Policy Uncertainty and Private Investment in Developing Countries
A resurgence in private investment is a necessary ingredient of a sustainable recovery in heavily-indebted developing countries. Policy reforms in these countries involve a serious dilemma, especially when they include structural and microeconomic features. On the one hand, entrepreneurs, workers, and farmers must respond to the signals generated by the reform for the new policies to be successful. On the other hand, rational behavior by the private sector calls for withholding investment until much of the residual uncertainty regarding the eventual success of the reform is eliminated. This paper shows that even moderate amounts of policy uncertainty can act as a hefty tax on investment, and that otherwise sensible reforms may prove damaging if they induce doubts as to their permanence. A simple model is developed to link policy uncertainty to the private investment response.
|Date of creation:||Jun 1989|
|Date of revision:|
|Publication status:||published as Journal of Development Economics, November 1991.|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Web page: http://www.nber.org
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Kormendi, Roger C. & Meguire, Philip G., 1985. "Macroeconomic determinants of growth: Cross-country evidence," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 141-163, September.
- Staiger, Robert W & Tabellini, Guido, 1987. "Discretionary Trade Policy and Excessive Protection," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 77(5), pages 823-37, December.
- Glezakos, Constantine, 1973. "Export Instability and Economic Growth: A Statistical Verification," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 21(4), pages 670-78, Part I Ju.
- Sebastian Edwards, 1989. "Real Exchange Rates in the Developing Countries: Concepts and Measure- ment," NBER Working Papers 2950, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Barro, Robert J & Gordon, David B, 1983.
"A Positive Theory of Monetary Policy in a Natural Rate Model,"
Journal of Political Economy,
University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(4), pages 589-610, August.
- Robert J. Barro & David B. Gordon, 1981. "A Positive Theory of Monetary Policy in a Natural-Rate Model," NBER Working Papers 0807, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Dornbusch, Rudiger, 1991.
"Credibility and Stabilization,"
The Quarterly Journal of Economics,
MIT Press, vol. 106(3), pages 837-50, August.
- Pindyck, Robert S., 1986.
"Irreversible investment, capacity choice, and the value of the firm,"
1802-86., Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Sloan School of Management.
- Pindyck, Robert S, 1988. "Irreversible Investment, Capacity Choice, and the Value of the Firm," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 78(5), pages 969-85, December.
- Robert S. Pindyck, 1986. "Irreversible Investment, Capacity Choice, and the Value of the Firm," NBER Working Papers 1980, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Persson, Torsten & van Wijnbergen, Sweder, 1993.
"Signalling, Wage Controls and Monetary Disinflation Policy,"
Royal Economic Society, vol. 103(416), pages 79-97, January.
- Torsten Persson & Sweder van Wijnbergen, 1989. "Signalling, Wage Controls and Monetary Disinflation Policy," NBER Working Papers 2939, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Rodrik, Dani, 1990. "How should structural adjustment programs be designed?," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 18(7), pages 933-947, July.
- McDonald, Robert & Siegel, Daniel, 1986. "The Value of Waiting to Invest," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 101(4), pages 707-27, November.
- Froot, Kenneth A., 1988.
"Credibility, real interest rates, and the optimal speed of trade liberalization,"
Journal of International Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 25(1-2), pages 71-93, August.
- Kenneth A. Froot, 1987. "Credibility, Real Interest Rates, and the Optimal Speed of Trade Liberalization," NBER Working Papers 2358, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Sule Ozler & James Harrigan, 1988. "Export Instability and Growth," UCLA Economics Working Papers 486, UCLA Department of Economics.
- Rudiger Dornbusch & Sebastian Edwards, 1991.
"The Macroeconomics of Populism in Latin America,"
National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number dorn91-1.
- Wheeler, David, 1984. "Sources of stagnation in sub-Saharan Africa," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 1-23, January.
- Paul R. Krugman, 1988. "Deindustrialization, Reindustrialization, and the Real Exchange Rate," NBER Working Papers 2586, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:2999. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ()
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.