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Fluctuations Internationales et Dynamique du Taux de Change

  • Jean-Olivier Hairault

    ()

    (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, EEP-PSE - Ecole d'Économie de Paris - Paris School of Economics)

  • Thepthida Sopraseuth

    (EEP-PSE - Ecole d'Économie de Paris - Paris School of Economics, PSE - Paris-Jourdan Sciences Economiques - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC))

Cet article propose une revue de la littérature des MEGIS en économie ouverte. Le MEGIS international de base est incapable de rendre compte de la synchronisation cyclique des PIB observée dans les données, de la faible corrélation croisée des consommations et des fortes variations du taux de change. Ces énigmes empiriques ont donné lieu à une suite d'enrichissements théoriques visant à rendre ces modèles plus conformes aux données. La contribution d'Obstfeld & Rogoff (1995) s'impose comme un modèle de référence car offrant des fondements microéconomiques à une cadre keynésien en économie ouverte. Les travaux récents tentent de dépasser le modèle néo-keynésien en intégrant des éléments provenant des théories du commerce international ou de choix de portefeuille.

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Paper provided by HAL in its series Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) with number halshs-00270284.

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Date of creation: 2008
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Publication status: Published in Economie et Prévision, Minefi - Direction de la prévision, 2008, 2-3 (183-184), pp.65-91
Handle: RePEc:hal:cesptp:halshs-00270284
Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://halshs.archives-ouvertes.fr/halshs-00270284
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