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La transmission internationale des fluctuations : une explication de la corrélation croisée des consommations

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  • Frédérique Bec

Abstract

[fre] La transmission internationale des fluctuations. Une explication de la corrélation croisée des consommations. . Cet article propose un modèle d'équilibre général à deux pays et un bien, qui rend compte de la faible corrélation observée entre les consommations des principaux pays industrialisés tout en préservant les qualités des modèles existants. Cette amélioration provient de la modification de l'indice de consommation pour inclure la consommation publique en plus de la consommation privée dans les préférences des agents, qui permet aux chocs de dépenses publiques d'affecter l'utilité marginale de la consommation. Le mo­dèle présenté reproduit également bien la forte corrélation observée entre taux d'épargne et taux d'investissement et le caractère contracyclique des exportations nettes. Ces trois caractéristiques du modèle sont très peu sensibles aux paramètres retenus pour décrire le processus suivi par les chocs de productivité, contrairement à la corrélation des produits. En effet, seule une forte corrélation des chocs de productivité domestiques et étrangers permet de reproduire cette statistique. Sur ce point, le modèle proposé ici rencontre le même problème que les modèles existants. [eng] The international transmission of real business cycles : explaining the cross-country consumption correlations. . This paper develops a simple one-sector, two-country equilibrium model which accounts for the relatively low cross-country consumption correlations without damaging the areas of success of existing models. This improvement arises from the modification of the consumption index in order to add public consumption to private consumption in the preference of the agents, which allows shocks to government purchases to aller the marginal utility of consumption. Then, mis model explains quite well both the high correlation between saving and investment and the countercyclicality of the net exports. These three features are robust to the choice of parameters governing the process of the productivity shocks. However, only a strong cross-correlation of home and forcing technology shocks enables the model to mimic the cross-country correlation of output.

Suggested Citation

  • Frédérique Bec, 1994. "La transmission internationale des fluctuations : une explication de la corrélation croisée des consommations," Revue Économique, Programme National Persée, vol. 45(1), pages 89-114.
  • Handle: RePEc:prs:reveco:reco_0035-2764_1994_num_45_1_409511
    Note: DOI:10.3406/reco.1994.409511
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