2636, December.
    39. Yaniv Grinstein & Roni Michaely, 2005. "Institutional Holdings and Payout Policy," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 60(3), pages 1389-1426, June.
    40. Poterba, James M., 1987. "How burdensome are capital gains taxes?: Evidence from the United States," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 157-172, July.
    41. Pastor, Lubos & Stambaugh, Robert F., 2003. "Liquidity Risk and Expected Stock Returns," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 111(3), pages 642-685, June.
    42. Mihir A. Desai & Li Jin, 2007. "Institutional Tax Clienteles and Payout Policy," NBER Working Papers 13283, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    43. Franklin Allen & Antonio E. Bernardo & Ivo Welch, 2000. "A Theory of Dividends Based on Tax Clienteles," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(6), pages 2499-2536, December.
    44. Dahlquist, Magnus & Robertsson, Göran & Rydqvist, Kristian, 2007. "Direct Evidence of Dividend Tax Clienteles," SIFR Research Report Series 51, Institute for Financial Research.
    45. Litzenberger, Robert H & Ramaswamy, Krishna, 1982. "The Effects of Dividends on Common Stock Prices: Tax Effects or Information Effects?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 37(2), pages 429-443, May.
    46. Lang, Mark H. & Shackelford, Douglas A., 2000. "Capitalization of capital gains taxes: evidence from stock price reactions to the 1997 rate reduction," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(1), pages 69-85, April.
    47. Dammon, Robert M & Spatt, Chester S & Zhang, Harold H, 2001. "Optimal Consumption and Investment with Capital Gains Taxes," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 14(3), pages 583-616.
    48. repec:bla:jfinan:v:53:y:1998:i:6:p:2029-2057 is not listed on IDEAS
    49. repec:bla:jfinan:v:53:y:1998:i:3:p:819-843 is not listed on IDEAS
    50. Clemens Sialm, 2005. "Tax Changes and Asset Pricing: Time-Series Evidence," NBER Working Papers 11756, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    51. Kalay, Avner, 1982. "The Ex-Dividend Pay Behavior of Stock Prices: A Re-Examination of the Clientele Effect," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 37(4), pages 1059-1070, September.
    52. Avner Kalay & Roni Michaely, 2000. "Dividends and Taxes: A Re-Examination," Financial Management, Financial Management Association, vol. 29(2), Summer.
    53. Annette Vissing-Jorgensen, 2002. "Limited Asset Market Participation and the Elasticity of Intertemporal Substitution," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 110(4), pages 825-853, August.
    54. Merton H. Miller & Franco Modigliani, 1961. "Dividend Policy, Growth, and the Valuation of Shares," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 34, pages 411-411.
    55. John R. Graham, 2003. "Taxes and Corporate Finance: A Review," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 16(4), pages 1075-1129.
    56. Jegadeesh, Narasimhan & Titman, Sheridan, 1993. "Returns to Buying Winners and Selling Losers: Implications for Stock Market Efficiency," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(1), pages 65-91, March.
    57. Miller, Merton H & Scholes, Myron S, 1982. "Dividends and Taxes: Some Empirical Evidence," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 90(6), pages 1118-1141, December.
    58. Poterba, James M & Summers, Lawrence H, 1984. "New Evidence that Taxes Affect the Valuation of Dividends," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 39(5), pages 1397-1415, December.
    59. Litzenberger, Robert H. & Ramaswamy, Krishna, 1979. "The effect of personal taxes and dividends on capital asset prices : Theory and empirical evidence," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 7(2), pages 163-195, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Clemens Sialm, 2006. "Investment Taxes and Equity Returns," NBER Working Papers 12146, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Hanlon, Michelle & Heitzman, Shane, 2010. "A review of tax research," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(2-3), pages 127-178, December.
    3. Clemens Sialm, 2005. "Tax Changes and Asset Pricing: Time-Series Evidence," NBER Working Papers 11756, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Hartzmark, Samuel M. & Solomon, David H., 2013. "The dividend month premium," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 109(3), pages 640-660.
    5. William M. Getry & Deen Kemsley & Christopher J. Mayer, 2003. "Dividend Taxes and Share Prices: Evidence from Real Estate Investment Trusts," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 58(1), pages 261-282, February.
    6. Trevor S. Harris & R. Glenn Hubbard & Deen Kemsley, 1999. "The Share Price Effects of Dividend Taxes and Tax Imputation Credits," NBER Working Papers 7445, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Poterba, James M., 2002. "Taxation, risk-taking, and household portfolio behavior," Handbook of Public Economics, in: A. J. Auerbach & M. Feldstein (ed.), Handbook of Public Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 17, pages 1109-1171, Elsevier.
    8. Frankfurter, George M. & Wood, Bob Jr., 2002. "Dividend policy theories and their empirical tests," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 11(2), pages 111-138.
    9. Dahlquist, Magnus & Robertsson, Göran & Rydqvist, Kristian, 2014. "Direct evidence of dividend tax clienteles," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 1-12.
    10. Fuller, Kathleen P. & Goldstein, Michael A., 2011. "Do dividends matter more in declining markets?," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 457-473, June.
    11. Harris, Trevor S. & Hubbard, R. Glenn & Kemsley, Deen, 2001. "The share price effects of dividend taxes and tax imputation credits," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 79(3), pages 569-596, March.
    12. Bell, L. & Jenkinson, T., 2000. "New Evidence of the Impact of Dividend Taxation and on the Identity of the Marginal Investor," Economics Series Working Papers 9924, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    13. Dahlquist, Magnus & Robertsson, Göran & Rydqvist, Kristian, 2007. "Direct Evidence of Dividend Tax Clienteles," SIFR Research Report Series 51, Institute for Financial Research.
    14. Rydqvist, Kristian & Dahlquist, Magnus & Robertsson, Göran, 2006. "Direct Evidence of Dividend Tax Clienteles," CEPR Discussion Papers 6005, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    15. Randall Morck, 2003. "Why Some Double Taxation Might Make Sense: The Special Case of Inter-corporate Dividends," NBER Working Papers 9651, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    16. Philip Brown & Alex Clarke, 1993. "The Ex-Dividend Day Behaviour of Australian Share Prices Before and After Dividend Imputation," Australian Journal of Management, Australian School of Business, vol. 18(1), pages 1-40, June.
    17. Hanlon, Michelle & Myers, James N. & Shevlin, Terry, 2003. "Dividend taxes and firm valuation:: a re-examination," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 119-153, June.
    18. Allaudeen Hameed & Jing Xie & Yuxiang Zhong, 2024. "Preferences for dividends and stock returns around the world," Working Papers 202405, University of Macau, Faculty of Business Administration.
    19. Fazakas, Gergely & Kosárka, Judit, 2008. "Osztalékpolitikai elméletek [Dividend policy theories]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(9), pages 782-806.
    20. Dan Dhaliwal & Linda Krull & Oliver Zhen Li & William Moser, 2005. "Dividend Taxes and Implied Cost of Equity Capital," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 43(5), pages 675-708, December.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • H22 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Incidence
    • H24 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Personal Income and Other Nonbusiness Taxes and Subsidies
    • N21 - Economic History - - Financial Markets and Institutions - - - U.S.; Canada: Pre-1913
    • N22 - Economic History - - Financial Markets and Institutions - - - U.S.; Canada: 1913-

    Lists

    This item is featured on the following reading lists, Wikipedia, or ReplicationWiki pages:
    1. Tax Changes and Asset Pricing (AER 2009) in ReplicationWiki

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:aea:aecrev:v:99:y:2009:i:4:p:1356-83. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Michael P. Albert (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/aeaaaea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.