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Political Uncertainty and Risk Premia

  • Pástor, Luboš
  • Veronesi, Pietro

We study the pricing of political uncertainty in a general equilibrium model of government policy choice. We find that political uncertainty commands a risk premium whose magnitude is larger in poorer economic conditions. Political uncertainty reduces the value of the implicit put protection that the government provides to the market. It also makes stocks more volatile and more correlated when the economy is weak. In addition, we find that government policies cannot be judged by the stock market response to their announcement. Announcements of deeper reforms tend to elicit less favorable stock market reactions.

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Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 8601.

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Date of creation: Oct 2011
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Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:8601
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  30. George Bittlingmayer, 1998. "Output, Stock Volatility, and Political Uncertainty in a Natural Experiment: Germany, 1880-1940," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 53(6), pages 2243-2257, December.
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