IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

Optimal Stock Trading with Personal Taxes: Implications for Prices and the Abnormal January Returns

  • George M. Constantinides

The tax law confers upon the investor a timing option--to realize capital losses and defer capital gains. With the tax rate on long term capital gains and losses being about half the short term rate, the tax law provides a second timing option--to realize capital losses short term and realize capital gains long term, if at all. Our theory and simulation with actual stock prices over the 1962-1977 period establish that the second timing option is extremely valuable: Taxable investors should realize their long term capital gains in high variance stocks and repurchase the same or similar stock, in order to reestablish the short-term status and realize potential future losses short term.Tax trading does not explain the positive abnormal returns of small firms. In the presence of transactions costs, tax trading predicts that the volumeof tax-loss selling increases from January to December and ceases inthe first few days of January. The trading volume seasonal maps into a stockprice seasonal only if tax-loss sellers are assumed irrational or ignorant of the price seasonality.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://www.nber.org/papers/w1176.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 1176.

as
in new window

Length:
Date of creation: Aug 1983
Date of revision:
Publication status: published as Constantinides, George M. "Optimal Stock Trading with Personal Taxes: Implications for Prices and the Abnormal January Returns." Journal of Financial Economics, Vol. 13, No. 1, (1984), pp. 65-89.
Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:1176
Note: ME PE
Contact details of provider: Postal: National Bureau of Economic Research, 1050 Massachusetts Avenue Cambridge, MA 02138, U.S.A.
Phone: 617-868-3900
Web page: http://www.nber.org
Email:


More information through EDIRC

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Keim, Donald B., 1983. "Size-related anomalies and stock return seasonality : Further empirical evidence," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 13-32, June.
  2. Black, Fischer & Scholes, Myron S, 1973. "The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 637-54, May-June.
  3. Sidney B. Wachtel, 1942. "Certain Observations on Seasonal Movements in Stock Prices," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 15, pages 184.
  4. Stoll, Hans R. & Whaley, Robert E., 1983. "Transaction costs and the small firm effect," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 57-79, June.
  5. Branch, Ben, 1977. "A Tax Loss Trading Rule," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 50(2), pages 198-207, April.
  6. Mustafa N. Gultekin & Bulent N. Gultekin, . "Stock Market Seasonality and End of the Tax Year Effect," Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers 10-82, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research.
  7. Robert C. Merton, 1973. "Theory of Rational Option Pricing," Bell Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 4(1), pages 141-183, Spring.
  8. Brown, Philip & Kleidon, Allan W. & Marsh, Terry A., 1983. "New evidence on the nature of size-related anomalies in stock prices," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 33-56, June.
  9. Reinganum, Marc R., 1981. "Misspecification of capital asset pricing : Empirical anomalies based on earnings' yields and market values," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 9(1), pages 19-46, March.
  10. Merton, Robert C, 1973. "An Intertemporal Capital Asset Pricing Model," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 41(5), pages 867-87, September.
  11. Constantinides, George M, 1983. "Capital Market Equilibrium with Personal Tax," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 51(3), pages 611-36, May.
  12. Constantinides, George M & Scholes, Myron S, 1980. " Optimal Liquidation of Assets in the Presence of Personal Taxes: Implications for Asset Pricing," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 35(2), pages 439-49, May.
  13. Banz, Rolf W., 1981. "The relationship between return and market value of common stocks," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 9(1), pages 3-18, March.
  14. Dyl, Edward A, 1977. "Capital Gains Taxation and Year-End Stock Market Behavior," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 32(1), pages 165-75, March.
  15. Brown, Philip & Keim, Donald B. & Kleidon, Allan W. & Marsh, Terry A., 1983. "Stock return seasonalities and the tax-loss selling hypothesis : Analysis of the arguments and Australian evidence," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 105-127, June.
  16. Rozeff, Michael S. & Kinney, William Jr., 1976. "Capital market seasonality: The case of stock returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 3(4), pages 379-402, October.
  17. Chen, Nai-fu, 1983. " Some Empirical Tests of the Theory of Arbitrage Pricing," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 38(5), pages 1393-1414, December.
  18. Cox, John C. & Ross, Stephen A. & Rubinstein, Mark, 1979. "Option pricing: A simplified approach," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 7(3), pages 229-263, September.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:1176. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ()

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.