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Political Uncertainty and Risk Premia

  • Pástor, Luboš
  • Veronesi, Pietro

We study the pricing of political uncertainty in a general equilibrium model of government policy choice. We find that political uncertainty commands a risk premium whose magnitude is larger in poorer economic conditions. Political uncertainty reduces the value of the implicit put protection that the government provides to the market. It also makes stocks more volatile and more correlated when the economy is weak. In addition, we find that government policies cannot be judged by the stock market response to their announcement. Announcements of deeper reforms tend to elicit less favorable stock market reactions.

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Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 8601.

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Date of creation: Oct 2011
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Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:8601
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  1. Hermes, Niels & Lensink, Robert, 2001. "Capital flight and the uncertainty of government policies," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 71(3), pages 377-381, June.
  2. Pastor, Lubos & Veronesi, Pietro, 2006. "Was there a Nasdaq bubble in the late 1990s?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(1), pages 61-100, July.
  3. Alberto Alesina & Silvia Ardagna & Francesco Trebbi, 2006. "Who Adjusts and When? On the Political Economy of Reforms," NBER Working Papers 12049, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Alberto Alesina & Dani Rodrik, 1991. "Distributive Politics and Economic Growth," NBER Working Papers 3668, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Persson, Torsten & Tabellini, Guido, 1994. "Is Inequality Harmful for Growth?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(3), pages 600-621, June.
  6. Grossman, G.M. & Helpman, E., 1992. "Protection for Sale," Papers 162, Princeton, Woodrow Wilson School - Public and International Affairs.
  7. Francisco Gomes & Alexander Michaelides & Valery Polkovnichenko, 2013. "Fiscal Policy and Asset Prices with Incomplete Markets," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 26(2), pages 531-566.
  8. George Bittlingmayer, 1998. "Output, Stock Volatility, and Political Uncertainty in a Natural Experiment: Germany, 1880-1940," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 53(6), pages 2243-2257, December.
  9. Jinliang Li & Jeffery A. Born, 2006. "Presidential Election Uncertainty And Common Stock Returns In The United States," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 29(4), pages 609-622.
  10. Laurence J. Kotlikoff & Francisco J. Gomes & Luis M. Viceira, 2010. "The Excess Burden of Government Indecision," Boston University - Department of Economics - Working Papers Series WP2010-014, Boston University - Department of Economics.
  11. Leonid Kogan & Stephen Ross, 2004. "The Price Impact and Survival of Irrational Traders," 2004 Meeting Papers 35, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  12. Rodrik, Dani, 1991. "Policy uncertainty and private investment in developing countries," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 229-242, October.
  13. M. Max Croce & Howard Kung & Thien T. Nguyen & Lukas Schmid, 2012. "Fiscal Policies and Asset Prices," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 25(9), pages 2635-2672.
  14. Alberto Alesina & Silvia Ardagna & Francesco Trebbi, 2006. "Who Adjusts and When?The Political Economy of Reforms," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 53(si), pages 1.
  15. Pástor, Luboš & Veronesi, Pietro, 2010. "Uncertainty about Government Policy and Stock Prices," CEPR Discussion Papers 7897, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  16. Hassett, Kevin A & Metcalf, Gilbert E, 1999. "Investment with Uncertain Tax Policy: Does Random Tax Policy Discourage Investment?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 109(457), pages 372-93, July.
  17. Maria Boutchkova & Hitesh Doshi & Art Durnev & Alexander Molchanov, 2012. "Precarious Politics and Return Volatility," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 25(4), pages 1111-1154.
  18. Clemens Sialm, 2002. "Stochastic Taxation and Asset Pricing in Dynamic General Equilibrium," NBER Working Papers 9301, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  19. Bruno Strulovici, 2008. "Learning while voting: determinants of collective experimentation," Economics Papers 2008-W08, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
  20. Croce, Mariano M. & Nguyen, Thien T. & Schmid, Lukas, 2012. "The market price of fiscal uncertainty," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(5), pages 401-416.
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  22. Belo, Frederico & Gala, Vito D. & Li, Jun, 2013. "Government spending, political cycles, and the cross section of stock returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 107(2), pages 305-324.
  23. Allan Drazen & William Easterly, 2001. "Do Crises Induce Reform? Simple Empirical Tests of Conventional Wisdom," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(2), pages 129-157, 07.
  24. Thien Nguyen & Lukas Schmid & Howard Kung & Mariano Croce, 2012. "Fiscal Policies and Asset Prices," 2012 Meeting Papers 565, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  25. Clemens Sialm, 2009. "Tax Changes and Asset Pricing," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(4), pages 1356-83, September.
  26. Ellen R. McGrattan & Edward C. Prescott, 2005. "Taxes, regulations, and the value of U.S. and U.K. corporations," Staff Report 309, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  27. repec:cup:cbooks:9780521659123 is not listed on IDEAS
  28. Pantzalis, Christos & Stangeland, David A. & Turtle, Harry J., 2000. "Political elections and the resolution of uncertainty: The international evidence," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(10), pages 1575-1604, October.
  29. Cuoco, Domenico & Kaniel, Ron, 2011. "Equilibrium prices in the presence of delegated portfolio management," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 101(2), pages 264-296, August.
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