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The international dimension of productivity and demand shocks in the U.S. economy

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  • Giancarlo Corsetti
  • Luca Dedola
  • Sylvain Leduc

Abstract

Identifying productivity and real demand shocks in the US with sign restrictions based on standard theory, we provide evidence on real and financial channels of their international propagation. Productivity gains in US manufacturing have substantial macroeconomic effects, raising US consumption, investment and the terms of trade, relative to the rest of the world, while lowering US net exports. Significant international financial adjustment occurs via a rise in the global value of the US stock market, portfolio shifts in US foreign assets and liabilities, and especially real dollar appreciation. Positive demand shocks to US manufacturing also lead to real appreciation and raise investment, but have otherwise limited effects on trade flows. This evidence suggests a fundamental role of cross-country endogenous demand and wealth movements in shaping international macroeconomic interdependence.

Suggested Citation

  • Giancarlo Corsetti & Luca Dedola & Sylvain Leduc, 2009. "The international dimension of productivity and demand shocks in the U.S. economy," Working Paper Series 2009-09, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedfwp:2009-09
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Giancarlo Corsetti & Luca Dedola & Francesca Viani, 2012. "Traded and Nontraded Goods Prices, and International Risk Sharing: An Empirical Investigation," NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 8(1), pages 403-466.
    2. Alfaro, Laura & Cunat, Alejandro & Fadinger, Harald & Yanping, Liu, 2017. "The real exchange rate, innovation and productivity," Working Papers 17-04, University of Mannheim, Department of Economics.
    3. Engel, Charles & Wang, Jian, 2011. "International trade in durable goods: Understanding volatility, cyclicality, and elasticities," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 83(1), pages 37-52, January.
    4. Buzaushina, Almira & Enders, Zeno & Hoffmann, Mathias, 2014. "International Financial Market Integration, Asset Compositions and the Falling Exchange Rate Pass-Through," Working Papers 0569, University of Heidelberg, Department of Economics.
    5. Sa, Filipa & Wieladek, Tomasz, 2010. "Monetary policy, capital inflows and the housing boom," Bank of England working papers 405, Bank of England.
    6. Rabanal, Pau & Rubio-Ramírez, Juan F., 2015. "Can international macroeconomic models explain low-frequency movements of real exchange rates?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, pages 199-211.
    7. Dumrongrittikul, Taya & Anderson, Heather M., 2016. "How do shocks to domestic factors affect real exchange rates of Asian developing countries?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 119(C), pages 67-85.
    8. Guido Baldi & André Bodmer, 2017. "Intangible investments and international business cycles," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 14(2), pages 211-219, April.
    9. Juvenal, Luciana & Santos Monteiro, Paulo, 2017. "Trade and synchronization in a multi-country economy," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 385-415.
    10. Andrei A. Levchenko & Nitya Pandalai-Nayar, 2015. "TFP, News, and 'Sentiments': The International Transmission of Business Cycles," Working Papers 640, Research Seminar in International Economics, University of Michigan.
    11. Nam, Deokwoo & Wang, Jian, 2015. "The effects of surprise and anticipated technology changes on international relative prices and trade," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 97(1), pages 162-177.
    12. repec:eee:ecolet:v:161:y:2017:i:c:p:66-70 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Jarociński, Marek & Bobeica, Elena, 2017. "Missing disinflation and missing inflation: the puzzles that aren't," Working Paper Series 2000, European Central Bank.
    14. Guerron-Quintana, Pablo A., 2013. "Common and idiosyncratic disturbances in developed small open economies," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(1), pages 33-49.
    15. repec:bla:reviec:v:25:y:2017:i:4:p:856-890 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. Enders, Zeno & Müller, Gernot J. & Scholl, Almuth, 2011. "How do fiscal and technology shocks affect real exchange rates?: New evidence for the United States," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, pages 53-69.
    17. Devereux, Michael B. & Smith, Gregor W. & Yetman, James, 2012. "Consumption and real exchange rates in professional forecasts," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, pages 33-42.
    18. Kamber, Güneş & Theodoridis, Konstantinos & Thoenissen, Christoph, 2017. "News-driven business cycles in small open economies," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, pages 77-89.
    19. repec:eee:jimfin:v:79:y:2017:i:c:p:99-114 is not listed on IDEAS
    20. Caterina Mendicino, 2014. "House prices and expectations," Research Bulletin, European Central Bank, vol. 21, pages 12-15.
    21. Hjortsoe, Ida, 2016. "Imbalances and fiscal policy in a monetary union," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 102(C), pages 225-241.
    22. Neri, Stefano & Nobili, Andrea & Conti, Antonio M., 2017. "Low inflation and monetary policy in the euro area," Working Paper Series 2005, European Central Bank.
    23. Paloma Lopez-Garcia & Filippo di Mauro, 2014. "Assessing competitiveness: initial results from the new compnet micro-based database," Research Bulletin, European Central Bank, vol. 21, pages 2-7.
    24. Sebastian Schmidt, 2014. "Dealing with a liquidity trap when government debt matters," Research Bulletin, European Central Bank, vol. 21, pages 8-11.
    25. Dmitriev, Alexandre, 2017. "Composite habits and international transmission of business cycles," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 1-34.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Productivity ; Trade ; Foreign exchange rates;

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • F42 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Policy Coordination and Transmission

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