IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ehl/lserod/20268.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The real exchange rate in transition economies

Author

Listed:
  • Grafe, Clemens
  • Wyplosz, Charles

Abstract

Real exchange rates appear to present a specific behaviour in the early phase of transition: they are largely unaffected by nominal exchange rate movements and exibit trend appreciation. The model presented here describes the transition process as the emergence of two new (traded and non-traded good) sectors and the decline of an inefficient and subsidised state sector. The absence of financial markets means that firms accumulate capital through retained earnings. Labour markets are imperfect giving rise to a wage gap. The model shows that the real exchange rate plays the crucial role of determining real wages. Through real wages it sets the pace for the development of the new sectors as workers are attracted out of the state sector. The link between growth and real appreciation differs from the usual Balassa Samuelson effect. The paper also explores the role of labour market distortions and foreign financing.

Suggested Citation

  • Grafe, Clemens & Wyplosz, Charles, 1998. "The real exchange rate in transition economies," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 20268, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
  • Handle: RePEc:ehl:lserod:20268
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://eprints.lse.ac.uk/20268/
    File Function: Open access version.
    Download Restriction: no

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 1996. "Foundations of International Macroeconomics," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262150476, March.
    2. László Halpern & Charles Wyplosz, 1997. "Equilibrium Exchange Rates in Transition Economies," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 44(4), pages 430-461, December.
    3. Philippe Aghion & Olivier J. Blanchard, 1994. "On the Speed of Transition in Central Europe," NBER Chapters,in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1994, Volume 9, pages 283-330 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. J. Konings & H. Lehmann & M.E. Schaffer, 1996. "Job Creation and Job Destruction in a Transition Economy: Ownership, Firm Size," CERT Discussion Papers 9611, Centre for Economic Reform and Transformation, Heriot Watt University.
    5. Atkeson, Andrew & Kehoe, Patrick J, 1996. "Social Insurance and Transition," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 37(2), pages 377-401, May.
    6. Carlos A. Végh Gramont & Ratna Sahay & Guillermo Calvo, 1995. "Capital Flows in Central and Eastern Europe; Evidence and Policy Options," IMF Working Papers 95/57, International Monetary Fund.
    7. Castanheira, Micael & Roland, Gérard, 1996. "Restructuring and Capital Accumulation in Transition Economies: A General Equilibrium Perspective," CEPR Discussion Papers 1372, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    8. Cornelli, Francesca & Portes, Richard & Schaffer, Mark E, 1996. "The Capital Structure of Firms in Central and Eastern Europe," CEPR Discussion Papers 1392, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    9. Bela Balassa, 1964. "The Purchasing-Power Parity Doctrine: A Reappraisal," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 72, pages 584-584.
    10. Philippe Aghion & Olivier Jean Blanchard, 1994. "On the Speed of Transition Central Europe," NBER Working Papers 4736, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. George A. Akerlof, 1970. "The Market for "Lemons": Quality Uncertainty and the Market Mechanism," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 84(3), pages 488-500.
    12. Burda, Michael C, 1992. "Unemployment, Labour Market Institutions and Structural Change in Eastern Europe," CEPR Discussion Papers 746, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Ca' Zorzi, Michele & De Santis, Roberto A., 2003. "The admission of accession countries to an enlarged monetary union: a tentative assessment," Working Paper Series 216, European Central Bank.
    2. David Begg & Charles Wyplosz, 2001. "Untied Hands are Fundamentally Better," Revue d'Économie Financière, Programme National Persée, vol. 6(1), pages 319-344.
    3. Manzocchi, S. & Ottaviano, G.I.P., 1999. "Outsiders in Economic Integration: the Case of a Transition Economy," Economics Working Papers eco99/32, European University Institute.
    4. Coricelli, Fabrizio & Jazbec, Bostjan, 2004. "Real exchange rate dynamics in transition economies," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 83-100, March.
    5. Francois Gurtner, 2002. "Currency Board and Debt Trap: Evidence from Argentina and Relevance for Estonia," CERT Discussion Papers 0204, Centre for Economic Reform and Transformation, Heriot Watt University.
    6. Lukasz Rawdanowicz, 2003. "The EMU Enlargement and the Choice of the Euro Conversion Rates: Theoretical and Empirical Issues," CASE Network Studies and Analyses 0269, CASE-Center for Social and Economic Research.
    7. Jozef M. Van Brabant, 2001. "Exchange-rate policy in eastern Europe and EU integration," BNL Quarterly Review, Banca Nazionale del Lavoro, vol. 54(218), pages 219-248.
    8. Dumitru, Ionut, 2008. "Efectul Balassa-Samuelson in Romania
      [Balassa-Samuelson effect in Romania]
      ," MPRA Paper 18611, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Jozef M. Van Brabant, 2001. "Exchange-rate policy in eastern Europe and EU integration," Banca Nazionale del Lavoro Quarterly Review, Banca Nazionale del Lavoro, vol. 54(218), pages 219-248.
    10. Fardmanesh, Mohsen & Tan, Li, 2003. "Wage and price control policies in transition economies," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(1), pages 173-200, February.
    11. Andrea Brasili & Bruno Sitzia, 2003. "Risk Related Non Linearities in Exchange Rates: Evidence from a Panel of Central and Eastern European Countries," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 14(2), pages 135-155, April.
    12. Tomasz Mickiewicz & Anna Zalewska, 2002. "Deindustrialisation. Lessons from the StructuralOutcomes of Post-Communist Transition," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series 463, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
    13. Michel Aglietta & Virginie Coudert & Camille Baulant, 1999. "Compétitivité et régime de change en Europe centrale," Revue Économique, Programme National Persée, vol. 50(6), pages 1221-1236.
    14. Leszek Wincenciak, 2008. "Balassa-Samuelson Effect in Poland: Is Real Convergence a Threat to Nominal One?," Ekonomia journal, Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw, vol. 20.
    15. Wyplosz, Charles, 2000. "Ten Years of Transformation: Macroeconomic Lessons," CEPR Discussion Papers 2254, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    16. David Begg & Charles Wyplosz, 2001. "Il est toujours préférable d’avoir les mains libres," Revue d'Économie Financière, Programme National Persée, vol. 6(1), pages 349-380.
    17. Karsten Staehr, 2010. "Income convergence and inflation in Central and Eastern Europe : does the sun always rise in the East," Bank of Estonia Working Papers wp2010-04, Bank of Estonia, revised 22 Mar 2010.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F3 - International Economics - - International Finance
    • G3 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ehl:lserod:20268. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (LSERO Manager). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/lsepsuk.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.