IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/nbr/nberwo/2999.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Policy Uncertainty and Private Investment in Developing Countries

Author

Listed:
  • Dani Rodrik

Abstract

A resurgence in private investment is a necessary ingredient of a sustainable recovery in heavily-indebted developing countries. Policy reforms in these countries involve a serious dilemma, especially when they include structural and microeconomic features. On the one hand, entrepreneurs, workers, and farmers must respond to the signals generated by the reform for the new policies to be successful. On the other hand, rational behavior by the private sector calls for withholding investment until much of the residual uncertainty regarding the eventual success of the reform is eliminated. This paper shows that even moderate amounts of policy uncertainty can act as a hefty tax on investment, and that otherwise sensible reforms may prove damaging if they induce doubts as to their permanence. A simple model is developed to link policy uncertainty to the private investment response.

Suggested Citation

  • Dani Rodrik, 1989. "Policy Uncertainty and Private Investment in Developing Countries," NBER Working Papers 2999, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:2999
    Note: ITI IFM
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.nber.org/papers/w2999.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Robert J. Barro & David B. Gordon, 2019. "A Positive Theory of Monetary Policy in a Natural Rate Model," Credit and Capital Markets, Credit and Capital Markets, vol. 52(4), pages 505-525.
    2. Rudiger Dornbusch & Sebastian Edwards, 1991. "The Macroeconomics of Populism in Latin America," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number dorn91-1, May.
    3. Rudiger Dornbusch, 1991. "Credibility and Stabilization," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 106(3), pages 837-850.
    4. Wheeler, David, 1984. "Sources of stagnation in sub-Saharan Africa," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 1-23, January.
    5. Persson, Torsten & van Wijnbergen, Sweder, 1993. "Signalling, Wage Controls and Monetary Disinflation Policy," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 103(416), pages 79-97, January.
    6. Pindyck, Robert S, 1988. "Irreversible Investment, Capacity Choice, and the Value of the Firm," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 78(5), pages 969-985, December.
    7. Glezakos, Constantine, 1973. "Export Instability and Economic Growth: A Statistical Verification," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 21(4), pages 670-678, Part I Ju.
    8. Sebastian Edwards, 1989. "Real Exchange Rates in the Developing Countries: Concepts and Measure- ment," NBER Working Papers 2950, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Froot, Kenneth A., 1988. "Credibility, real interest rates, and the optimal speed of trade liberalization," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(1-2), pages 71-93, August.
    10. Paul R. Krugman, 1988. "Deindustrialization, Reindustrialization, and the Real Exchange Rate," NBER Working Papers 2586, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Robert McDonald & Daniel Siegel, 1986. "The Value of Waiting to Invest," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 101(4), pages 707-727.
    12. Sule Ozler & James Harrigan, 1988. "Export Instability and Growth," UCLA Economics Working Papers 486, UCLA Department of Economics.
    13. Kormendi, Roger C. & Meguire, Philip G., 1985. "Macroeconomic determinants of growth: Cross-country evidence," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 141-163, September.
    14. Rodrik, Dani, 1990. "How should structural adjustment programs be designed?," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 18(7), pages 933-947, July.
    15. Staiger, Robert W & Tabellini, Guido, 1987. "Discretionary Trade Policy and Excessive Protection," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 77(5), pages 823-837, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Rodrik, Dani, 1989. "Promises, Promises: Credible Policy Reform via Signalling," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 99(397), pages 756-772, September.
    2. Corbo, Vittorio, 1991. "Report on adjustment lending II : lessons forEastern Europe," Policy Research Working Paper Series 693, The World Bank.
    3. Robert S. Pindyck & Andrés Solimano, 1993. "Economic Instability and Aggregate Investment," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1993, Volume 8, pages 259-318, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Paul A. de Hek, 2002. "Endogenous Technological Change under Uncertainty," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 02-047/2, Tinbergen Institute, revised 08 Nov 2002.
    5. Helen Weeds, 2002. "Strategic Delay in a Real Options Model of R&D Competition," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 69(3), pages 729-747.
    6. Goodness C. Aye & Rangan Gupta, 2019. "Macroeconomic Uncertainty And The Comovement In Buying Versus Renting In The Usa," International Association of Decision Sciences, Asia University, Taiwan, vol. 23(3), pages 93-121, September.
    7. Turnovsky, Stephen J. & Chattopadhyay, Pradip, 2003. "Volatility and growth in developing economies: some numerical results and empirical evidence," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(2), pages 267-295, March.
    8. Laetitia Lepetit & Clovis Rugemintwari & Frank Strobel, 2015. "Monetary, Financial and Fiscal Stability in the East African Community: Ready for a Monetary Union?," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 38(8), pages 1179-1204, August.
    9. Miao, Jianjun & Wang, Neng, 2007. "Investment, consumption, and hedging under incomplete markets," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(3), pages 608-642, December.
    10. Tsekrekos, Andrianos E., 2010. "The effect of mean reversion on entry and exit decisions under uncertainty," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 725-742, April.
    11. Belke, Ansgar & Göcke, Matthias, 2019. "Interest rate hysteresis in macroeconomic investment under uncertainty," Ruhr Economic Papers 801, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
    12. Saint-Paul, Gilles, 2007. "Making sense of Bolkestein-bashing: Trade liberalization under segmented labor markets," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 73(1), pages 152-174, September.
    13. Tiziano De Angelis & Salvatore Federico & Giorgio Ferrari, 2014. "Optimal Boundary Surface for Irreversible Investment with Stochastic Costs," Papers 1406.4297, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2017.
    14. Kovenock, Dan & Phillips, Gordon M, 1997. "Capital Structure and Product Market Behavior: An Examination of Plant Exit and Investment Decisions," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 10(3), pages 767-803.
    15. Anand, Kartik & Gai, Prasanna & König, Philipp Johann, 2020. "Leaping into the dark: A theory of policy gambles," Discussion Papers 07/2020, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    16. Conley, John P. & Maloney, William F., 1995. "Optimal sequencing of credible reforms with uncertain outcomes," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(1), pages 151-166, October.
    17. Bernard Dumas, "undated". "Perishable Investment and Hysteresis in Capital Formation," Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers 44-88, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research.
    18. Wu, Ji & Yao, Yao & Chen, Minghua & Jeon, Bang Nam, 2020. "Economic uncertainty and bank risk: Evidence from emerging economies," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    19. Alain Bensoussan & Benoît Chevalier-Roignant, 2019. "Sequential Capacity Expansion Options," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 67(1), pages 33-57, January.
    20. José Balibrea-Iniesta, 2020. "Economic Analysis of Renewable Energy Regulation in France: A Case Study for Photovoltaic Plants Based on Real Options," Energies, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 13(11), pages 1-19, June.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:2999. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: . General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/nberrus.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/nberrus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.