IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/wbk/wbrwps/316.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The macroeconomics of populism in Latin America

Author

Listed:
  • Dornbusch, Rudiger
  • Edwards, Sebastian

Abstract

By populism, this paper refers to an economic approach that emphasizes growth and income redistribution and deemphasizes the risks of inflation and deficit finance, external constraints and the reaction of economic agents to aggressive nonmarket policies. It analyzes two instances of populism - Chile under Allende and Peru under Garcia. These experiences are described in detail, not as a righteous assertion of conservative economics, but as a warning that populist policies ultimately fail, and always at a frightening cost to the groups they were supposed to benefit. This paper explores the question of whether some variant of populist policies could succeed. It suggests that populist policies could succeed if they stayed clear of foreign exchange constraints, emphasized reactivation for a brief initial period, and then shifted to growth policies. Most important, expansionary policies must reflect awareness of capacity constraints and must rely for financing on an extremely orthodox fiscal policy and rigorous tax adminsitration. The paper concludes by warning that IMF-style policies, unconcerned with growth of social progress, may establish financial stability in the short run, but inevitably open the door to yet another round of destructive reaction in the form of populist policies.

Suggested Citation

  • Dornbusch, Rudiger & Edwards, Sebastian, 1989. "The macroeconomics of populism in Latin America," Policy Research Working Paper Series 316, The World Bank.
  • Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:316
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www-wds.worldbank.org/external/default/WDSContentServer/WDSP/IB/1989/12/01/000009265_3960928145327/Rendered/PDF/multi0page.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Thorp, Rosemary, 1987. "Trends and cycles in the Peruvian economy," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(1-2), pages 355-374, October.
    2. Dornbusch, Rudiger, 1982. "Stabilization policies in developing countries: What have we learned?," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 10(9), pages 701-708, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Grafe, Clemens & Wyplosz, Charles, 1997. "The Real Exchange Rate in Transition Economies," CEPR Discussion Papers 1773, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    2. Sergio Rebelo & Carlos A. Végh, 1995. "Real Effects of Exchange-Rate-Based Stabilization: An Analysis of Competing Theories," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1995, Volume 10, pages 125-188, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Helpman, Elhanan & Leiderman, Leonardo, 1988. "Stabilization in high inflation countries: Analytical foundations and recent experience," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 9-84, January.
    4. David M. Gould, 1996. "Does the choice of nominal anchor matter?," Working Papers 9611, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    5. Jonathan Ikoba & Akorlie A. Nyatepe-Coo & Oluwole Owoye, 1996. "The Effects of Domestic Policies and External Factors on the Real Exchange Rate and Economic Performance in Sub-Saharan Africa," The American Economist, Sage Publications, vol. 40(1), pages 92-103, March.
    6. Oya Celasun, 2003. "Sticky Inflation and the Real Effects of Exchange Rate Based Stabilization," IMF Working Papers 2003/151, International Monetary Fund.
    7. Lahiri, Amartya, 2001. "Exchange rate based stabilizations under real frictions: The role of endogenous labor supply," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 25(8), pages 1157-1177, August.
    8. Buiter, Willem H., 1986. "Macroeconomic Responses by Developing Countries to Changes in External Economic Conditions," CEPR Discussion Papers 93, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    9. repec:ilo:ilowps:293287 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Celasun, Oya, 2006. "Sticky inflation and the real effects of exchange rate-based stabilization," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(1), pages 115-139, September.
    11. Reinhart, Carmen & Vegh, Carlos, 1994. "Inflation stabilization in chronic inflation countries: The empirical evidence," MPRA Paper 13689, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Stanley Fischer & Ratna Sahay & Carlos A. Végh, 2002. "Modern Hyper- and High Inflations," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 40(3), pages 837-880, September.
    13. Julio A. Santaella & Abraham E. Vela, 2005. "The 1987 Mexican Disinflation Program: An Exchange-rate-based Stabilization?," Economía Mexicana NUEVA ÉPOCA, CIDE, División de Economía, vol. 0(1), pages 5-40, January-J.
    14. Calvo, Guillermo A. & Vegh, Carlos A., 1994. "Stabilization dynamics and backward-looking contracts," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(1), pages 59-84, February.
    15. Ajit Singh, 1986. "Tanzania and the IMF: The Analytics of Alternative Adjustment Programmes," Development and Change, International Institute of Social Studies, vol. 17(3), pages 425-454, July.
    16. Thomas, J. J., 1993. "Links between structural adjustment and poverty: causal or remedial?," ILO Working Papers 992932873402676, International Labour Organization.
    17. Fugazza, Marco & Fiess, Norbert M. & Maloney, William, 2002. "Exchange rate appreciations, labor market rigidities, and informality," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2771, The World Bank.
    18. Héctor A. Valle S., 2003. "Pronósticos de inflación para Guatemala hechos con modelos ARIMA y VAR," Monetaria, CEMLA, vol. 0(4), pages 407-428, octubre-d.
    19. Timothy J Condon, 1986. "Flujo de Comercio y la Política del Tipo de Cambio Reptante: Un Modelo de Predicción Perfecta de Largo Plazo," Latin American Journal of Economics-formerly Cuadernos de Economía, Instituto de Economía. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile., vol. 23(68), pages 25-48.
    20. Josip Tica, 2006. "Exchange Rate Economics in Transition Economies," Zagreb International Review of Economics and Business, Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Zagreb, vol. 9(2), pages 155-170, November.
    21. Jesús R. González García, 2003. "La dinámica del consumo privado en México: un análisis de cointegración con cambios de régimen," Monetaria, CEMLA, vol. 0(4), pages 429-449, octubre-d.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:316. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Roula I. Yazigi (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/dvewbus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.